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What We Learned: Team North America is future of NHL
(Hello, this is a feature that will run through the entire season and aims to recap the weekend’s events and boils those events down to one admittedly superficial fact or stupid opinion about each team. Feel free to complain about it.)
Hockey is increasingly becoming a young man’s game.
In a lot of ways, this is an issue of economics. Young players tend to be cheaper than older ones, and with more middle-aged players (that is, those in their early- to mid-20s) getting bigger contracts all the time, teams have to make cap-related adjustments.
These adjustments are made at the margins. It’s almost entirely older players getting pushed out of the league in favor of younger, cheaper ones. That makes sense both financially and on the ice. When the 2004-05 lockout happened, the prevailing wisdom was that players peaked in their late 20s or early 30s. Plenty of data since then suggests that a player’s prime is effectively over once he’s ready for unrestricted free agency.
This is very important for teams to consider, simply from a cap management standpoint, but even beyond that it’s vital to team-building. The more guys on the wrong side of 30 you have, the less likely you are to win unless they’re high-level players to begin with. But a 30-year-old who’s average for his age is necessarily going to be a less effective contributor than a relatively skilled player who’s 25.
Nonetheless, this is still a league that values 30-plus players more than it probably should, with nearly 1 in every 4 players (23.3 percent) to get at least one game with an NHL club last season coming from this age group. By comparison, a little fewer than 1 in 3 were under the age of 23, mostly by necessity.
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But what’s interesting here is that 23-and-under players actually led the league in goals per game last season, scoring 0.17 per game. Even players more or less in their primes, aged 24 to 29, fell a little short of that number.
So it should come as no real surprise that the North American entry to the World Cup of Hockey would be so obviously good. They routed Team Europe in both their World Cup exhibition games so far, and it should come as no surprise that Europe — with the ability to add any players they want regardless of age — went older anyway. They are the oldest team in the tournament by a fair shout (30.3 years old). This also, obviously, has something to do with the improvements in development systems in hockey’s superpower nations like Canada, the U.S., Sweden, Finland, and even Russia.
But it also has to do with hockey traditionalism: Given the choice, teams would prefer to take older players. The youngest player on Canada’s roster in Sochi was Matt Duchene, and he was one of only three players who could have qualified for a 23-and-under club. The others were Alex Pietrangelo and John Tavares. Steven Stamkos was named but not healthy enough. However, a number of other very good 23-and-under players should have at least warranted consideration, like Taylor Hall and Tyler Seguin. Maybe you say it doesn’t matter because the Canadians won anyway, but those two players at least would almost certainly have been better additions to the roster than Jeff Carter, Rick Nash, Patrick Sharp, Patrick Marleau or (haha) Chris Kunitz.
Point being: Hockey seems destined to overvalue experience forever, or at least until forced not to by a salary cap.
Back in 2005-06, when the salary cap was put into place, 43 forwards and defensemen aged 36 or more — ancient by hockey standards — played at least one game, but the average number of games they played individually came to a little more than 59. Five years later, that number ticked up to more than 60. Last year, only 32 greybeards got into at least one game, but they averaged 57.5 games. Teams still rely heavily on these players to fill out the lineup cards most nights, even if they’re demonstrably not as effective as their far younger counterparts.
The average number of games played by players under the age of 23 last season was just 35.5, and a big part of that is because of nine-game tryouts early in the year, or late-season call-ups because of injuries or teams burning a year off some guys’ ELCs. In all, 84 of the 284 23-U players in the NHL last year played nine games or fewer, almost 30 percent. That puts the number of NHL regulars in the youngest age group at roughly the same level as those 30-plus, and it doesn’t make a lot of sense.
Sure, a lot players have raw talent at that age, and those who make it to be everyday NHLers before they turn 24 tend to be quite good. Meanwhile, those who stick around past age 30 are a hodgepodge of very good players (think 37-year-old Joe Thornton, who was one of the best centers in the league last year) and those who still linger because their contracts say they have to (like Braydon Coburn, whom Steve Yzerman would fire into the sun if he could dump the salary).
This is not unlike the old adage that small players have to prove they belong, and big ones have to prove they don’t; generally speaking young NHLers have to play themselves onto rosters, while those who have already earned their guaranteed contracts have to completely fall apart to get bought out.
Kevin Clark had an interesting article on the Ringer last week about how the quality of football has gotten worse in the NFL because the league’s team-friendly CBA allows guys to get cut the second they become ineffective with relatively little cap penalty. Were such a change instituted in the NHL — and we’ve gotta be like two lockouts away from that, max — one could reasonably assume that more veterans would get cut to make room for younger, cheaper players. The people who would really benefit, though, are the middle-aged players for whom teams would preoccupy themselves by buying up UFA years. The average AAV for a lot of guys in their mid-20s would go through the roof as teams fought to retain them for their prime years, safe in the knowledge that they could also cut them the second they turned 30.
It’s interesting to think about how many of the North American players would have made their home country’s World Cup rosters. If we’re being honest, I think the U.S. probably takes only Johnny Gaudreau, and possibly Seth Jones and Brandon Saad. Canada might have only taken Connor McDavid, and perhaps Aaron Ekblad.
Does Gaudreau backcheck enough for John Tortorella? Does McDavid have enough experience to earn Mike Babcock’s consideration? We obviously won’t ever know, but we can make educated guesses. I’m leaning toward “no” across the board.
But here’s the thing: Hockey is moving more and more to a speed and possession game. The one thing you’d have to say about the North American exhibitions is that they put on almost pornographic displays of both. In this way, the sport is improved by getting younger, because the sport has developed a generation of talent that deals primarily in these two components. There’s really not one player on the North America roster whose primary attribute is “sandpaper,” and you can’t say the same for even the Canadian roster now.
NHL teams will only continue to grow more reliant on players on their first and second contracts. More general managers will, through previous mistakes and current roster needs, come to understand the importance of not paying guys too much or too long after their 30th birthdays.
As the NFL shows, the trend toward “young and cheap” can reach a breaking point where the quality of the product falls off. But for now, hockey could use a little more youth to gain a lot more speed. And hell, if you’re pushing 10- to 15-year veterans whose most valuable skill is defensive awareness out of the game, maybe we start to see more of those lost goals per game everyone has been complaining about since the late ’90s.
Seems like a good idea, but NHL teams would have to actually follow through on revolutionary thinking. We all know how that tends to go.
What We Learned
Anaheim Ducks: Still nothing between the Ducks and either Rickard Rakell or Hampus Lindholm. Really getting down to the wire.
Arizona Coyotes: Hmm, sounds like someone has been doing some homework this summer.
Boston Bruins: John-Michael Liles explaining what’s changed in the free agency process over the past few years is worth your time.
Buffalo Sabres: The Evander Kane case is still happening. Fun.
Calgary Flames: The Flames want Johnny Gaudreau to take $6.5 million long-term. Player wants $8 million. Usually I would say “Split the difference,” but Gaudreau’s worth it.
Chicago: The World Cup sure has been fun so far, and the games that… matter(?) haven’t even started yet.
Colorado Avalanche: They asked Joe Sakic what the Avs need to improve on this season, and he said… “finishing games?” Joe, you were doing so well!
Columbus Blue Jackets: John Tortorella calling out Max Pacioretty when his team was outshot 81-48 in two games reads like a bad John Tortorella parody account. But like the best stories, you can’t make this stuff up.
Dallas Stars: Interesting read on how the Stars are making it work despite being in a dreaded non-traditional market. Big important tip: Winning hockey.
Detroit Red Wings: Chris Osgood thinks Steve Ott is an intriguing player because he’s a leader. Great stuff. Love it.
Edmonton Oilers: Why does everyone in Edmonton think it would somehow be bad if Nail Yakupov starts producing alongside Connor McDavid? Wouldn’t it be good? Wouldn’t it be preferable to him not-producing?
Florida Panthers: The Panthers sure are giving a lot of money and term to their young players. Whether it works remains to be seen, but as with all Panthers-related things, they’re headed in the right direction these days.
Las Vegas No-Names: “Knights” will be in the name. Some other word will go in front of it. Meh.
Los Angeles Kings: Drew Doughty just bought a $6 million “compound.” Only interest, fractions, fractures, and cults have compounds, Drew.
Minnesota Wild: Six guys from the Wild are in the World Cup. Wouldn’t have guessed that many, but three of them are Finnish and Finland isn’t exactly deep so it makes sense.
Montreal Canadiens: Oh my god don’t tell Michel Therrien this!
Nashville Predators: You know you’re old when Paul Gaustad retires at 34 and your first reaction, “No way Paul Gaustad was 34.”
New Jersey Devils: When your offense is relying on a guy coming off everything Mike Cammalleri has been through, that’s… dicey.
New York Islanders: John Tavares, good player.
New York Rangers: Get used to this kind of workload, Henrik.
Ottawa Senators: Whoa whoa whoa, who is arguing that Daniel Alfredsson is somehow not a legend?
Philadelphia Flyers: Great question for every team in the league!
Pittsburgh Penguins: Here’s hoping Olli Maatta can have a good and healthy season.
San Jose Sharks: The Sharks are getting their own beer. It’ll be a stout until the playoffs, then it’s a sour.
St. Louis Blues: This Tarasenko fella is pretty good, it turns out.
Tampa Bay Lightning: Sad that “all this team’s games will be on TV” is still worth a news article in 2016.
Toronto Maple Leafs: Hmm I think the answer to this question is, “Yes.”
Vancouver Canucks: Ben Hutton thinks Troy Stecher is the next Ben Hutton. Honestly, he might be right. Stecher was a hell of a college player.
Washington Capitals: People still consider Russia a high-level hockey power? They’re pretty clearly a B team at this point.
Winnipeg Jets: “If anyone knows how to beat Pavelec, you’d have to figure it would be Maurice.” Yeah the trick to beating Ondrej Pavelec is to shoot the puck at him.
Play of the Weekend
The stretch pass here is incredible, but the work Seguin does to shake off TJ Oshie and make this pass is amazing here.
Gold Star Award
Brad Marchand had more goals last season than anyone on Team Canada. He is my heart!!!
Minus of the Weekend
Lots of minor injuries through three days of exhibition World Cup games. Weird. Unforeseeable.
Perfect HFBoards Trade Proposal of the Year
User “Tbj4life” knows the way to get everyone’s approval is with a three-way trade proposal.
To Philly: Gaudreau + Shinkaruk
To Buff: Gostisbehere
To Cgy: Reinhart + Schenn
Signoff
No pizza, only khlav kalash.
Ryan Lambert is a Puck Daddy columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here.
(All stats via Corsica unless otherwise noted.)
