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Week 4 Start/Sit: No reason to be wary of Ware

Don't fear starting Ware against Pittsburgh in Week 4. (Getty)
Don’t fear starting Ware against Pittsburgh in Week 4. (Getty)

As we head into Week 4 of the 2016 NFL season, here are 12 players to give extra consideration to when filling out your lineups – six that are looking better than usual, and a half dozen that are looking worse:

(Note: Green Bay and Philadelphia are on bye in Week 4)

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STARTS

QB – Trevor Siemian, Den ($26) – Pretty cheap price for Siemian this week considering that he’s coming off the top fantasy performance by a QB in Week 3 (312 yards, 4 TD passes) and he’s facing a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed the fourth-highest QB rating (106.4). Against strong competition, Siemian has managed a top 7 completion percentage (67%) and a top 11 QB Rating (95.9). For DFSers and those looking for a plug-n-play option to replace Aaron Rodgers this week, Siemian fills the bill.

RB – Spencer Ware, KC ($23) – Ware currently sits with the 29th-highest starting% in Yahoo leagues heading into the weekend, which makes me question, What is everyone worried about? Ware is facing a Pittsburgh defense that is among the top 5 friendliest units in fantasy when it comes to RB production, and that’s based largely on its (in)ability to limit RBs in the passing game (21 catches, 290 receiving yards, 2 TD receptions allowed to the position). Ware leads all RBs in Yards from Scrimmage, and that’s thanks in large part to an average of 61.7 receiving yards per game. Ware’s dual-threat upside will be tough for the Steelers to fully contain, even with it looking like Jamaal Charles will make his season debut.

RB – Dwayne Washington, Det ($10) – Washington averaged 3.8 yards on 10 carries last week against Green Bay, which might not sound like much, that is, unless you know that the Packers defense is allowing just 2.0 YPC to the RB position this season. Washington has drawn praise from his coaching staff for his work in the absence of the injured Ameer Abdullah, and it’s expected he’ll garner and even larger share of the backfield load this week against an injury-depleted Chicago defense that has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to the RB position.

WR – Steve Smith SR., Bal ($16) – If you watched Smith pinball his way through the Jacksonville secondary for eight catches and 87 yards, you understand that he’s a freak of nature, and certainly not your average 37-year-old coming off a blown Achilles injury. Smith looks like his spry, fiery old self and that spells trouble this Sunday for an Oakland secondary allowing the most fantasy points per game to the WR position.

WR – John Brown, Ari ($14) – Brown got off to a slow start to ’16 because of post-concussion symptoms, but he showed signs of getting back to full speed with 70 receiving yards in Week 3. Now receiver teammate Michael Floyd is the one coming out of concussion protocol and, although he looks like he’ll play in Week 4, you can assume he might not see a full compliment of scrimmage plays. Extra focus in the passing game or not, I like Brown’s chances for a big play or two against a Rams defense that he averaged 100 yards against in his two ’15 meetings – the Rams have also yielded 99-plus yards to a receiver three times in the past two games.

TE – Hunter Henry, SD ($10) – With Antonio Gates likely to miss his second straight game because of a hammy injury, the athletic rookie Henry is in line for another start after impressing in Gates’ absence last week by hauling in all five of his targets for 76 yards. Henry will face off against a New Orleans defense that has yielded the sixth-fewest yards to the TE position and zero touchdowns. But, you can’t really argue the fact that the Saints haven’t exactly faced a murderer’s row of tight ends (Clive Walford, Will Tye/Larry Donnell and Jacob Tamme). What matters most in considering Henry is that New Orleans’ defense allows the second-most points (32 ppg) and yards from scrimmage (448.3). You want any highly-involved pieces of that action, and Henry certainly qualifies.

[Week 4 rankings: Overall | FLEX | QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF | K]

SITS

QB – Eli Manning, NYG ($32) – Manning has thrown for 350 yards in back-to-back games against softball matchups (New Orleans and Washington), but combined for just a single TD pass in those games. This week, the passing yards and end zone access become much more restrictive in Minnesota against a Vikings defense that has held Cam Newton and Aaron Rodgers to a combined 1:4 TD-to-INT ratio and an average of 237.5 passing yards the past two weeks.

RB – Matt Forte, NYJ ($23) – Forte is coming off modest production in Week 3 (15 carries, 65 yards) in a loss to KC in Week 3 and now faces a Seattle defense that is allowing just 3.5 YPC to opposing RBs. With receiver Eric Decker expected to miss the game with a shoulder injury, and fellow wideouts Brandon Marshall and Quincy Enunwa also banged up (though they will play), it makes it easier for Seattle to focus on Forte and load up the box. Forte is the 11th-most started RB in Yahoo leagues heading into the weekend, but he’s likely to have a difficult time cracking the top 20.

RB – Christine Michael, Sea ($21) -Michael busted out in Week 3 in a big way by going over the century mark in rushing yards and splashing pay dirt twice against a suspect 49ers defense. But expect him to crash back to earth in his encore performance this week as Seattle makes the difficult trip to the East Coast for an early Sunday game against the Jets. New York’s vaunted defensive front line brings similar talent and challenges for Seattle’s running game as that of the Rams, a team that has often given the Seahawks’ offense (and especially offensive line) fits in recent seasons. Seattle’s RBs were stuck in the mud against the Rams in Week 2 (19 carries, 53 yards, 0 TDs) and I worry that a similar result is coming this week.

WR – Allen Robinson, Jac ($33) – I understand that a player that is as athletic as Robinson, and targeted in the red zone to the extent that he is, would be a tough one to sit down in standard redraft leagues. But in shallower formats where enticing bench options exist, and in DFS formats, Robinson might best be avoided. Yes, he’s coming off a two-touchdown game in Week 3, but he’s averaging just 61 YPG and has caught just 52 percent of his intended targets from QB Blake Bortles. The matchup this week against Indy might seem exploitable, but the Colts have actually been solid in pass coverage this season, yet to allow a TD or more than 9.0 fantasy points to an opposing wideout. And, for what it’s worth, A-Rob was held to an average of 7.0 fantasy points in his two meetings against this Vontae Davis-led secondary last season.

WR – Jeremy Maclin, KC ($25) – Maclin has had a few big games in his time with the Chiefs, but the standout stat has to be that he’s been held to 68 yards or less in 15 of his 20 contests (including nine straight) in a Kansas City uniform. Facing a Pittsburgh defense that has held opposing go-to WRs A.J. Green and Jordan Matthews to an average of 29 receiving yards over the past two weeks, Maclin isn’t advertising much upside in Week 4.

TE – Kyle Rudolph, Min ($15) – Rudolph is currently the No. 2 tight end in fantasy, and ranks top 10 in starting% at the position for this week in Yahoo default leagues. But reaching TE1 levels this weekend against an improved Giants defense that has yet to yield a TE touchdown and has held the solid TE trio of Jason Witten, Jordan Reed and Coby Fleener to an average of just 5.0 fantasy PPG is likely to be a difficult task for Rudolph.