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World Cup 2018, England vs Panama permutations: What do Gareth Southgate's side need to qualify?

Mark Critchley

England are one win away from confirming their place in the knockout stages of the World Cup 2018 and progressing past the tournament’s group stages for the first time since South Africa 2010.

After Belgium’s emphatic 5-2 victory over Tunisia in Group G, three points from Panama in Nizhny Novgorod on Sunday will be enough for Gareth Southgate's side to secure qualification.

A surprise draw against the CONCACAF qualifiers would damage England’s chances of progression, but not fatally so.

A shock defeat, however, would leave much resting on Thursday’s final Group G encounter with Belgium in Kaliningrad.

If England win...

Victory would seal qualification for the World Cup round of 16 with a game to spare. The winner of England’s final group game against Belgium would then be crowned winners of Group G.

A draw against Roberto Martinez’s side would see Group G’s top spot settled on goal difference. England’s goal difference is currently +1 after one game, while Belgium’s is +6 after two.

If England draw…

A draw against Panama is not a disastrous result but it would leave Southgate’s men needing at least a point in the final game against Belgium to secure qualification.

Drawing with Panama, losing to Belgium and Panama beating Tunisia on Thursday would leave England level on points with the Central Americans, with qualification to the round of 16 decided on goal difference. Panama’s goal difference is currently -3.

If England lose...

In the case of defeat, England and Panama would be level on three points going into the final game. Whichever team gets the better result in its final group fixture would qualify.

In this scenario, a three-way tie with Belgium - with all three teams level on six points - is possible. Qualification would be decided on goal difference.

What are the World Cup’s group stage tiebreakers?

When two or more teams are level on points, they are separated according to the following tiebreakers.

  1. Goal difference

  2. Goals scored

  3. Head-to-head points

  4. Head-to-head goal difference

  5. Head-to-head goals scored

  6. Fair play points

  7. Drawing of lots