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Week 3 Fantasy Wrap: Down goes Jimmy Garoppolo

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a serious knee injury (AP Photo).
San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a serious knee injury (AP Photo).

San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs remained this season’s biggest early story with another impressive performance (Patrick Mahomes is up to a 13:0 TD:INT ratio, and their 39.3 ppg would set an NFL record), but it was Sunday’s season-ending knee injury to Jimmy Garoppolo that will be felt most over the rest of the 2018 fantasy season. Garoppolo had 251 yards with two touchdowns before an ill-advised attempt to gain extra yardage on a run resulted in a likely torn knee ligament. The injury is crushing to the fantasy values of George Kittle, Marquise Goodwin and the emerging Matt Breida (who himself returned Sunday after suffering what looked like a season-ender). Jimmy G has had his shaky moments, but he got 8.1 YPA (with a 4:0 TD:INT ratio outside of Minnesota) in the early going, and San Francisco’s offense figured to take off in the second half thanks to an easy schedule and further development in Year Two of Kyle Shanahan’s system.

Instead, we’re left with C.J. Beathard, who posted a 6.3 YPA with a 3:5 TD:INT ratio over five starts last season, when he sported a lowly 17.1 pressured completion percentage. He could improve, and Shanahan has a productive system, but this is a significant downgrade for all 49ers that can’t be overstated enough. Kittle (who ranks fifth in Air Yards among tight ends this season) can remain fantasy relevant (he had a nice TD connection Sunday with Beathard called back on a phantom penalty) at a thin position, but this makes San Francisco a team to target for opposing fantasy defenses.

As for Garoppolo replacements, Week 4 targets include Case Keenum (27% owned at home versus KC), Andy Dalton (33% at Atlanta) and Eli Manning (18% at home versus Saints), but your top priority for rest of season should be Baker Mayfield, who’s just 12% owned, impressed mightily during his NFL debut last week despite seeing zero work with the starters in practice, and looks like a future star. First up in Week 4 is a Raiders defense that’s been ripped for 8.7 YPA and a 6:1 TD:INT ratio this season. Go get Money Mayfield.

It’s a crushing blow personally (not changing my Twitter profile), and if nothing else, hurts Garoppolo’s development (at least it happened early in the season) and puts an exclamation point on the team’s big offseason signings (Jimmy G and Jerick McKinnon both suffering major injuries, while Richard Sherman looks like he’ll be out multiple weeks).

New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons

Drew Brees and Matt Ryan combined for 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions, while Alvin Kamara hauled in 15-of-20 targets. Kamara’s YPC has regressed, but he’s more than made up for it with volume, although he was unlucky not to score Sunday…There isn’t a safer WR start than Michael Thomas, who’s secured 38-of-40 targets this season…Tevin Coleman was held to just 2.2 YPC against a Saints rush D that entered with the top ranked DVOA…Calvin Ridley was arguably the player of the day, busting out for three touchdowns (matching Julio Jones’ total from last year) in incredibly impressive fashion. The Saints are back to being an ideal funnel pass defense.

Oakland Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins

The Raiders’ schedule hasn’t been easy (their opponents are a collective 8-1), but Derek Carr has gotten 8.9 YPA over the last two weeks, although fantasy owners would prefer Oakland stop trading big receiving games, with Sunday being Jordy Nelson’s turn (6-173-1)…I’m starting to think Amari Cooper is inconsistent…This trick play leading to a Jakeem Grant TD was nice…Ryan Tannehill has gotten 9.3 YPA with a 7:2 TD:INT ratio this season and is now 10-1 over his last 11 starts.

Buffalo Bills vs. Minnesota Vikings

The heavy underdog Bills (who hadn’t had a lead all season) entered halftime up 43.5 points against the spread, and many Survivor entries came to an end. I didn’t foresee Kirk Cousins throwing 55 times in this one nor Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen turning 29 targets into just 122 yards if he did…At home as big favorites without Dalvin Cook, I confidently started Latavius Murray in DFS, resulting in two carries (that tied for the team lead).

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen helped deliver the upset of the week on Sunday. (AP Photo/Bruce Kluckhohn)
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen helped deliver the upset of the week on Sunday. (AP Photo/Bruce Kluckhohn)

What a disaster…Minnesota allowed just 12.5 ppg at home last season, and Buffalo was without LeSean McCoy, but Josh Allen got 8.9 YPA without a turnover and is a real weapon with his legs. Bills fans should be encouraged.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Andrew Luck struggled in rainy conditions, getting an ugly 4.1 YPA and subbing out for Jacoby Brissett for an end-game Hail Mary. He’s clearly not back to what he once was, but at least Eric Ebron led all tight ends in Air Yards on Sunday and should remain a top-five TE as long as Jack Doyle is sidelined…Luck had one carry and finished with nearly twice as many yards as the team’s next best rusher…The Colts D is playing better than expected, but Nelson Agholor failed to deliver and is now likely to lose targets to Alshon JefferyCarson Wentz looked fine in his return, while Corey Clement got 19 touches but was outplayed by Wendell Smallwood.

Green Bay Packers vs. Washington Redskins

Aaron Rodgers had to deal with his knee injury and brutal drops, while Alex Smith and Adrian Peterson bounced back with big efforts…Aaron Jones is the back to own in Green Bay, and it’s not close. It may still result in a complete timeshare, but he’s the only one with upside…Clay Matthews had yet another questionable QB penalty called on him.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Carolina Panthers

Cam Newton attempted 24 passes but given his two rushing scores, effectively tossed five TDs for fantasy owners…Giovani Bernard was given plenty of work and will remain a strong RB2 as long as Joe Mixon is out…Christian McCaffrey had 28 carries and if he wasn’t officially a workhorse beforehand he is now. It’ll be frustrating losing cheap scores to Newton, but McCaffrey owners appear to have hit a home run…Tyler Boyd was already emerging as Cincinnati’s clear WR2 and benefitted from A.J. Green exiting Sunday’s game. His value would skyrocket should Green miss time.

Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Those who faded the Vikings with the Jaguars in Survivor have to be incensed. At home and with that Titans QB situation, hard not to blame this on a good-old fashioned letdown coming off last week’s win over the Patriots…While Jacksonville’s offense has looked less predictable without Leonard Fournette at times, he was sorely missed Sunday when Corey Davis actually recorded his best yards-per-target mark of his career (it resulted in 34 yards).

Denver Broncos vs. Baltimore Ravens

John Brown led all receivers in Air Yards in Week 3 and has the third-most in the NFL this season. He’s quite a force when healthy…Royce Freeman benefitted from Phillip Lindsay’s early ejection, while Alex Collins continues to lose scores to Javorius Allen, who given his work in the passing game and favoritism at the goal line, should be ranked similarly to Collins each week.

New York Giants vs. Houston Texans

Eli Manning played far better despite the early loss of Evan Engram, while Saquon Barkley has emerged as hoped as one of the rare true workhorses…

Saquon Barkley is looking like the real deal. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
Saquon Barkley is looking like the real deal. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

His offensive line continues to do no favors, but Deshaun Watson hasn’t looked close to the same since returning from knee surgery, although fantasy owners won’t complain about his final stat line…Lamar Miller got 10 yards on 10 carries and lost a fumble, although he salvaged his fantasy day with a TD catch as time expired. He’s tough to rely on…J.J. Watt entered with zero sacks in his last eight games but ripped off three Sunday…The Texans are 0-3 and underdogs in Indy next week.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Los Angeles Rams

Jared Goff looks great, and the Rams continue to somehow keep Todd Gurley, Brandin Cooks, Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods owners all happy. Woods has the ninth-most Air Yards in the NFL, and Gurley is on pace to score 27 touchdowns. The Rams appear unstoppable…The Chargers can’t even get a backdoor cover right.

Chicago Bears vs. Arizona Cardinals

Mitchell Trubisky continues to look beyond shaky, but the Bears won anyway, leading to the start of the Josh Rosen era. Rosen threw a bad pick-six late that would’ve given the Bears a lucky cover, but thankfully Khalil Mack was offsides. We can forgive Mack, who has as many sacks as the Raiders this season (and three times as many forced fumbles). It can’t get much worse for David Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald owners, so hopefully Rosen gets the call Week 4 despite his inauspicious debut.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Seattle Seahawks

Chris Carson ran hard for 100 yards with a score and separated himself from rookie Rashaad Penny, while Dak Prescott suffered mightily from a lack of playmakers. It’s going to be Ezekiel Elliott or bust with Cowboys this year in fantasy. Geoff Swaim led the team in targets (seven) and receiving yards (47) Sunday.

New England Patriots vs. Detroit Lions

Facing his old defensive coordinator, Matt Patricia, Tom Brady managed just 5.1 YPA with one score against a Detroit secondary that entered allowing a 117.7 Passer Rating, as an expected shootout turned into New England getting just 4.4 yards-per-play. The Pats could use a healthy Josh Gordon, and Rex Burkhead left with an injury again, so Sony Michel could soon see a big increase in value…

Kerryon Johnson ended Detroit’s record drought of 70 games without a 100-yard rusher…The Patriots are 1-2 with their lone victory against a winless Texans squad, but they should get right quick with three straight upcoming home games.

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