Advertisement

What We Learned: Is Connor McDavid going to win the Pacific or what?

Getty Images
Getty Images

(Hello, this is a feature that will run through the entire season and aims to recap the weekend’s events and boils those events down to one admittedly superficial fact or stupid opinion about each team. Feel free to complain about it.)

While everyone likely thought a worst-case scenario for Edmonton was “Connor McDavid only turns into the second-best player alive” this year, there couldn’t have been too many who had them pegged as the top team in their division by mid-November.

[ Join a Yahoo Daily Fantasy Hockey contest now]

And yet here we are, with the Oilers seemingly in the driver’s seat ahead of San Jose (no shocker they’re near the top of the division) and Anaheim (another minor surprise) and. Los Angeles being off to another slow start — below .500 — doesn’t help the predictors either.

The Oilers lost on Friday night, despite putting 42 shots on net. McDavid had another point. They lost again on Sunday to the New York Rangers. McDavid had another point.

Nonetheless, they continue to sit atop what was supposed to be a much tougher Pacific.

This is defying the odds a little bit, no doubt. While Edmonton has at times played very well, and at times looked a lot more like the Oilers of old, one cannot imagine there were too many people who said, “Yeah, the Oilers look like a top-eight team to me.” And yet here they are, for now. The numbers certainly don’t suggest they are of quite this quality, but for the first time in a long time, the Oilers might actually be turning a corner and becoming good. Or so it would appear, anyhow.

They’re getting excellent goaltending right now from Cam Talbot (.920) behind an improved defense and that strong forward group. Moreover, through McDavid, the Oilers are scoring more than the league average in goals per game. That hasn’t happened since the 2005-06. Their power play is okay. Their PK has been lights-out. Not sure either one lasts, though; they don’t have the personnel to keep up a top-five kill all season, and one suspects that the power play can get better given who they have on hand.

But the question people should have about the Oilers as “legit team” is two-fold: Is this newfound success all because of Connor McDavid, and does that matter? (These numbers don’t include last night’s game against the Rangers.)

NHL
NHL

All those numbers for the Oilers make plenty of sense. When Connor McDavid is on the ice, they are world-beaters. When he’s off, they’re merely okay. And looking at it, you probably say all these stats fall in the “that’s about right” category.

Okay, maybe not McDavid’s 70-plus percent goals margin, but he’s of such a high quality individually that the scoring chance number makes sense; his speed alone generates offense at an alarming clip, and his skill allows him to bury those chances. So if we’re saying his goals-for percentage is unsustainably high, one does have to wonder how much of a correction is coming his way. It probably isn’t all that much just given what he brings to the table.

Other than that, you have to say the Oilers are a mediocre team, which is both fair and self-evident. For all the mistakes he’s made in building this roster, you can’t say they haven’t made improvements under Peter Chiarelli, and if that results in them being a roughly average team with a celestial talent at the top of it, then they’re going to be a decent team (or better) for years to come.

It should come as no surprise at all that when it comes to generating goals at 5-on-5, Connor McDavid is among the very best in the league over the past two seasons, even despite his age and his injuries and the relative lack of help. The guys ahead of him include Jaromir Jagr, or Evgeny Kuznetsov or Mark Scheifele. Joe Thornton is one spot behind him. That tells you something; McDavid can create elite offense with less help than some of the best offense-creators in the league.

In terms of producing individual points per 60, McDavid is No. 1 as well, ahead of Scheifele (man, I guess we don’t talk enough about how good Scheifele is), Patrick Kane, and Sidney Crosby. One imagines that continues apace, and keeps that goals-for number up as well.

Honestly, the rest of the time when McDavid isn’t on the ice — approximately two-thirds of any given game — almost doesn’t matter as long as the Oilers can be even passably good. If they’re average, the huge top-line punch he provides means they’re still going to win more games than they lose. And that’s pretty remarkable. Even when Crosby first came into the league, I would argue he had more help around him (due in large part to the mere presence of Evgeni Malkin, who happens to be a top-three center in the league as well over the last decade).

McDavid doesn’t have the luxury. Jordan Eberle? Milan Lucic? Ryan Nugent-Hopkins? Leon Draisaitl? These are all good players and difference-makers, for sure, but no one would confuse them with absolute elites. Maybe you say they make it up by volume — a quantity over quality type of thing — but more likely you say, “This is the kind of difference McDavid makes alone.”

We really don’t have a basis for comparison. The underlying stats we use to determine whether a player is truly making a difference or if it’s just noise and good luck didn’t exist when Crosby came into the league. Not until 2007-08, when Crosby was entering his third season and already had 222 points on his resume (good lord!) did the league start publishing shot-attempt stats. And even then, it’s one of those things that’s tough to judge because Crosby only played 53 games that season behind a wonky ankle Nonetheless, one imagines Crosby’s impact on the Penguins in those first two seasons was at least in the same ballpark as what McDavid did both this year and last.

So to circle back to the two-fold question about the Oilers’ success, no this isn’t “all” Connor McDavid. But as you might imagine it’s a healthy portion. The Oilers have 44 goals in all situations so far this season, and McDavid has been on the ice for exactly half of them, despite playing only about 32 percent of the ice time. That’s his impact, and it’s tough to see that changing.

And no, it also doesn’t really matter that McDavid is doing so much of the driving here. You expect him to do that. While you’d also perhaps like to see a little more from his teammates in the scoring department — McDavid has 18 points in 15 games, and no one else on the team has more than 12 — as long as they’re just keeping up with the competition (which they are) then it really isn’t a big deal.

McDavid isn’t the best player in the world, because Sidney Crosby continues to be remarkable. But he’s close. And he’s closing fast. And this is the kind of difference-maker an all-time talent provides.

What We Learned

Anaheim Ducks: Yeah it’s tough when you make Pekka Rinne look like Carey Price. Just not ideal.

Arizona Coyotes: Yeah, a new arena will turn this thing around!

Boston Bruins: David Pastrnak is up to 10 goals in 13 games. Playing with Bergeron and Marchand has its benefits, folks.

Buffalo Sabres: The injuries to this team have certainly been horrific but how do we feel about this team not even looking remotely competitive? Like, yeah the team should be better, but at the same time, every time I’ve seen them they’ve looked awful.

Calgary Flames: Speaking of terrible, they’re gonna blame Hamilton for all the horrible play.

Carolina Hurricanes: This was a good win for a team that needed a good win. Hopefully they can turn things around.

Chicago: On Friday night, Brian Campbell scored on the power play. It was the first time he had done that in two years, which seems impossible.

Colorado Avalanche: Yeah this is very bad.

Columbus Blue Jackets: Ooooooof.

Dallas Stars: Yeah, playing the Canucks is usually good for what ails ya.

Detroit Red Wings: The Red Wings would love to see Anthony Mantha score more goals because that increases the chances he’ll be the player claimed in the expansion draft. He is a lose-able asset.

Edmonton Oilers: Yeah you know what happened in that game where the Oilers put 42 shots on net? They were, uh, bad I guess.

Florida Panthers: Another Moneyball-type pickup by the Panthers, because Griffith has huge AHL numbers (158 points in 165 games). Why not give him a legit chance to prove himself in the NHL too, like, say, Jonathan Marchessault?

Los Angeles Kings: Let’s not paint this as a wakeup call. Dustin Brown still isn’t good. This, too, is just fuel for hoping things go well in the expansion draft.

Las Vegas No-Names: Yo, Ilya Kovalchuk in Vegas would be awesome. Let’s go.

Minnesota Wild: Well, it happens.

Montreal Canadiens: Oh, uh, another Carey Price shutout. Hmm yeah that checks out.

Nashville Predators: Speaking of, 41 feels like a lot of career shutouts, but then you gotta realize Martin Brodeur retired with 125. Carey Price has 38 shutouts and he’s five years younger.

New Jersey Devils: So that’s four wins in a row. I really don’t know what to feel about this team at all.

New York Islanders: Frankly not a great way to lose a game.

New York Rangers: This game was uncomfortable to watch. The Flames are really bad, and the Rangers are really good.

Ottawa Senators: It’s almost like giving this guy a lot of money and term based on one 30-game run was ill-advised.

Philadelphia Flyers: Might Steve Mason be turning a corner after his horrible start?

Pittsburgh Penguins: This team is just really good. No other way to say it.

San Jose Sharks: The Sharks have one regulation loss in eight road games so far this year. Honestly I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Sharks/Penguins were the Cup Final again.

St. Louis Blues: What in the world?

Tampa Bay Lightning: The Bolts are trying to get more people to come to the games via a ferry.

Toronto Maple Leafs: Oh it’s gonna be a long season.

Vancouver Canucks: Yeah, it’s getting this bad.

Washington Capitals: The Caps are 1-2-1 against division opponents. They’re 8-1-0 against everyone else. Hockey’s fun.

Winnipeg Jets:Everything’s Jake?” Who wrote this? Elmore Leonard?

Play of the Weekend

Sure, it’s against Deryk Engelland and Bret Kulak, but look at this little burst of speed from Chris Kreider after Stepan just puts it to an area to set himself up for a goal. Look how much space he makes up in a stride.

Gold Star Award

Getty Images
Getty Images

Shoutout to Sebastian Aho for scoring the first two goals of his career against a really good team. What a nice little boy.

Minus of the Weekend

NHL
NHL

I really can’t believe how bad the Pacific Division is from top to bottom. They’re starting to look like the division that finally has a third-seed that keeps a better team from another division out of the playoffs.

Perfect HFBoards Trade Proposal of the Week

User “Bovinder Horvatji” is getting weird.

Canucks 2017 1st (1st or 2nd overall) for Pierre Luc Dubois

Signoff

I’ve grown that extra inch you wanted, plus several feet more.

Ryan Lambert is a Puck Daddy columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here.

MORE FROM YAHOO SPORTS