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Yahoo Fantasy Hockey: Scoring trends that can affect your team

Pittsburgh Penguins' Sidney Crosby celebrates his goal against the Columbus Blue Jackets during the first period of an NHL hockey game Thursday, Dec. 22, 2016, in Columbus, Ohio. (AP Photo/Jay LaPrete)
Pittsburgh Penguins’ Sidney Crosby celebrates his goal against the Columbus Blue Jackets during the first period of an NHL hockey game Thursday, Dec. 22, 2016, in Columbus, Ohio. (AP Photo/Jay LaPrete)

Dobber launched his fantasy hockey website Dobber Hockey back in 2005 and has been providing Puck Daddy with fantasy hockey knowledge since 2009. Steve Laidlaw is the Managing Editor for Dobber Hockey.

Following the season’s trends can be highly informative. The New York Rangers started off the season as one of the league’s hottest teams but have since cooled. Other teams have taken up their place. These ebbs and flows will continue all season but halfway through we can compare first quarter scoring rates vs. second quarter rates to see, which teams are trending up and which are trending down.

Yahoo
Yahoo

TRENDING UP

Pittsburgh Penguins

There’s no hotter offense than the Penguins who recently won an 8-7 track meet against the Washington Capitals that saw the most goals scored in an NHL game since 2011. Sidney Crosby has maintained his pace as one of the league’s scoring leaders but has since been joined by the red-hot Evgeni Malkin. With those two firing on all cylinders this team is frightening. They have the ability to turn relative nobodies like Conor Sheary and Jake Guentzel into fantasy relevant players.

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While they’ve been without Kris Letang for stretches of this run, Justin Schultz has picked up the slack, producing like a No. 1 defenseman. That’s good news because Letang is once again on the shelf.

Four goals per game is outrageous and something will have to give. Perhaps it will be Crosby’s obscene 21.6% shooting, which is already on its way down.

Their top scorers since December 1:

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Yahoo

Minnesota Wild

Like the Rangers early on, the Wild are rolling four lines and getting scoring contributions from all over. At this rate, they might boast five or six 60-point players. Check out their top scorers in 20 games since the start of December:

Yahoo
Yahoo

The smart money is to expect some pull back across the board. While secondary scorers like Mikael Granlund, Mikko Koivu and Jason Zucker are loaded with talent they are producing like top line guys. Treat these guys like 50-point players instead and be ready to jump off at the first sign of slippage or if a good offer comes along. The top line guys like Eric Staal and Charlie Coyle are safer propositions, although they are unlikely to continue producing at a point-per-game pace.

Most intriguing in this group is that neither Suter nor Parise is producing up to the superstar price tag or usage that they receive. You would expect Parise to be the top scoring winger on this team, especially with top line usage and linemates who are producing but it hasn’t clicked. At some point he’s at risk of sliding down the lineup.

New York Islanders

Unbeknownst to many, the Islanders have picked up their scoring game. Since December 1 the Islanders have played 20 games, here are their leading scorers:

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Yahoo

They went ahead and fired Jack Capuano on Tuesday, which could throw all this progress into disarray. I dive deeper into the coaching change here.

Calgary Flames

Getting Johnny Gaudreau back from a wrist injury was important but putting together the trio of Mikael Backlund, Matthew Tkachuk and Michael Frolik was vital for the Flames’ turn-around.

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Yahoo

Like many other top second lines, we should have some concern about Backlund and Co. maintaining their elite pace as we head into the second half. Gaudreau, Sean Monahan and Dougie Hamilton should be top targets on the Flames. But Backlund started this breakout in the second half of last season. In the calendar year of 2016 he scored 56 points, which is a pace he could easily sustain in the second half.

Buffalo Sabres

The story of the Sabres is really quite simple. Jack Eichel returned from injury on November 29. Since then the Sabres have moved from historically bad to run-of-the-mill bad. There is a lot of talent to be found on merely run-of-the-mill bad teams, as evidenced by their list of top scorers in 23 games since Eichel’s return:

Yahoo
Yahoo

TRENDING DOWN

Philadelphia Flyers

No team has fallen off more than the Flyers. Their top scorers have remained lethal but the secondary scoring has all but vanished:

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Yahoo

The second line with Sean Couturier, Travis Konecny and Jakub Voracek got blown up when Sean Couturier got hurt. He has since returned but they haven’t rediscovered the magic. Konecny has hit a wall. Mark Streit also missed a ton of time and will provide some help from the back end. Shayne Gostisbehere has inexplicably fallen off but should be expected to pick up his pace. He’s a buy-low candidate if ever there was one.

Arizona Coyotes

It would be unfair to scapegoat Max Domi’s injury for the reason the Coyotes have slipped this much. They are terrible and will likely start tanking at some point, which means there isn’t much fantasy value to be mined from this roster. Their top scorers since December 1:

Yahoo
Yahoo

If there’s any hope here it’s that some of these guys will be traded. Martin Hanzal could flourish in the right location, while Shane Doan could have value in deep leagues. Oliver Ekman-Larsson is the only sure thing on this team and even he will struggle to get more than 40 points.

Nashville Predators

The Predators came into the year as one of the most highly thought of teams in the league but it just hasn’t come together. Injuries have been part of the problem, especially now with both P.K. Subban and Roman Josi on the shelf but star forwards like Ryan Johansen, Filip Forsberg, Mike Ribeiro and James Neal have not been up to snuff. Check out their top scorers in 22 games since December 1:

Yahoo
Yahoo

Forsberg has started to turn things around with eight goals in his last 14 games but the point totals still aren’t quite there. It’s good to know that Mattias Ekholm can fill in whenever the Predators lose one of their star defensemen. We cannot expect good health in the second half from this team but if they get it there is potential to soar up the scoring rankings.

Steve Laidlaw is the Managing Editor of Dobberhockey. Follow him on Twitter @SteveLaidlaw

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