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Why Wichita State could be a polarizing bubble team again this year

Wichita State is an impressive 25-4 but has only beaten one team 97th or better in the RPI. (AP)
Wichita State is an impressive 25-4 but has only beaten one team 97th or better in the RPI. (AP)

When the NCAA tournament selection committee convened in New York last March, assessing Wichita State was one of its toughest decisions.

On one hand, the Shockers boasted only one victory over a team 68th or better in the RPI, hardly the typical resume of an at-large contender. On the other hand, advanced metrics suggested the Shockers were one of the nation’s 15 best teams because so many of their victories came by massive margins.

Ultimately the selection committee split the difference and sent Wichita State to the First Four, a decision that angered coach Gregg Marshall. The Shockers responded by proving themselves anew, outclassing Vanderbilt and Arizona before running out of energy against Miami in their third game in five days.

“We beat Vanderbilt by 20. We had Arizona down by 25,” Marshall said. “Obviously we were a little better than an 11 seed.”

One year later, Wichita State (25-4, 15-1) again appears to be a difficult team for the selection committee to evaluate. Once again, the Shockers look like a surefire NCAA tournament-caliber team even if their resume is lacking victories over NCAA tournament-caliber competition.

Fellow Valley contender Illinois State is the only team Wichita State has beaten with an RPI of 97th or better, but the Shockers don’t have any losses to opponents outside the top 50. Their average margin of victory is also a ridiculous 24.7 points, a big reason they rose to 13th in the KenPom rankings over the weekend and reentered the AP Top 25 on Monday morning.

“Usually it’s the power-five schools that claim they pass the eye test,” Marshall said. “In this regard, I think we’re the ones that pass the eye test. If you watch basketball — if you have any clue and watch basketball — there’s no doubt we’re one of the top 37 at-large teams in the country.”

Wichita State is among the nation’s most polarizing bubble teams on bracket projections, earning a No. 8 seed from Yahoo Sports and a No. 9 seed from ESPN.com yet finding itself among the first four teams left out of the field at USA Today and CBSSports.com. The Shockers can remove all doubt by winning Arch Madness and claiming the Valley’s automatic bid, but otherwise they’ll be sweating it out on Selection Sunday for a second straight year.

What Marshall hopes the selection committee considers is that Wichita State tried to give itself chances for marquee wins. The Oklahoma team the Shockers beat went from the Final Four last year to the Big 12 basement this season. The LSU team Wichita State clobbered is in the midst of its worst season in years. Even Michigan State, which edged the Shockers in the Bahamas, is not as formidable as usual this year.

Marshall also argues the selection committee should take Wichita State’s recent history of outperforming its seed into account. The Shockers have won nine NCAA tournament games the past four years despite receiving better than a No. 7 seed only once.

“It happens every year,” Marshall said. “Last year we were ranked in the Top 25, and we got an 11 seed. The year before that, I’m thinking we’re a 4 or a 5 seed and we get a 7. Then we promptly beat Indiana and Kansas. Even the year we were a 1 seed, they put Kentucky opposite us and then we had Michigan, Louisville and Duke in the same region.”

That Wichita State is once again in contention for an NCAA bid is a testament to the program Marshall has built. The Shockers graduated program pillars Fred VanVleet and Ron Baker last spring, yet they’ve hardly slipped at all on either end of the floor.

Wichita State is 17th nationally in defensive efficiency thanks to a front line that contests shots at the rim and an athletic perimeter corps that prides itself on staying in front of opposing guards. The Shockers are 18th nationally in offensive efficiency because of a balanced offense that’s much less predictable than last season’s Baker- and VanVleet-heavy attack.

Forward Markis McDuffie leads Wichita State in scoring at 11.8 points per game. Five other players average at least 7.8 points per game for the Shockers, who do not have a single senior in their 10-man rotation.

“Last year, at the end of shot clock, we were predictable,” Marshall said. “The ball was going to be in Fred or Ron’s hands. This year, we have five guys who can strike you. A variety of guys can create a shot for themselves or for others.”

Balanced offense and formidable defense make Marshall optimistic Wichita State can do some damage again in the NCAA tournament — if the Shockers get there. Marshall is less certain his team get the benefit of the doubt if it leaves its fate in the selection committee’s hands.

“Based on our history, how confident can I be?” Marshall said, and he’s right.

Either Wichita State secure the Valley’s automatic bid by winning its conference tournament, or another stressful Selection Sunday lies ahead.

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Jeff Eisenberg is the editor of The Dagger on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at daggerblog@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!