Week 7 Fantasy Over/Under: Is a Booker breakout on the horizon?

Fantasy is a speculative game. Predict the future, and you look like a genius. Don’t, and you’re painfully human. Gazing into the crystal ball, here’s our view on six intriguing over/unders for Week 7.

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Donning the DFS cap, what commodity is terribly UNDERVALUED in Week 7?

Scott – Take all the rules about first-year tight ends and throw them in the garbage. At least, the rules sure don’t apply to HUNTER HENRY ($17). Not only is he the featured pass-catching tight end in the San Diego offense these days, he’s the featured target, period (18-293-3 over the last month). And this week Henry gets to do his thing against an Atlanta defense that’s struggling to guard the seam (only three teams are worse in tight-end coverage). Keep rocking, rookie.

Liz – MIKE DAVIS ($10). Carlos Hyde is out for Week 7 due to a shoulder injury. Davis and committee-mate Shaun Draughn are expected to rotate in Hyde’s stead. It was Davis, however, who picked up the slack after Hyde exited Week 6. Out snapping Draughn by a margin of 31 percent, Davis managed five totes and received three looks in the passing game (Draughn had just one carry and one target). In an offense that’s racked up the second most rushing attempts in the league, Davis figures to be leaned upon. His matchup vs. the Bucs is additionally favorable, as Tampa Bay has allowed the eighth most fantasy points to opposing running backs.

Brad – C.J. FIEDOROWICZ ($10). Sublime value given recent increase in opportunities. Found the end zone in two of last three games and caught at least four balls in each of those contests. With ‘No Fly Zone’ locked down on DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, could notch similar production as Hunter Henry Week 6 versus the Broncos. At a TE minimum $10, he should cross the double-digit point threshold.

Conversely, what DFS option is the most OVERVALUED in Week 7?

Liz – LESEAN MCCOY ($40). Had him ranked as my No. 2 RB heading into last week, but there’s no way Rex rolls him out in Week 7. Even if Shady proves healthy enough to suit up, he figures to receive a limited number of touches. With archrival New England next up on the schedule, Buffalo wants to keep their biggest offensive weapon healthy. Plus, Mike Gillislee ($10) has performed well and scored in back-to-back contests. That’s the play.

Brad – ANTONIO BROWN ($37). Landry Jones is an unexciting backup who’s proven little when thrust into the lead role. Brown tallied a despicable 17-235-0 line over four games without Big Ben last year and has NEVER caught a TD from anyone else other than No. 7. Sorry, no pelvic thrusts in the end zone this week. Bill Belichick and Jones hold the All-Pro in check.

Andy – No question, ANTONIO BROWN is the proper answer here, for reasons detailed above. But there’s no need for me to pile on Pittsburgh’s Ben-less passing game. Instead, I’ll point out the crazy-high price on DEREK CARR ($39), facing a Jacksonville defense that allows only 6.2 yards per attempt. I’ve got no beef with Carr as a rest-of-season fantasy asset, but no way should he be priced at the same level as Matt Ryan, or within $3 of Tom Brady.

DUMPSTER DIVING. With shovel in hand, what player under 25-percent started should fantasy owners insert into their lineups?

Brad – DEVONTAE BOOKER. Gary Kubiak openly expressed his desire to get Booker move involved in the offense, of course, at C.J. Anderson’s expense. The rookie has flashed when gifted chances 5.4 yards per touch and the eighth-best juke rate among RBs. If CJA flounders and Booker exhibits a hot hand, he could amass 60-80 total yards and a TD versus a Houston front allowing nearly 100 rushing yards per game to RBs.

Andy – KIRK COUSINS is only 20 percent started as of this writing, but he’s facing a Detroit defense that was recently torched by Case Keenum. Seriously: Keenum. The Lions have allowed a league-worst 17 touchdown passes. It won’t surprise me a bit if Cousins gives us 300-plus yards and multiple TDs.

Brandon – HUNTER HENRY. I made the mistake of benching him last week on a couple of my squads in favor of Julius Thomas, and it cost me. I’m not planning on making that same mistake this week against as he faces an Atlanta defense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to TE position. Henry currently sits at No. 3 overall among tight ends in fantasy points, and he’s also No. 3 overall for the past two weeks, with Antonio Gates back in the lineup. Don’t fear Gates’ presence, start Philip Rivers’ new favorite target with confidence.

Philip Rivers, a perennial Rodney Dangerfield All-Star, 22.9 fantasy points in a possible shootout in Atlanta.

Andy – Good number. In fact, this is quite possibly the toughest over/under I can recall. I’m gonna go OVER, because Atlanta’s pass defense has been relatively user-friendly, giving up 14 TDs and 285 yards per game. I’m guessing San Diego can get to 24-27 points in this matchup, with nearly all the stats belonging to Rivers.

Brandon – UNDER. But I think he’ll at least get close this number – let’s call it 21.6 fantasy points, which is what Atlanta allows on average to the QB position, and that’s been good for a QB1-level finish at the QB position every week this season. The point here, is that you should be starting Rivers this week.

Dalton – OVER. The over/under in this game is 53.5 points, which is about as high as it gets in the NFL. San Diego can’t run and they are facing one of the NFL’s best offenses on the road, so the setup here is pretty much perfect for Rivers to have to throw a ton. The Falcons have allowed the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, and Rivers has gotten a healthy 8.2 YPA this year. I expect a huge game from him this week.

In the Brock Bowl, Emmanuel Sanders, who’s been a rollercoaster ride despite a hefty targets share, receiving yards against Houston 74.5.

Brandon – OVER. Houston has been great against the pass this season, but I think its injuries in the secondary have hit a critical mass (Kevin Johnson is out, Johnathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson are banged up). This numbers is only a few yards more than Sanders’ season average (68.8), and I think he can go those few yards above and beyond his norm given the current state of the Houston defense.

Dalton – UNDER. This number sounds about right. Houston has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season, although its secondary is dealing with injuries. I went under mainly because I have zero faith in the Texans offense, which I fully expect to get totally shut down in Denver, resulting in a heavy ground game from the Broncos.

Scott – I have to shade UNDER on this one. I don’t trust Trevor Siemian, and I figure the Broncos can win this game with defense (lots of luck, Brock Osweiler) and the ground game. And Houston’s coverage has been just fine; the Texans are the third-stingiest defense against opposing wideouts. I’m not going to be proactive using Sanders this week.

Jay Ajayi, fresh off a dismantling of Pittsburgh in Week 6, rushing yards against the visiting Bills 79.5.

Dalton – UNDER. I’m actually buying into Ajayi, but last week’s breakout was the first game he’s ever reached 50 rushing yards in his career. He’s a decent bet to score Sunday, but the Bills are allowing just 3.8 YPC, and Arian Foster is getting healthier, so give me the under here.

Scott – A weak vote of OVER, because last week’s blowup game surely will get Ajayi a solid workload this week. I’m certainly not betting on Arian Foster these days. But if you found yourself with a freshly-minted Ajayi off the waiver wire, I might look to sell to the second-highest bidder. Miami’s shown repeatedly that it doesn’t trust Ajayi (remember they danced with C.J. Anderson, drafted Kenyan Drake, and imported the aging Foster); I don’t think he’s going to be a long-running story.

Liz – UNDER. Miami’s offensive line was finally healthy in Week 6, which helped contribute to Ajayi’s monster outing. But Arian Foster is getting healthier and should see more snaps in Week 7. Considering Adam Gase’s trust issues with Ajayi and the fact that Buffalo’s run defense is giving up an average of 103 rushing yards per game, it seems unlikely that Ajayi will go over 75 total yards.

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