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What's Not In My Wallet: The case against Cam Newton

Is Cam a buying scam in 2016? (AP)
Is Cam a buying scam in 2016? (AP)

My wallet is like anyone else’s — some cash, some credit cards, some receipts I probably should throw away. Oh, and a whole bunch of football players.

I’ve drafted more than ever in 2016, in anticipation of the fresh fantasy football season. Later this week, I’ll discuss the common-thread players I keep landing, the keys to my year. In today’s blog, the focus will be on the players I haven’t been drafting, the most interesting names who are missing from my rosters.

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Let’s establish some important disclaimers — there will be a bunch of good, coveted players on this list. Many of them will go on to have impactful seasons. I could tell you all the obvious players to avoid that would generate near-universal agreement, but what good is that? Do you really need help avoiding Victor Cruz (I heard that one on the radio, honest) or the 49ers defense?

In many cases, it’s simply a case of not liking the price a player currently demands. We are, after all, trying to leverage a marketplace. There are some other themes that come into play, and I’ve tried to outline them here.

I welcome your lists as well — hit me up on Twitter at @scott_pianowski. Tell me what’s missing from your wallet.

The Price of Career Years: It seems like you can break down most sporting career years into two categories — the validation career year, and the surprise career year. And that designation goes a long way towards determining the way we price the player in the following fantasy season.

When a career year comes as a major surprise — think Doug Baldwin in 2015, or Jose Bautista’s baseball breakout in 2010 — the follow-up price can be a little funky. Some will be especially wary not to pay up for this type of player, concerned about being the sucker. Sometimes it’s almost a payback pan, as if the room is mad that the shocking season happened in the first place.

But when a marquee player posts a career year, when the player going off is someone the public has always believed in — that’s when the follow-up price tends to be exorbitant. Back to baseball — after Bryce Harper had an MVP season in 2015, there was little doubt he’d be a lottery pick in 2016. And that’s also where we’re at with Cam Newton this summer and fall.

If you want Newton on your team, you’re going to have to pay a mint. And given the abundant league-wide depth of the quarterback position, it’s a price I’m not willing to pay.

I see all the positives for Newton, of course. His receiving group welcomes Kelvin Benjamin back. Newton has been the QB3, QB4, QB3, QB17 and QB1 in his five-year career. He’s durable, and a monster runner — especially at the goal. I’d be shocked if he had anything less than a great season.

But in standard fantasy formats, we need just one quarterback each week. Newton’s current Yahoo ADP is 16 slots ahead of Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson. Are you that confident he’s going to beat those guys? Heck, you could wait 26 slots and get Drew Brees, or downshift 34 slots and look at Carson Palmer (and his ridiculous wealth of weapons).

And on and on it goes . . . Eli Manning, Blake Bortles, Philip Rivers, and Tom Brady are all medium-round picks in any format. Kirk Cousins doesn’t cost much. Marcus Mariota is a young QB on the rise (and maybe Jameis Winston is, too; more on him later). Streaming the position is always a consideration, too.

Obviously the public Yahoo ADPs might not apply specifically to your league — you have to season that stuff to taste. But in every room I’ve been in this summer, Newton is the first QB taken, and usually a round or two or three clear of the other big-name QBs. That’s not a bet I’m willing to make. I don’t want to price Newton where he basically has to finish very high on his range of outcomes to justify the pick. The shopping is too appealing at the other tiers.

Le'Veon Bell (AP)
Le'Veon Bell (AP)

Sweet 16: There’s nothing fun about not selecting Le’Veon Bell — at his peak, he’s the clear No. 1 back in football. But he obviously can’t play a full schedule now that his suspension has been solidified, and that takes him out of the running for me as a first or second-round pick. I want anyone I take in those rounds to have the realistic possibility of a full season.

Bell also has an extensive injury history to be concerned about, not to mention a foot in the door of the league’s disciplinary program. I’m definitely afraid a fantasy team spearheaded by Bell could take me down, but I’m still not considering him until Round 3 — and that means I probably won’t get him anywhere in 2016.

Juicy Upside, Not Enough Floor: It breaks my heart to have Jordy Nelson on this list. A few years ago, in fact, he was the coverboy to the Wallet List, the opposite of today’s assignment. When healthy, he’s one of the most exhilarating receivers in football. Aaron Rodgers is obviously an elite quarterback. Nelson’s upside is as high as any receiver — he has a plausible case to finish as the No. 1 wideout.

But where do we draw the floor? Nelson enters his age-31 season off a torn ACL injury, and this summer he’s had problems with his other knee. He didn’t come off the PUP list until Aug. 17.

The second round is filled with a bunch of interchangeable receivers who all have tasty upsides, but most of them also offer more floor than Nelson. That’s the key here. I want both upside and floor with that kind of draft capital. Like the Bell pan, I know not picking Nelson won’t be popular, and it might not be fun. But I’m going to trust my instincts, and I’m going to appeal to common sense.

Fade the Injury Timetable: Every football season I’m surprised at how optimistic fantasy players tend to be when they encounter an injury situation. When a team spits out a 4-to-6 timetable, it’s as if the fantasy crowd assumes the low number and immediately discounts the high number. And that doesn’t even factor in the time to get fresh again, for players to return to their full powers. Not every fantasy commodity is immediately startable upon return.

With that in mind, I don’t have any Tyler Eifert. It’s not that I’m dead set against taking him, I just don’t see the type of markdown that I’m comfortable with.

Eifert is coming off ankle surgery and is hoping to jog at some point this week. The Bengals are hoping to get him back early in the season. “Hope” is the key word in most Eifert updates. Nothing is concrete or guaranteed here.

Eifert’s industry ADP checks in around 67, a lofty number for someone shrouded in question marks. I’ve never come close to selecting him this year. I don’t want to go out of my way looking for roster problems unless I’m compensated significantly for the inconvenience. Roster problems will find you anyway; don’t go out of your way to meet them.

Game Flow Gutshot: No one expects the 49ers to be a good team this year, but they sure should be interesting. Chip Kelly is never boring, even when things crash and burn — like they did at the end of his Philadelphia run.

But will the new-look Niners be a good fit for Carlos Hyde? San Francisco doesn’t have great depth in back of Hyde — he’s being handed the featured job — but how much will he stay on the field if the 49ers lose double-digit games? Can he prove himself as a receiver? Can he find holes behind a poor offensive line? Will he quickly earn the trust of a new coaching staff?

I’d be willing to at least consider Hyde in the fifth round, or the latter stages of the fourth round, but I’m not seeing him fall there often. His current Yahoo ADP is about 37. If I’m going to pony up a foundational draft pick for a running back, he better come with a three-down profile, a winning background, or both.

Jimmy Graham faces the music (AP)
Jimmy Graham faces the music (AP)

Some other players I haven’t been drafting much, if at all:

• Jimmy Graham, TE, Seahawks: Any comeback from a torn patellar tendon should make you skeptical. And then consider how mediocre Graham was last year, and how explosive the Seahawks offense became after his injury. Forget Graham’s 117 ADP on Yahoo — I’ve had chances to draft him considerably later than that and passed every time.

There are few players I am absolute on — normally there is a price for everyone — but I’m going to be the last guy on this bandwagon, if it materializes. If Graham makes a monster comeback, good for him. Hopefully it will at least apply to the Russell Wilson shares I have accumulated.

• Ameer Abdullah, RB, Lions: He’s not the pass-catching back. He’s unlikely to be the goal-line back. What’s left for Abdullah? This also looks like a pass-heavy Lions team, like it’s been for most of the Matthew Stafford era.

• Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs: Like Bell and Nelson, a player I’m nervous to be out on. Nonetheless, Charles had been through multiple ACL surgeries, and I wonder if the team is ready to siphon a fair amount of the goal-line work to someone else, perhaps intriguing Spencer Ware. I’m also going very WR-heavy in the early rounds of my drafts; even if Charles came with no strings attached, there’s a good chance I wouldn’t be taking him. (We’ll discuss the WR-heavy themes more as the preseason finishes up.)

• Dion Lewis, RB, Patriots: We’ve had this discussion all summer on Twitter — with Lewis nowhere near the practice field, how could you reasonably spend a Round 4 or Round 5 pick on him? Now he’s out several weeks, and I’ll let him be someone else’s stash-and-hope. The secretive Patriots don’t make the play any easier.

• Jameis Winston, QB, Buccaneers: Not a chance I’ll chase his rushing touchdowns from last year, most of which came during “hair on fire” garbage-time situations. Winston is not a tremendous rushing threat, or even a savvy runner — if he continues to scramble like he did as a rookie, he’s asking for trouble. Some of Winston’s rushing giveback will probably be offset by increased TD connections between Winston and Mike Evans, but I’m not as sold on Evans’s work ethic and floor as some other pundits seem to be.

• Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos: As bad at his quarterbacks were last year, I give Thomas a fair share of the blame for a disappointing output. And it’s hard to imagine the immediate QB play getting much better. I can get a much safer player in the third round.

• Josh Gordon, WR, Browns: He’s going to miss a bunch of games, he wasn’t anything special the last time we saw him on a football field, and the Browns have a solid stable of pass-catchers, with or without Gordon. There’s zero guarantee Gordon will be a target hog, if and when he returns. His early ADP is far too pricy for my blood; fantasy optimism strikes again.

• Thomas Rawls, RB, Seahawks: I know some wise pundits who are in on Rawls (Mike Salfino and Davis Mattek, to name two), so it’s not like I can be super-confident here. But Rawls is coming off a broken ankle, he’s done very little this summer, and the Seahawks have a bunch of options in the backfield (starting with the believe-it-or-not case of Christine Michael). Seattle also has a poor offensive line, though some of that is mitigated by Russell Wilson’s mobility and magic.

Rawls has been priced as a sure thing in most of my drafts, a third or fourth-round pick thus far. Even as that price starts to slip later into August, I find myself hesitant to point and click.

• Steve Smith, WR, Ravens: I love the motor, I love the heart, I love the competitiveness. But he’s 37 years old and coming off an Achilles injury, and the ADP is not exactly a giveaway. I’m out.

• Julian Edelman, WR, NE: He’s played one full season in seven and he’ll be without Tom Brady for at least four games. The touchdown upside is modest. Edelman has become an accepted name brand, regularly going in the third or fourth round. Too pricy for me.

• Broncos Defense: I’m hesitant to pay up for any designer defense, especially one that comes tied to such an uncertain quarterback situation. Okay, to be fair, Denver didn’t have good QB play last year, either. But I buy into the correlation between the two units, as a general point, and I’m not going to simply hope Denver’s defense will be so awesome again that a mistake-prone offense won’t matter. That’s a tall order, pulling that rabbit out of the hat.

I’m fine to stream defenses, or take them as later values. It’s never going to be a position I’m aggressive with on draft day.

• Handcuffs: There’s a time and a place to start thinking about handcuffing your players, but it’s after the season has some definition. In the summer, I generally view it as a sucker play. Don’t play for one run in the late rounds, shoot for the big inning. Gobble up the other guy’s handcuffs.

• Somewhat obvious fades: Josh Doctson (rookie WR, dinged up), any rookie tight end (the position is too mentally challenging), Dorial Green-Beckham (million-dollar body, discount head), all the Miami backs, Ladarius Green, Matt Jones, Kevin White, Laquon Treadwell, Sammie Coates