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Why Canelo-Khan isn’t exactly a classic speed vs. power matchup

LAS VEGAS – There’s no reason to be cynical, even though it would be easy to do so when examining Saturday’s middleweight title bout at T-Mobile Arena between WBC champion Canelo Alvarez and challenger Amir Khan.

Promoter Oscar De La Hoya has tried, almost desperately at times, to frame the bout as a battle pitting Khan’s speed against Alvarez’s power.

Amir Khan has been knocked out at lightweight and super lightweight. (Getty Images)
Amir Khan has been knocked out at lightweight and super lightweight. (Getty Images)

Unquestionably, Khan’s hand speed is his biggest advantage in a fight in which he’s completely overmatched in terms of size.

This is a good fight, an interesting matchup, though it’s hardly the super fight that some in the media have so breathlessly dubbed it.

Khan has fought 34 times as a pro, with 30 bouts coming at super lightweight or below. Alvarez has fought 48 times, with 23 fights coming above welterweight. He’ll likely walk into the ring on Saturday after rehydrating from Friday’s weigh-in at more than 170 pounds.

The fight is on pay-per-view, and pay-per-views only tend to sell in large numbers when the public believes that the underdog has a legitimate chance to win.

And so De La Hoya, whose company’s biggest star is Alvarez, has spent much of the past two months extolling Khan’s virtues.

“I was at Amir Khan's training camp [last month] with all the media and he's looking incredible,” De La Hoya said. “He's looking strong. He's looking powerful, and he has not lost his speed. He's looking fast.”

De La Hoya’s Golden Boy Promotions released a video of him discussing major fights in boxing history that presented the kind of speed vs. power contrast that Khan-Alvarez does.

Of the famous 1974 heavyweight title fight between then-champion George Foreman and Muhammad Ali, dubbed “The Rumble in the Jungle,” De La Hoya said, “George Foreman had a record at the time of 40-0, 37 KOs so he was unstoppable, he was knocking everyone out. Muhammad Ali used his speed, used his great footwork and he used the famous rope-a-dope [and] he lured Foreman into the trap and knocked him out.”

The message he was delivering was clear: Speed often trumps power. Khan has a chance to win, so don’t pass on the fight because you think Canelo will squash him. Oddsmakers have made Alvarez a better than 3-1 favorite for that very reason.

He pointed out how the slick and speedy Sugar Ray Leonard moved up from welterweight and scored a decision over Marvelous Marvin Hagler in a middleweight title bout, a result that is disputed by many to this day, nearly three decades after it occurred.

Canelo Alvarez, left, and Oscar De La Hoya are making the smart play in waiting to face Gennady Golovkin. (Getty Images)
Canelo Alvarez, left, and Oscar De La Hoya are making the smart play in waiting to face Gennady Golovkin. (Getty Images)

“Speed prevails in this one against the most feared fighter on the planet, the great Marvelous Marvin Hagler, with tremendous punching power,” De La Hoya said. “Speed was just too much for power on that night.”

Of course, Alvarez is not remotely close to Hagler, and Khan isn’t in the same universe as Leonard, but the point was made.

But the Golden Boy took a subtle shift when he analyzed the 1990 super lightweight bout won by Julio Cesar Chavez via a late stoppage over speedy Meldrick Taylor.

Taylor did for most of that fight what Khan will need to do to defeat Alvarez: He controlled the distance, he used his legs and he worked his angles. Taylor moved in and out, peppering Chavez with shots before sliding away.

Chavez relentlessly stalked forward, throwing vicious punches, and Taylor fans were constantly forced to bite their nails. They could never breathe easy for a second.

Taylor was up on the cards after 11 rounds and would have won a split decision if he’d made it to the final bell. Though Taylor had boxed beautifully throughout, Chavez’s punches had taken a severe toll and one final combination in the last 10 seconds forced referee Richard Steele to stop it, giving Chavez an improbable win.

“A classic battle of speed vs. power,” De La Hoya said of Taylor-Chavez. “Taylor with the speed was beating Chavez every single round, every single minute, but at the same time he was taking a lot of punishment. In the 12th round, guess what happens? Chavez knocks him out with two seconds left and Chavez wins the fight.”

One judge had Chavez up 6-5 after 11 rounds, while the other two judges had Taylor up 8-3 and 9-2. Speed was trumping power for a bit, until the power became too much.

The message: Boxing is unpredictable. You never know who will win until the final bell.

There is a lot of truth in what De La Hoya says, though the match is hardly one of genius.

It was clear from the moment in November when Alvarez’s hand was raised after he defeated Miguel Cotto for the WBC version of the belt that De La Hoya was plotting to do whatever he could to avoid putting Alvarez into the ring with Gennady Golovkin.

Gennady Golovkin casts quite a shadow over the middleweight division. (Getty Images)
Gennady Golovkin casts quite a shadow over the middleweight division. (Getty Images)

Let’s state the obvious here, as well: Alvarez is not afraid of Golovkin. If anyone says he is, laugh out loud, because it is not true.

Alvarez is only 25, but he’s learned the business extremely well. Boxing is the ultimate risk/reward sport.

Alvarez made the point at the postfight news conference following the Cotto win that he would fight at what he called “my” weight class, which is the super welterweight limit of 154 pounds.

Alvarez turned pro at 15 and fought at 139 pounds. But he was a super welterweight by his 18th birthday and has largely fought there ever since.

What De La Hoya and Alvarez have chosen to do, and it’s the smart thing even if it isn’t exactly what the fans want, is to kind of sit on the title a bit, even if the true weight limit is 160 pounds.

Ask yourself this question: On Nov. 21, the night Alvarez defeated Cotto, who thought the most deserving challenger for the belt would be Khan?

Khan is a quality fighter whose biggest weaknesses has been a chin that can’t always stand up to the heaviest blows. This is a guy who was knocked out at lightweight by Breidis Prescott and at super lightweight by Danny Garcia.

When De La Hoya put the Alvarez-Khan fight together, he did so knowing that Alvarez’s size would be the dominant factor in the fight. Yes, there is a risk that Khan could fight a perfect 36 minutes and paint Alvarez while avoiding the heavy shots in return, but the risk is minimal compared to the alternative.

The alternative would be to be standing across from Triple-G in a bout that would be 50-50 at best and more than likely one that would lean in Golovkin’s favor.

But dispense with the notion that Alvarez is ducking Golovkin; he’s not. He’s playing the longtime boxing game of taking what you can get before getting out.

If he beats Khan on Saturday and then, say, Cotto in a rematch in the fall, as De La Hoya admits is possible, he’ll make millions and still have the Golovkin fight ahead of him for 2017.

The risk for both Alvarez and Golovkin is that something unexpected happens, that one or both of them loses or gets injured, and the bout that could be the defining match of their careers doesn’t occur.

Khan is the first hurdle that Alvarez needs to overcome, but there is little that Alvarez hasn’t seen.

“I’ve faced every kind of style,” Alvarez said. “There are so many different styles I’ve faced. I’ve faced people who are fast and elusive. I have the experience to be victorious [Saturday].

“Obviously, I have to be prepared, but yes, I have faced guys like him.”

But Khan has never faced anyone quite like Alvarez. Oh, he did fight, and defeat, the hard-punching Marcos Maidana in a 2010 bout at super lightweight, but in Alvarez, he’ll be facing a much bigger and more powerful guy.

And that is largely the difference in Alvarez-Khan compared to the legendary fights that De La Hoya highlighted.

This is a far bigger leap up in size for Khan. And while it’s not impossible for him to win, his margin to win is razor thing.

Even the most minor of errors could sink him.