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West Coast Bias: Why projected lottery pick Ivan Rabb returned to Cal
As Ivan Rabb pondered whether to return to Cal or remain in the NBA draft last spring, his high school coach suggested he approach the decision from a vantage point few prospects bother to consider.
Bishop O’Dowd coach Lou Richie sketched out the most bleak outcome Rabb could realistically expect from either choice and asked his former star player to think about which was more palatable to him.
To Richie, Rabb’s biggest risk if he entered the draft was languishing on the bench as a rookie for a franchise with minimal available frontcourt playing time. How would the 19-year-old handle the loneliness of a week-long road trip in which he scarcely played and had to stay back at the hotel on off nights while his older teammates went to a nightclub without him?
Of course spending a second year in college would hardly have guaranteed Rabb a smoother ride. If the 6-foot-11 forward failed to cement his lottery pick status and his stock nosedived, he would surely endure relentless heckling from opposing student sections eager to taunt him about the millions of dollars in NBA salary he passed up.
“I told Ivan to look at the worst-case scenarios,” Richie said. “Which one are you more willing to live with? Which one are you able to handle? That should dictate what you do more than the best-case scenarios.”
Richie’s message resonated with Rabb on the heels of a freshman season in which the heralded big man displayed sporadic flashes of immense talent yet seldom dominated. Feedback from NBA personnel suggested Rabb’s longterm potential was too tantalizing for him to fall out of the lottery if he stayed in the draft, yet he recognized being selected in the top 14 did not make him prepared to contribute right away.
For that reason, Rabb withdrew from the draft and became the most highly touted prospect to return to college last spring. When pressed to explain his decision to postpone his NBA payday, Rabb explained he did not want to turn pro until he was certain that he was physically and emotionally ready to be an immediate difference maker.
“I felt in my heart the whole time that I wanted to stay, but people were telling me it didn’t make sense or what if I get hurt,” Rabb said. “That bothered me and made me go back and forth, but I’ve always felt that if I didn’t believe I was ready to go, then that’s all that mattered. I think it’s when I finally stuck to my gut feeling and tuned everyone else out that I was able to make a decision.”
Rabb’s return is a welcome boost for a Cal program that otherwise would have been facing a rebuilding season without him. The Bears lost their three top perimeter players from last year’s NCAA tournament team as point guard Tyrone Wallace graduated, wing Jaylen Brown entered the NBA draft and sharpshooter Jordan Mathews transferred to Gonzaga.
Cal can still be an NCAA tournament team this season if Rabb can evolve from a complementary weapon into the centerpiece of the Bears’ attack. Whereas last year he averaged 12.8 points, 8.6 rebounds and 1.2 blocks on a perimeter-oriented team, Cal’s priority this season will be to get its preseason All-American big man as many touches and scoring opportunities as possible.
“He’s definitely going to be the focal point in our offense and defense, and that’s what he came back to school to be,” Cal assistant coach Wyking Jones said. “He has to be vocal, he has to be our hardest worker and he has to hold guys accountable for working hard as well.”
What Rabb did this offseason to prepare himself for his new role was to make an effort to diversify his offensive game while also adding muscle to his long, lean frame.
Rabb did the same drills during workouts as senior guard Jabari Bird this summer in hopes of extending his outside shooting range and becoming more comfortable handling the ball and getting to the rim off the bounce. He also impressed the Cal coaching staff by requesting nothing but one-on-one sessions with strength and conditioning coach Nicodemus Christopher instead of merely joining group workouts with the rest of his teammates.
“Trust me, that’s not easy,” Jones said. “I’ve done a handful of one-on-one workouts with Nic, and it’s a beast. There are no breaks. You can’t hide. You’ve really got to get after it if you request that, and I really saw him do that. I saw the sweat. I saw the strain in his face.”
If Rabb can parlay all that summer sweat and strain into an All-American caliber sophomore season, Cal has a chance to match or even exceed its achievements from last season when it went 23-11 and finished tied for third in the Pac-12. The Bears will also hope that senior Sam Singer and freshman Charlie Moore combine to solidify the point guard position, that Bird blossoms into the all-league player he was once expected to be out of high school and that Columbia grad transfer Grant Mullins can make a smooth transition from the Ivy League to facing high-major competition.
In the weeks leading up to last May’s deadline for early-entry prospects to withdraw from the draft, many considered it a foregone conclusion Rabb would turn pro. It’s rare for potential lottery picks to return to college, especially considering that the 2016 draft was likely to be weaker than next year’s will be.
That Rabb bucked conventional wisdom did not catch his family members or closest friends by surprise though. They’ve seen the former McDonald’s All-American do it once before when he chose hometown Cal instead of Pac-12 powers Arizona and UCLA or national juggernauts Kentucky or Kansas.
“Ivan doesn’t like to be put in a box,” Richie said. “The more people that said, “You’ve got to come out. You can’t leave money on the table,” the more resolute he became. If you want Ivan to come out, those weren’t the words to tell Ivan. Ivan really prides himself on making decisions himself.”
Ask Rabb what he feels he needs to accomplish this season in order to validate his decision to return to Cal, and his answer may surprise you. He’s eager to return to the NCAA tournament and to further elevate his draft stock, yet that’s not how he’ll measure success this season.
“I just want to learn something new,” Rabb said. “Basketball is all about experience and knowing how to play. If your IQ is steadily increasing, that can only make you a better player.”
And when the time comes, more prepared to avoid Richie’s worst-case scenario and make an immediate impact in the NBA.
BEST IN THE WEST RANKINGS (PRESEASON EDITION):
1. Oregon: Should be even better than last year’s 31-win Elite Eight team if Dillon Brooks gets healthy.
2. Gonzaga: Very talented, but may not hit their stride until all the newcomers get used to each other.
3. UCLA: Playmaker extraordinaire Lonzo Ball will make the Bruins more successful and entertaining
4. Arizona: Ray Smith’s ACL tear, Allonzo Trier’s eligibility concerns have cast a pall over the Wildcats.
5. Saint Mary’s: An NCAA bid is the goal with every key player back from last year’s 29-win NIT team.
6. San Diego State: This is the most offensive talent the defensive-oriented Aztecs have had in years.
7. Colorado: Enough talent, experience to overcome the graduation of all-league center Josh Scott.
8. Cal: Sophomore forward Ivan Rabb might have been a lottery pick had he turned pro last spring.
9. Utah: Kyle Kuzma must carry Utah until transfers David Collette, Sedrick Barefield become eligible.
10. BYU: Ex-Lone Peak High teammates Nick Emery, Erik Mika and T.J. Haws will fuel a potent attack.
FIVE QUESTIONS WITH BYU COACH DAVE ROSE
For the past five years, BYU basketball seasons have followed a familiar pattern.
The Cougars score a lot of points, surrender a lot of points and win just enough games to spend March sweating out whether they’ll land one of the final bids to the NCAA tournament or settle for the NIT.
BYU coach Dave Rose hopes the young nucleus he has in place will one day elevate the program to its former heights before they leave Provo. Rose spoke to Yahoo Sports recently about the challenge of replacing do-it-all star Kyle Collinsworth, the uniqueness of having four players from the same high school and the desire to win BYU’s first WCC title.
1. This BYU team isn’t young from an age standpoint, but you’re relying on a lot of freshmen and sophomores. Do you feel you’re a year away from being special or can this group contend for an NCAA tournament right away?
DR: “I hope we’re not rebuilding. I hope we’re in a situation where these guys can step in and keep things going. Then as we get more experience, I think we can become a deeper team and a team with legitimate chance to accomplish some goals we have not met the past few years. I’m cautiously optimistic about this group. I love their work ethic. I love their approach. I love their talent level.”
2. You have four players on this team — Nick Emery, Eric Mika, T.J. Haws and Zach Frampton — who won a lot of championships together at Lone Peak High School. How big a positive is their chemistry for you guys?
DR: “Our exhibition game against Seattle Pacific the other night was the first time we really saw the three of them playing together in a live situation. There’s a lot that they understand about each other, which is good.
“So no question it’s a real positive. You’re taking a group of high-level top-tier guys, and all the hard parts of putting them together on a team they’ve already worked out. There’s camaraderie, chemistry and a real spirit of let’s get this done again like we did in high school. Hopefully that transcends through our team a little bit.”
3. Where do you think you’ll miss Kyle Collinsworth most? His scoring? Defensive versatility? Rebounding?
DR: “When you take the makeup of our team right now, I think what we’ll really miss the most is his rebounding. He had all those triple-doubles, but he was a double-figure rebounding guy almost every night and most of those were big defensive rebounds. He was a 6-7 guard, he was a quick jumper and he was really athletic. It’s going to be a real challenge for us to replace his contributions on the boards.”
4. You guys have a reputation as a far better offensive team than defensive team. I know some of that is the speed at which you play, but does the defense have to improve?
DR: “There’s no question that the emphasis for us in recruiting is trying to find really good offensive players and getting them together to jell. There’s a lot of times we’re not the biggest, not the fastest, not the strongest, but we put together a scheme that can help us compete and win games. This group is a little deeper and I hope it’s more physical. But we still have our challenges defensively. I think these guys are committed to the defensive end of the floor, but actually guarding the ball one on one is a challenge for our team. We’re a team that has to help quite a bit.”
5. You guys have not won a WCC title since joining the league. How big of a goal is that for this group to change that?
DR: “We talk about it. It’s what the guys want. It’s what we want. It’s our expectation. In a five-year period in the Mountain West, we won the league four times. And in a five-year period here, we’ve won the league zero times. A couple of the guys on this team are younger brothers of guys who won those league championships. So there’s an expectation here, but it’s going to be a real challenge. Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga are both in the Top 25 and have some of their best teams that they’ve had.”
THE COUNTDOWN: MOST INTRIGUING WEEK 1 MATCHUPS
5. HARVARD vs. STANFORD, Nov. 11 (Shanghai)
Last year’s records: Harvard 14-16, 6-8 Ivy League (Did not qualify for the postseason); Stanford 15-15, 8-10 Pac-12 (Did not qualify for the postseason)
Key players: Siyani Chambers, Harvard; Reid Travis, Stanford
One big question: Has Stanford’s guard play improved?
This matchup between academic rivals could be more compelling than both their pedestrian 2015-16 records suggest. Stanford returns four starters and welcomes new coach Jerod Haase, who will hope to have more success getting the Cardinal to play to its potential than his predecessor Johnny Dawkins. Harvard adds a Top 25 recruiting class and regains standout point guard Siyani Chambers, who missed all of last season with an ACL tear. While Stanford’s frontcourt is versatile and talented, what will determine how much the Cardinal improve this season is whether their guard play improves. Point guard play was a season-long weakness for Stanford last year, but Haase hopes the return of sophomore Robert Cartwright from injury will solidify the position. The Cardinal also must improve their anemic 31.8 percent 3-point shooting, which means they need Marcus Allen, Dorian Pickens and Marcus Sheffield to shoot more consistently.
Projected winner: Harvard
4. NEVADA at SAINT MARY’S, Nov. 11
Last year’s records: Nevada 24-14, 10-8 Mountain West (Defeated Morehead State to win the CBI title); Saint Mary’s 29-6, 15-3 WCC (Lost to Valparaiso in the NIT quarterfinals)
Key players: Cameron Oliver, Nevada; Emmett Naar, Saint Mary’s
One big question: Can Nevada disrupt the ultra-efficient Saint Mary’s offense?
One year after missing the NCAA tournament despite 27 wins, a regular season sweep of Gonzaga and a co-WCC title, Saint Mary’s knows what’s at stake in November and December. The Gaels have to prove they’re NCAA tournament-caliber against non-league competition in case the selection committee undervalues the WCC again. The first chance for a statement win for Saint Mary’s arrives Friday against a Nevada program on the rise under Eric Musselman. The Wolf Pack could emerge as the top challenger to San Diego State in the Mountain West if Cameron Oliver blossoms into a 20-point, 10-rebound threat and newcomers Marcus Marshall, Devearl Ramsey, Jordan Caroline and Leland King bolster the supporting cast. The key to Friday’s game could be whether Nevada can speed up the tempo and disrupt Saint Mary’s methodical but ultra-efficient attack. The Wolf Pack were among the Mountain West’s top defensive teams last season, but the Gaels return every rotation player from a team that shot 41 percent behind the arc and 56.4 percent inside it, both top 10 nationally.
Projected winner: Saint Mary’s
3. OREGON at BAYLOR, Nov. 14
Last year’s records: Oregon 31-7, 14-4 Pac-12 (Lost to Oklahoma in the NCAA tournament’s West Regional final); Baylor 22-12, 10-8 Big 12 (Lost to Yale in the opening round of the NCAA tournament)
Key players: Tyler Dorsey, Oregon; Johnathan Motley, Baylor
One big question: How will Oregon fare without Dillon Brooks?
The most closely guarded secret in the state of Oregon continues to be when Dillon Brooks will be back from the foot surgery he underwent in July. Dana Altman continues to caution that Brooks will not be ready for the start of the season and insist that there is no timetable for the newly minted preseason All-American’s return. In Brooks’ absence, Oregon’s offense will suffer far more than its defense. The versatile 6-7 combo forward can create shots in a variety of ways, from driving by opposing big men, to knocking down spot-up jumpers, to even taking smaller defenders into the low post. Without Brooks, Oregon will need other shot creators to emerge against a Baylor team that lost three starters to graduation yet should still contend for an NCAA bid behind Johnathan Motley and Miami transfer Manu Lecomte. Sophomore Tyler Dorsey, last year’s third leading scorer, is the most obvious choice, however, Dylan Ennis and high-scoring freshman point guard Payton Pritchard are also capable.
Projected winner: Oregon
2. SAN DIEGO STATE at GONZAGA, Nov. 14
Last year’s records: San Diego State 28-10, 16-2 Mountain West (Lost to George Washington in the NIT semifinals); Gonzaga 28-8, 15-3 WCC (Lost to Syracuse in the round of 16 of the NCAA tournament)
Key players: Trey Kell, San Diego State; Nigel Williams-Goss, Gonzaga
One big question: Has Gonzaga’s newcomer-laden roster meshed yet?
While Gonzaga should live up to its top 20 preseason ranking by conference play, it remains to be seen how good the Zags will be in November. They added nine newcomers to the roster this offseason including a handful of transfers or heralded freshman who should start or see significant playing time right away. To accelerate the bonding and chemistry-building process, Gonzaga went on a team-wide retreat last month to the Idaho wilderness, where they camped in tents and participated activities designed to build trust. The first big test of how quickly the Zags have meshed will come against a San Diego State team favored to repeat as Mountain West champs. The Aztecs have recently won with suffocating defense and just enough offense, but their formula could change a bit this season. Although Skylar Spencer’s rim protection, rebounding and defensive rotation could be difficult to replace, San Diego State brings back five of its six leading scorers, regains top shooter Matt Shrigley and adds offensive-minded transfers Teki Gill-Caesar (Missouri) and Max Hoetzel (Indiana).
Predicted winner: Gonzaga
1. MICHIGAN STATE vs. ARIZONA, Nov. 11 (Honolulu)
Last year’s records: Michigan State 29-6, 13-5 Big Ten (Lost to Middle Tennessee in the opening round of the NCAA tournament); Arizona 25-9, 12-6 Pac-12 (Lost to Wichita State in the opening round of the NCAA tournament)
Key players: Lauri Markkanen, Arizona; Miles Bridges, Michigan State
One big question: Can Arizona exploit its frontcourt size advantage?
With Matt Costello, Ben Carter and Gavin Schilling all injured, Michigan State has a dearth of healthy big men available for this game. The Spartans will likely start prized 6-foot-7 combo forward Miles Bridges at power forward and 6-foot-6 former walk-on Kenny Goins at center. What this means is that this game will feature some major mismatches as Arizona will likely start a pair of 7-footers in the frontcourt. Goins will have a very difficult time guarding Dusan Ristic on the low block, but skilled freshman Lauri Markkanen won’t have it any easier trying to stay in front of Bridges off the dribble at the other end. For Arizona, scoring points in the paint will be critical because the Wildcats may be outmanned on the perimeter with leading returning scorer Allonzo Trier not in uniform because of unspecified eligibility issues. Without Trier, Arizona will turn to freshmen Rawle Alkins and Kobi Simmons to provide backcourt scoring.
Predicted winner: Michigan State
LAST CALL
Two of my good friends are visiting from Massachusetts this week, and they’re not arriving empty-handed. They’ve promised to bring me a bottle of Heady Topper, a Double IPA from Vermont’s The Alchemist that is among America’s most coveted beers. To repay their generosity, I’m surprising them with this week’s recommendation — an IPA I consider to be among California’s best. Amalgamator IPA, by Long Beach-based Beachwood Brewing, is a bright, hoppy beer bursting with dank resin and tropical and citrus flavors. There aren’t many beers I’d give up a bottle of Amalgamator to try, so hopefully the Heady Topper lives up to its hype and this is the rare trade that leaves everyone smiling. (GRADE: 9.5/10)
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Jeff Eisenberg is the editor of The Dagger on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at daggerblog@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
