World Cup draw winners and losers: No 'Group of Death,' and life for England

The World Cup draw, which went down Friday in Doha amid awkward glitz and glamor, inevitably leads to a ravenous search for the "Group of Death." It's the name that, over decades of World Cup history, has been given to the four-team group out of which any two-team pairing could emerge. It's the group from which contenders will crash and burn, ultimately undone by the draw's devastating randomness.

But in 2022, there isn't one.

There's no Group of Death.

There is, instead, one Group of Life that skewed the draw, and defined its winners and losers.

To identify it, we took the average Elo rating of the four teams in each group (an objective measure) and the average power ranking of the four teams (our subjective measure). A comparison of the eight groups, based roughly on those two metrics, revealed that no single four-team pod stands head and shoulders above the rest. The top four average Elo ratings were within eight points of one another, on an approximately 2,000-point scale.

But both metrics, like conventional wisdom, suggest that Group A is the weakest of the eight.

World Cup groups, ranked by difficulty

(Rankings assume that stronger teams will win the three June playoffs. A higher Elo rating is better. A lower power ranking is better.)

1. Group G (Elo: 1887.75 | Power rank: 13.75)
2. Group E (Elo: 1886 | Power rank: 16)
3. Group B (Elo: 1880.5 | Power rank: 15.25)
4. Group F (Elo: 1865 | Power rank: 16.75)
5. Group D (Elo: 1880 | Power rank: 15)
6. Group C (Elo: 1847.25 | Power rank: 17.5)
7. Group H (Elo: 1812 | Power rank: 18)
8. Group A (Elo: 1792 | Power rank: 19.75)

Group A and its Round of 16 partner, Group B, therefore give life to the biggest winners of Friday's draw.

World Cup draw winners

England (Group B: United States, Iran, Wales/Scotland/Ukraine)

England got the best of all worlds: Incredible narratives (a former colony and, potentially, a fellow Brit), no clear challenger to its throne atop the group, and a potential walk in the park to the quarterfinals.

The group, as a whole, is not weak. It has no pushover. The U.S. is dangerous. Iran, the best team from Asia, will be difficult. But England should be able to ascend to the top of the group, and that's where its real prize awaits: a Round of 16 matchup with the runner-up from a group whose best two teams are the Netherlands and Senegal. Even if the Three Lions slip to second, their position opposite Group A will be valuable.

Netherlands (Group A: Qatar, Senegal, Ecuador)

Any Pot 2 team that drew Qatar from Pot 1 was inevitably going to be a winner. The Dutch are that team. The rest of their draw didn't break as kindly — Senegal is the second-strongest Pot 3 team, and Ecuador is one of the tougher outs from Pot 4. But the Netherlands, seeded second, will be favored to top the group, potentially setting up a Sergiño Dest Derby against the U.S. in the Round of 16.

Argentina (Group C: Mexico, Poland, Saudi Arabia)

Argentina got just about its dream draw: Arguably the weakest Pot 2 team, arguably the weakest European team (each group had to have at least one), and definitely the weakest Pot 4 team.

Neither the Mexico match nor the Poland game will be a luxurious cruise, but Lionel Messi and company should win this group with relative easy. And as long as France doesn't slip up in Group D, there are no landmines waiting in the Round of 16.

World Cup draw losers

Belgium (Group F: Croatia, Morocco, Canada)

If there's a non-Qatar top seed that could fail to advance, it's probably Belgium — aging, somewhat shallow, and now with a tricky group.

Some of those same adjectives apply to Croatia, but the 2018 finalists are still strong. Morocco is the second-best African side. Canada, in qualifying at least, was the best in North and Central America — and has speed and firepower up top that will trouble Belgium.

Brazil (Group G: Switzerland, Serbia, Cameroon)

Brazil is the best team in the world. It should win Group G, no problem. But if there was any chance of a shock, this is the type of draw that could cause it. Switzerland topped Italy in European qualifying. Serbia topped Portugal. In one-off games, beating Brazil is unlikely, but isn't unthinkable.

Cameroon (Group G: Brazil, Switzerland, Serbia)

Cameroon's reward for the most dramatic qualifying clincher this cycle?

The best team in the world, and the best team from Pot 3.

Cameroon is the real loser of the Group G minefield.

Japan (Group E: Spain, Germany, Costa Rica)

Spain isn't a true loser, even drawn alongside Germany, because the two European giants should still advance comfortably. The loser is Japan, who will have to conquer at least one of the two — and Costa Rica, who took 19 points from its last seven qualifiers, if Los Ticos win their playoff against New Zealand.