Who's the Kentucky Derby favorite? Just look in Bob Baffert's barn

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Thoroughbred racing is an emotional ambush, a sport that lures in romantics and then finds creatively cruel ways to break their hearts.

There are incredible highs, for sure. But every dreamer who has been in the game for any length of time bears the scar tissue of bad breaks, bad karma, bad beats.

And few racing endeavors are more rife with risk than trying to guide a talented young horse all the way to the Promised Land: the starting gate of the Kentucky Derby.

They are frighteningly fragile creatures, with so many things that can go wrong on a given day. A misstep, a sudden cough, a reversal of training form – all can turn a precocious contender into another instantly forgotten casualty on the Triple Crown trail. That attrition is why the big trainers load their barns with 2-year-olds – in hopes that one or two will still be fast and fit when they turn 3, and make it to the first Saturday in May.

In January, Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert nominated 15 horses for the 2015 Triple Crown. That he is now mere days away from starting two of them in the Derby is a victory. That those two – American Pharoah and Dortmund – are the strong favorites is Baffert's Powerball moment.

Even in a career crammed with glory – three Kentucky Derby victories, five Preakness triumphs, one Belmont and 10 Breeders' Cup wins – the 62-year-old Californian has never brought a hand this powerful to Churchill Downs. It's debatable whether anyone has. Longtime Derby oddsmaker Mike Battaglia said the American Pharoah-Dortmund combo may be the best any trainer has had since Ben A. Jones had Citation and Coaltown run 1-2 here … in 1948.

In a sport that teems with bad luck, Baffert has had so much good fortune this spring that he doesn't seem to trust it.

"The higher you are, like we are now," Baffert said Sunday morning, "the fall is pretty steep."

He knows what the impact of a precipitous fall feels like. Still can feel a few of them in his core. This is a guy who suffered a heart attack traveling to the Dubai World Cup in 2012, yet he may tell you that's not the worst thing the sport has done to him.

"Nobody has tougher losses than me," Baffert said, and despite all the winning he can make a legitimate claim to that unfortunate title.

In the 36 years since the last Triple Crown was won, nobody has come closer than Baffert.

He lost the 1998 Triple Crown by a nose at the wire, after an agonizing review of the photo finish. Challenger Victory Gallop reeled in Baffert's Derby and Preakness winner Real Quiet – foot by foot, in deep stretch, to the horror of a packed grandstand anticipating history. That remains the bad beat to end all bad beats.

But it's not his only one. A year earlier, Silver Charm had the Triple in his sights in the Belmont stretch before being overhauled by Touch Gold. Three years after the Real Quiet crusher, Point Given – arguably Baffert's best horse – was upset in the Derby before going on to win the second two legs in authoritative fashion. A year after that, War Emblem went into the Belmont starting gate with a chance at the Crown but stumbled on the way out and was done right away.

And before all of that, there was the '96 Kentucky Derby – Baffert's first moment on the Triple Crown stage. His gritty gelding Cavonnier appeared to have the roses won until Grindstone pulled alongside for a dramatic final few strides to the wire. That photo finish review took an eternity as well before the racing stewards declared Grindstone the winner.

So, yeah, there are several reasons why Baffert said Sunday: "Pete Carroll, I know what he felt." That Seattle Seahawks' interception on the goal line with the Super Bowl within their grasp in February felt familiar to the white-haired trainer.

All signs are perfect right now – which may only add to Baffert's discomfort. It's almost going too well, in a sport where Derby plans are almost always fraught with peril.

"Everyone's on pins and needles," he said. "A lot of anxiety, all this week."

Having won his last four races by more than 22 lengths, American Pharoah blazed through his final pre-Derby workout Sunday, ripping through five furlongs in 58.40 seconds. The performance was the final stamp of approval of the horse as the Derby favorite – and then some. It moved longtime workout clocker Gary Young to make this declaration to the track publicity staff: "I have been doing this for 35 years, and he might be the best horse I've ever seen."

Then undefeated Dortmund showed up on the track Monday after shipping in from California, looking as much like a CGI creation as a real horse. The rippling, statuesque giant stands 17.2 hands tall and weighs 1,360 pounds. The son of 2008 Derby winner Big Brown is out of a towering mare named Our Josephina – a little bit like coupling Rebecca Lobo with Shaq.

"Right now, we just have to contain ourselves, the excitement [of] coming in here with two good horses," Baffert said. "It's going to be a long week. Hopefully, it will go quickly."

The next big moment is the post-position draw Wednesday. In a field of 20 horses, positioning out of the gate doesn't guarantee victory – but it can guarantee defeat. Baffert knows that, too. In 2010, he believed he had a live shot with Lookin At Lucky, only to see the horse doomed by drawing the No. 1 post. After being pinned on the rail in the Derby (winding up sixth), Lookin At Lucky went on to win the Preakness two weeks later.

And even if the draw goes well for American Pharoah and Dortmund, Baffert will hold his breath when he goes to the stalls in the morning Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Things can happen.

Last year Baffert had to scratch Hoppertunity two days before the Derby. And last fall he scratched American Pharoah before the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, despite being the favorite, reportedly due to a foot bruise.

If they make it to the race, the next challenge is a clean trip – in any given year, about one-third of the bloated field is compromised in some way by racing traffic.

Then there is the question of race pace.

Three years ago, front-running Baffert trainee Bodemeister endured withering fractions to open a three-length lead in the stretch. That colt was owned by American Pharoah owner Ahmed Zayat, and it looked like Bodemeister was going to defy all logic and precedent by holding on for the full 1¼ miles and win. But I'll Have Another finally caught and passed Bodemeister, pulling away for a 1½-length victory.

Six years ago, Baffert's Pioneerof The Nile was second to shocking long shot Mine That Bird, who shot through on the rail to score one of the biggest Derby upsets ever. Pioneerof The Nile also was trained by Baffert and owned by Zayat – and happens to be American Pharoah's sire.

That's a lot of recent torment beneath the Twin Spires for Baffert. After winning three Derbys in six years – and nearly four in seven, if not for the Cavonnier bad beat – he probably thought this race belonged to him. But after zero wins since 2002, a man who has accumulated plenty of horse-racing scar tissue assuredly now knows the 140-year-old truth.

Nobody owns the Kentucky Derby. You can only hope to steal a two-minute tryst with it.

Bob Baffert has the horses to do it again. We'll see whether he has the luck. It's a long week in Louisville for the man with the flushest hand in decades.