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Week 16 Preview: Fantasy angst over the Raiders
Let’s preview this week’s NFL action by first focusing on the games that are expected to produce the most real and fantasy points before I go around the league to highlight the key players we should be watching and why. An important note every week: check the player’s status. There is so much injury uncertainty and Friday’s practice, which occurs after this is posted, is key.
First, given this is my last column of the season, let me wish everyone happy holidays and a Happy New Year. It’s been a pleasure navigating the season with you. Now let’s get on to Week 16.
[Week 16 rankings: Overall | FLEX | QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF | K]
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Colts at Raiders (O/U: 53): There’s a lot of angst in fantasy about Michael Crabtree ($22) and Amari Cooper ($21). But that duo is actually about average for a good tandem in having big games at the same time. In other words, this is generally either/or. For context, in their first two years together Randy Moss and Cris Carter — the best WR duo ever — had at least 75 yards each or a TD each in 41% of their games vs. about 23% for Crabtree and Cooper (who no one thinks are Moss and Carter). Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt, again far better than Crabtree and Cooper, were 34.4%. Basically, expect one guy at most to go off in any of their games and Crabtree always feels like the better bet because he generally gets more targets and more targets near the end zone. Donte Moncrief ($18) practiced Wednesday and I guess he’s back, but he’s such a bad player, averaging 5.2 yards per target this year on 53 targets. That says way more than six touchdowns, predictively.
Buccaneers at Saints (O/U: 52.5): A revenge game for Drew Brees ($37), who was awful a couple of weeks ago against the Bucs. This time at home. I think Brees has thought about that game a lot and will adjust against the Bucs, who don’t adjust. Their game is playing a very simple defense focusing on putting lots of people in safe coverages with little blitzing. Bet on Brees here. The Bucs are so run-oriented, especially on first downs. They’re second to the Cowboys in the percentage of first down runs and, unlike Dallas, have no running game. This kills Jameis Winston ($32), who I now think is better than his passer rating and other stats because he doesn’t get to play downhill on first down as often as other QBs. However, this is unlikely to change. Brandin Cooks ($25) is way better in reality than in fantasy but the entire Bucs method of play is to not let anyone get behind their defense, so I fear he will be a decoy again to open stuff up underneath. The Cardinals are the league’s most blitz-happy team, which Cooks needs.
Falcons at Panthers (O/U: 52): Matt Ryan ($39) is the MVP, hands down. Lock it up. Look what he’s doing without Julio Jones. The Panthers should be feisty at home. But Carolina’s pass offense is pretty easy to defend: prevent Ted Ginn ($17) from getting over the top of your defense and double Greg Olsen ($21). Kelvin Benjamin ($17) is just a bad player and he’s still better than Devin Funchess ($12). I still think Tevin Coleman ($20) is a RB2 this week if you have a zeroRB-type of team. He can get multiple touchdowns in any game. Jonathan Stewart ($22) is a top zeroRB with over 75 rushing yards or a TD in six of 11 games. That’s exactly what we’re looking for. Plus he also has three multi-TD games, top shelf.
NOTEBOOK
— The process last week with Kirk Cousins ($36) was right like it’s been right all year. The outcome was wrong of course. Cousins is a top-tier QB because he has passing volume (fourth in attempts) and passing efficiency (third in yards per attempt). He didn’t get the latter in Week 15, but he got the former. Either is good enough usually to be winning at the position. The only two other QBs top five in both (per game) are Tom Brady ($41) and Drew Brees. Those are Cousins’ comps this year, period. And that’s how you should project him next year as he’s BADLY underperformed in TDs; his YPA typically earns 33 touchdown passes with his attempts versus the 23 he’s actually thrown.
— The Bills have nearly twice as many rushing TDs (27) as passing TDs (14), which is crazy. They are also first by a mile in rushing efficiency and 23rd in yards per attempt. They’re not making the playoffs. So there’s your lesson about the relative importance of running and passing.
— Aaron Rodgers ($37) last week is the anti-Kirk Cousins. I seem right in saying, “Don’t play him.” But Rodgers wasn’t gimpy in the cold and passed well. He just got unlucky in TDs. So the process here was wrong, though the outcome was right.
— I think the lesson this year is that WR ranking models need to be more QB-centric. It at least has to be a box we check: touchdowns, targets, QB. And if that’s the lesson, how on earth are you playing Bryce Petty’s No. 1 target, Robby Anderson ($17), in your championship?
— Lots of worry from DeMarco Murray ($33) owners about Derrick Henry ($16) on the goal line. Relax. The Titans have 17 plays inside the three this year. They have run on 14 of them. And 12 of these runs have been by Murray, who has converted six (better than average). Henry is 1-for-2.
— Philip Rivers ($39) is historically great on the road and the Browns pass defense has allowed 31 passing touchdowns this year. Rivers quietly has 29. He’s a championship-worthy play, unless the weather is bad (not expected, but still check).
— I’m amused by people talking about playing Todd Gurley ($22) in annual leagues this week. It’s easier for a camel to get through the eye of a needle than for a Gurley owner to make it to Week 16. Gurley is obviously a decent play against the 49ers run defense but remember that Gurley probably isn’t good given his horrific season.
— Tough week for David Johnson ($39) owners. Johnson is going to have to do some damage as a receiver. The only back to top 60 yards this year against Seattle was Arian Foster in Week 1. Johnson had 8-for-58 against them in Week 7. No back has scored a receiving TD but remember the Seahawks don’t see receiving backs like Johnson, either.
— In daily, I’m not buying that Tom Savage is going to help DeAndre Hopkins ($17) under the theory that “anyone is better than Osweiler.” If that’s the case, why has it taken this long for Savage to play? Savage was a prospect widely mocked by draftniks as being terrible.
