Yahoo Daily Fantasy Hockey: Friday picks

By Chris Morgan

The NBA just had its (largely lackluster) trade deadline, and the NHL will follow with a deadline of its own soon. For now, however, we can focus our attention on Friday’s four games. Here are some players from Friday’s slate that I think are worth targeting and avoiding.

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GOALIE

Braden Holtby, WAS vs. EDM ($36): The Oilers have had a fine year, but they haven’t been nearly as impressive as the Caps, who have been one of the best teams in the league. Additionally, Washington has a sterling 24-5-1 record at home. Holtby has also been outstanding, as he has a league-best 1.99 GAA, not to mention a .927 save percentage. As good as the Oilers may be, Holtby still has a strong chance of picking up a win, and his numbers are so great that it’s hard not to have faith in him in any matchup. He’s a little pricey, but worth it.

GOALIE TO AVOID

Kari Lehtonen, DAL vs. ARI ($28): You might see the Stars getting a home date with a Coyotes squad that’s on the second night of a back-to-back, and you might want to take advantage. However, you’d be advised to steer clear of Lehtonen and his .902 save percentage. He’s only averaged 8.8 fantasy points per game, the fewest of any goalie in line to start Friday. The Stars have allowed 3.2 goals per game this year, and their penalty kill ranks last in the league. The Coyotes are a decent matchup, but they probably consider Dallas to be just as good a matchup. If Lehtonen was a little cheaper, maybe you could justify rolling the dice, but you can’t do it at this price.

CENTER

Kyle Turris, OTT at CAR ($15): In his last five starts, Cam Ward has a 3.66 GAA and .878 save percentage, and in his last 12 starts, those numbers are 3.78 GAA and .871. His hot start to the season is well over the horizon at this point. Meanwhile, Turris has tallied eight points in his last 10 games and he’s already cleared the 20-goal mark. While Carolina has the NHL’s second-ranked penalty kill on the season, it’s just 17thin February, presumably due in part to Ward’s collapse. Turris is also surprisingly cheap for a player who’s averaged 6.7 fantasy points per game.

CENTER TO AVOID

Leon Draisaitl, EDM at WAS ($22): It’s hard to be skeptical about Draisaitl’s teammate Connor McDavid, even against Washington, but the German isn’t quite on The Next One’s level. As mentioned, Holtby has excellent stats, and it helps him that the Capitals have only allowed 28.0 shots on net per game. On top of that, Draisaitl has tallied 20 of his 53 points with the extra man, and the Capitals have the seventh-ranked penalty kill. It won’t be easy for Draisaitl to have his typical power-play success.

WING

Radim Vrbata, ARI at DAL ($16): Vrbata has been a rare bright spot for the Coyotes offensively this season. He’s notched a point in seven straight games, and he’s tallied 179 shots on net in 59 games overall. As previously mentioned, the Stars have allowed 3.20 goals per game, which is second-worst in the NHL. In February, they’ve been even worse, as they pace the league by allowing a whopping 3.67 goals per game. Vrbata also has 13 power-play points, and he could add more against that terrible Dallas penalty kill.

Patrick Eaves, DAL vs. ARI ($15): The Stars have certainly been bad defensively, but the same goes for the Coyotes. They’ve allowed 3.14 goals per game, and their 33.8 shots allowed per game are second-worst in the league. Arizona will also be playing on the second of back-to-back nights, and with backup netminder Louis Domingue banged up, Mike Smith may have to pull double duty. Eaves has had an age-32 breakout season, as he’s already set new career bests in goals (21) and points (37), including a hefty portion of power-play production. (On top of all their other issues, the Coyotes have the 26th-ranked penalty kill.) The veteran hasn’t slowed down after his strong start either, as he’s tallied 30 shots on net in his last eight games.

WINGS TO AVOID

Jeff Skinner, CAR vs. OTT ($21): Skinner’s offensive output has cooled a bit recently, as he only has four points in his last 14 games. Ottawa, meanwhile, has only allowed 2.62 goals per game, and now that Craig Anderson has returned to action, he qualifies for the statistical leaderboards, which means he’s tied for third in the league in save percentage at .927. Ottawa also has the eighth-ranked penalty kill, and a full third of Skinner’s points have come with the extra man.

Brett Connolly, WAS vs. EDM ($18): Sure, Holtby is a nice bet to pick up a win and have a good game, but that’s because he’s been great and Washington has been strong defensively. Edmonton has actually been almost as good at goal prevention, allowing just 2.54 per game. This actually has the makings of a low-scoring contest. Connolly seems to be a bit overpriced, considering that he’s only averaged 4.6 fantasy points per game. He’s only averaged 11:03 of ice time, including only 32 seconds on the power play. Additionally, while he does have 12 goals, they’ve come courtesy of an unsustainably high 19.0 shooting percentage.

DEFENSEMEN

Oliver Ekman-Larsson, ARI at DAL ($18): Ekman-Larsson has picked things up a bit, as he has seven points in his last 10 games. Granted, he also only has 11 shots on goal in that time, so he’s been reliant on his teammates to finish plays to get him assists, but with the number of goals Dallas has been giving up, there’s at least a decent chance of that happening. Additionally, Ekman-Larsson has averaged 3:48 with the extra man, and he’s tallied 17 points in that time. That’s encouraging, given the Stars’ league-worst penalty kill. Also, while Ekman-Larsson doesn’t block a ton of shots, he has gotten in front of 64 in 58 games. The Stars have averaged 59.5 shot attempts per 60 minutes, seventh in the NHL, so Ekman-Larsson should have a decent chance of adding a block or two in this one.

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Aaron Ekblad, FLA vs. CGY ($17): Ekblad has been getting plenty of offensive opportunities, as he’s started a whopping 40.2 percent of his shifts in the offensive zone – second-most on the Panthers and quite a high percentage for a defenseman. That’s probably part of the reason why Ekblad has put a whopping 184 shots on net in 59 games. He’s finally tallied some points recently as well, picking up four in his last five games. The Flames will be on the second night of a back-to-back, and they’ve allowed 2.88 goals per game this year. Their goaltenders also have a collective save percentage of .900, which is far from impressive.

DEFENSEMEN TO AVOID

Justin Faulk, CAR vs. OTT ($18): Faulk doesn’t have a lot of help on Carolina’s blue line, and things have not gone well for the Hurricanes on the whole recently. As such, perhaps it’s kind of impressive that Faulk’s averaged 6.0 fantasy points per game. In a vacuum, though, that’s not a particularly notable number. He only has 25 points this season, and just eight of those have come on the power play – a huge drop from last year. As mentioned, Ottawa has a strong penalty kill, so it will be hard for Faulk to have much luck there anyway. In his four games since returning from his latest absence, Anderson has a 1.76 GAA and .944 save percentage.

Adam Larsson, EDM at WAS ($17): Larsson is day-to-day, which is reason enough to be concerned. However, even if he were healthy, this still wouldn’t be a good matchup, considering how formidable the Capitals have been defensively. Beyond that, it’s odd to see Larsson as the most expensive Oilers defenseman, considering that he’s only averaged 4.5 fantasy points per game. There’d be reason for skepticism about Larsson against Washington at any price, but $17 seems particularly rich.

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