Yahoo Fantasy Hockey: NHL Trade Deadline Primer

(Ed. Note: We’re once again pleased to partner with Dobber Hockey to provide fantasy hockey insight throughout the NHL season. Here’s Steve Laidlaw, the Managing Editor of Dobber Hockey, as your new fantasy hockey smarty-pants!)

By Steve Laidlaw

With the NHL trade deadline fast approaching, we should look the impact a trade might have. Often, you’ll find that price tags in fantasy leagues go up on players who are dealt in the NHL, whether right or wrong. The extra attention just seems to ramp up the cost.

You’ll also find that it is often not the players who are traded who see a boost in value, but rather it is the players left behind who fill their role that jump to another level.

Kevin Shattenkirk – D – St. Louis Blues – 95% owned

Even with the Blues playing better hockey under Mike Yeo, they may still choose to sell Shattenkirk at the trade deadline, rather than lose him for nothing this summer. Shattenkirk is one of the premiere power-play quarterbacks in the NHL. Over the past three years, he ranks second to only Nicklas Backstrom in points/60 with the man-advantage.

The Blues boast the league’s sixth most efficient power play, clicking on 22% of their opportunities. They will no doubt suffer in this department when Shattenkirk is dealt. They do, however boast an elite goal scorer in Vladimir Tarasenko and wily veterans like Alexander Steen. They also have capable replacements in Alex Pietrangelo and Colton Parayko. It seems safe that the Blues’ power play won’t fall to the bottom just because they move Shattenkirk.

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One of Pietrangelo or Parayko will see a spike in value grabbing Shattenkirk’s minutes on the top power play unit. Pietrangelo was the guy that Ken Hitchcock would call on whenever Shattenkirk missed time with injury but Yeo might opt for the more dynamic option in Parayko. Parayko projects as the better No. 1 option with his mobility, playmaking and big shot from the point. There is only one Brent Burns but there are shades of Burns in Parayko’s game. He’s a 23-year-old sophomore with plenty of time to grow into a bigger role. He has star potential that could be realized after a Shattenkirk trade.

One would assume that any team acquiring Shattenkirk will look to use him on their No. 1 power play unit. He should provide a solid boost, however, if he moves to a team lacking the star talent that the Blues have in Steen and Tarasenko, his value could take a hit. He’d also lose value moving to a team with a No. 1 defenseman already established.

Ben Bishop – G – Tampa Bay Lightning – 93% owned

Since returning from injury Bishop has a 6-2-1 record with a 0.920 SV% and a 2.17 GAA. Since Bishop went down with injury Andrei Vasilevskiy has a 5-8-4 record, with a 0.901 SV% and a 3.01 GAA. Unless the Lightning decide to wave the white flag, Bishop is going nowhere. Furthermore, he is absolutely Tampa Bay’s best option in goal. There is little to suggest that Vasilevskiy can be relied on as a No. 1 this season, although you can be damn sure he’ll be their starter next season.

Matt Duchene – C/RW – Colorado Avalanche – 75% owned

Fantasy interest in Duchene picked up the second rumours of his availability in trades were released. Duchene escaping the wasteland that is Colorado and moving to a contender could unleash his point-per-game potential. But everyone knows that the market for players with term is at its best around the draft. Barring a panicked decision Duchene and teammate Gabriel Landeskog won’t be going anywhere until this summer. Perhaps the best move for fantasy owners is to try and move these players now, as people anticipate what their value could be, if only they were dealt.

Martin Hanzal – C – Arizona Coyotes – 8% owned

Hanzal’s real life value far surpasses his fantasy value, where he is only effective in deeper leagues that score peripheral categories like faceoff wins, hits and penalty minutes. Hanzal has had some seasons of fleeting fantasy value where his role as the No. 1 centerman in Arizona exposed him to the best wingers and optimal power play time. Unfortunately, he never really broke out as injuries have always derailed his performance.

This season, Hanzal’s scoring is way down, producing just 1.18 points/60 at 5-on-5 but much of that decline has come from assists. He ranks in the top 60 of the entire in goals/60 at 0.91 and that’s in spite of his surroundings. Hanzal’s numbers have perked up of late with five goals in eight games since Max Domi returned to the lineup but he continues to be a non-factor in the assist game.

Hanzal does offer some value as a power-play producer, skating on the Coyotes’ top power play unit. However, he has never been particularly strong in this regard. His career high for power-play points is only 13, which would leave him on the fringes of fantasy value in most leagues.

Hanzal, if dealt, is looking at a depth role elsewhere so his value is unlikely to go up. However, the hole he leaves in the Coyote lineup is where the opportunity lies.

Rookie centerman Christian Dvorak has come on strong since the All-Star break with six goals and nine points in his last nine games. Some of this is just a shooting percentage flurry but he looks more comfortable than he did in the first half. Get Dvorak some top unit power play time and his productivity might surge.

Radim Vrbata – RW – Arizona Coyotes – 16% owned

Hanzal’s teammate is one of the most enticing rental players available at the deadline. Despite playing in an offensive desert, Vrbata has produced points at an outstanding rate. He is tied for 55^th in league scoring with 41 points in 58 games, despite next to no help. His 5-on-5 rate has rebounded from last year’s nightmare back up to 1.90 points/60, tying him with star producers like Kevin Hayes and Artemi Panarin. Vrbata also remains a strong power-play producer, already with 13 power-play points on the year. What’s more, Vrbata continues to be an elite shot producer, ranking 22^nd in the league with 176 on the year.

Unlike most rentals who would see their fantasy value diminished moving from a team where they are in a top line role, Vrbata has the goods to continue to produce at this level with a new team. Teams like Calgary looking for an sniper to complement their elite playmaker (Johnny Gaudreau) could add Vrbata in a top line role and expect him to be up to the task.

There are certainly some situations where Vrbata could wind up that would see his minutes greatly diminished but that doesn’t have to be the case. Vrbata should already be owned in more leagues than he is currently – plus/minus be damned – but a trade elsewhere could push him to another level.

Thomas Vanek – LW/RW – Red Wings – 31% owned

Like Vrbata, Vanek is under-owned in fantasy leagues despite his top-notch production in volatile surroundings. Vanek is third in the league scoring 2.94 points/60 at 5-on-5. No doubt, some of this is based on favourable shooting percentages but it’s a return to the elite scoring that Vanek has displayed for much of his career:

Erase those two wasted years in Minnesota and perhaps we’d still be celebrating Vanek as a star. Injuries have also conspired to keep Vanek’s profile low but he has produced at a 66-point pace when healthy.

Like Vrbata, Vanek appears to have the goods to fit in as a genuine top line performer wherever he goes. Fit has been an issue for Vanek in the past so a change of scenery may not be a positive. Detroit seems to have found a sweet spot for Vanek, keeping his minutes lower to reduce his wear and tear.

Vanek’s linemates Frans Nielsen and Andreas Athansiou aren’t exactly household names but hold fringe fantasy value (particularly Athanasiou, who could be dynamite if Detroit gave him more than 13 minutes per game.) Their value goes down if Vanek is wearing a different sweater next week.

Patrick Eaves – RW – Dallas Stars – 25% owned

Eaves is on pace for a 30-goal season and he’s barely getting any fantasy love. It’s hard to see how a trade would help that at all. NHL teams should be very cautious in paying for Eaves whose production has been inflated predominantly by his power-play production.

Eaves has developed into one of the best net-front men in the league, banging in chances created by superstar teammates Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin. 11 of Eaves’ 21 goals on the year have come with the man-advantage. Unless a team has the need for a net-front man they should shop elsewhere for scoring help.

Odds are that any team acquiring Eaves will have no such need. Nor will they have superstars like Seguin or Benn to pair Eaves with. He is 32 years old and has already set a career high for points with 37. No situation could be better than the one he is in now.

The Stars have a ton of options available to replace Eaves should they move him. Cody Eakin is having a terrible year but has found a home on Benn’s wing and has seen some top power play usage this season. Eakin has five points in his last eight games. Youngster Brett Ritchie is a big body with some draft pedigree who might be good option in the net-front some day and the Stars may opt to see what they have in him. Antoine Roussel is a sneaky good option in multi-category leagues who has good enough hands to fill this void in a pinch.

Patrick Sharp – LW/RW – Dallas Stars – 51% owned

It is amazing how many people are clinging to Sharp, despite Eaves being a FAR superior fantasy option on his own team. Sharp can still skate at a high level but his effectiveness as a scorer has been steadily in decline:

Sharp was able to remain a fantasy contributor last season because of his contributions on the power play, racking up seven goals and 24 points with the man-advantage. That mark tied for 20^th in the entire league. This season, he has been bumped by Eaves and the power play numbers have vanished. He has just one power-play point on the year. Unless he’s going to a team with a hole on their power play, it seems unlikely that Sharp is going to become fantasy relevant. Whatever it is that folks are clinging to, it appears to be a fantasy.

Jaroslav Halak – G – New York Islanders – 21% owned

There are still plenty of folks hanging on to Halak and you can understand why. He is a capable goaltender with a career 0.916 SV% who has proven at various times that he can be a starter. He had the worst first half of his career leading to a demotion to the AHL where he has been a beast ever since. The AHL is a different animal but it would be safe to assume that Halak has his confidence back.

The Islanders have since committed to Thomas Greiss giving their new starter a three-year contract extension. But contract extensions don’t protect against injury. If Greiss goes down, Halak is back in the No. 1 gig for a resurgent Islander team.

Halak could also be traded, although the destinations where he could make a difference are slim. Ultimately, it is unlikely that Halak is seen in the NHL again. Teams wouldn’t trade for Halak to be their back up when he has another year at $4.5 million left on his contract. But goalie is the position where a player’s value can swing the most. One minute he’s in the NHL, the next he’s starting 10 in a row. Don’t make a move on Halak expecting to get any value from him but there are worse options to roll the dice on.

Jarome Iginla – RW – Colorado Avalanche – 16% owned

Iginla was a gem for a long time but his fantasy usefulness has run its course. He has been one of the absolute worst scorers at even strength all season, registering just 0.77 points/60. Iginla is a power-play specialist who isn’t even particularly good at that gig anymore. It’s hard to separate what Iginla has produced from his horrific surroundings, but even if he gets back to last season’s scoring rate (1.55 points/60) he still won’t be fantasy relevant.

Brian Boyle – C/LW – Tampa Bay Lightning – 2% owned

Like Hanzal, Boyle has value in deeper leagues that score many peripheral categories. Due to injury, he has been thrust into a bigger role skating 1:36 as a net-front option on Tampa’s second power play unit. He has added some marginal scoring value in this role, as well as contributing over two SOG per game for the first time in his career. It’s hard to see him used in this role on a contender. He’s a helpful player but only in the deepest of fantasy leagues.

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Steve Laidlaw is the Managing Editor of Dobberhockey. Follow him on Twitter @SteveLaidlaw

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