Week 16 Fantasy Lames: David Johnson to resemble human being

Each week the Noise highlights 10 over-started names whom he believes are destined to implode leave egg on his face. To qualify, each player must be started in at least 50 percent of Yahoo leagues. Speaking as an accountability advocate, I will post results, whether genius or moronic, the following week using the scoring system shown here. If you’re a member of TEAM HUEVOS, reveal your Week 16 Lames in the comments section below.

SEE WEEK 16 FLAMES HERE

Aaron Rodgers, GB, QB (97 percent started, $37 in Yahoo DFS)
Matchup: vs. Min
Not long ago the Packers were painted into a corner. At 4-6, most were willing to set their playoff chances in concrete boots and push them off the nearest, highest bridge. However, fighting through the adversity, Green Bay has emerged not only unscathed, but in a better overall position. Thanks to Ty Montgomery’s hard charging and Rodgers’ timely execution, they are very much in the wildcard and divisional hunts, just like everyone predicted many moons ago. Despite last week’s statistical misstep, Mr. Munn continues to sit atop the quarterback leaderboard. Due in large part to his steady contributions as a runner, he’s manufactured 23.0 fantasy points per game, slightly outpacing No. 2 Drew Brees (22.7) in standard Yahoo leagues. That number, unfortunately, could migrate south this week. Minnesota is locked in a deep freeze in many areas, most notably on offense, but it has performed at a stellar level defending the pass. Xavier Rhodes and Terrance Newman are near shutdowns surrendering a combined 46.9 catch rate and 47.0 passer rating to their assignments. As a unit, the Norsemen have allowed only 6.8 yards per attempt and 222.4 pass yards per game since Week 9. Rodgers notched a 213-1-1-29-1 line in their first meeting Week 2, but because of his tender calf, he’ll be hard-pressed to match that ground production. This may sound nutty, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Matt Moore (at Buf), Dak Prescott (vs. Det) and Philip Rivers (at Cle) outpace him.

Fearless Forecast: 239 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception, 14 rushing yards, 17.9 fantasy points

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David Johnson, Ari, RB (100 percent started, $39 in Yahoo DFS)
Matchup: at Sea
Insane. Lunacy. Stark raving mad. People will read this prediction and think the inmates are running the asylum in my brain. It’s understandable. After all, I championed the cause for Johnson at No. 1 overall last May and am completely enamored with the guy. Not to mention he’s essentially developed into a modern-day Marshall Faulk. He’s recorded 14 straight 100-plus total yard games, one shy of the NFL record, and scored 17 total touchdowns. He also ranks top-10 in several secondary metrics including evaded tackles, yards after contact and breakaway runs. The season-long and DFS crowds worship him. So why the craziness? As stated time and time again in this space, no player, not even the superhuman Johnson, is 100 percent clunker proof (See Antonio Brown and Tom Brady last week). Matchups, most often, rule the roost. Based on multiple components, DJ has arguably the unfriendliest this week. Seattle’s home field is always intimidating. Ear-piercing fan noise intensifies an already difficult uphill battle. The ‘Hawks, who’ve surrendered an unreal 53 total yards per game and 3.2 yards per carry to RBs over the past three weeks and the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game in contests played at the Link, are sure to throw everything at Johnson. Yes, the last time DJ exchanged punches with the divisional foe, in a glorious 6-6 tie, he bulled his way to 171 total yards, but it took him 41 touches to get there. In the rematch, Michael Bennett and K.J. Wright prevent Johnson, who’s sure to register a much lighter workload, from achieving NFL immortality, especially if Arizona’s pass defense sloughs once again.

Fearless Forecast: 17 carries, 74 rushing yards, 5 receptions, 24 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 12.3 fantasy points

Jonathan Stewart, Car, RB (69 percent started, $22 in Yahoo DFS)
Matchup: vs. Atl
In my world, Stewart is that awkward school kid who was constantly picked on, a fantasy version of Ralphie’s brother, Randy, from “A Christmas Story.” Although he’s missing is a cumbersome snowsuit. Though some enjoy his virtual company, I’ve never purposely sought him out. Sporadically, the bowling ball has smashed pins (see his highlights against Washington), but most often he’s landed in the gutter. Six times this season he’s registered 3.8 yards per carry or less in a game. Poached repeatedly by Cam Newton and Mike Tolbert and highly underused as a pass catcher, he’s a TD-dependent rusher who only occasionally crashes into the end zone. Add in his injury downside and it’s no shocker he’s finished inside the RB top-20 only twice in his nine-year career. Overrated. Stewart missed the first matchup against Atlanta with a hamstring strain. In that contest his primary replacement, Cameron Artis-Payne, carried the rock six teams for a horrendous 12 yards. The incumbent is sure to offer more production in the rematch, but banking on double-digit fantasy points is an exercise in futility. The Falcons have yielded 4.4 yards per carry to RBs, but they’ve given up only 84.2 rush yards per game. Short-field coverage is where they’ve primarily struggled. Given Stewart’s one-dimensionality, he will, as usual, need to cross the chalk to justify a bullish final standing. Good luck.

Fearless Forecast: 17 carries, 82 rushing yards, 0 receptions, 0 touchdowns, 8.2 fantasy points

Brandin Cooks, NO, WR (79 percent started, $25 in Yahoo DFS)
Matchup: vs. TB
Cooks has strung together one of the strangest fantasy football seasons in memory. Though he ranks No. 8 in wide receiver points per game, he’s eclipsed the 70 yards mark only five times and logged an end-zone spike in six games this season. Marquee tilts against Oakland (Week 1), Carolina (Week 6) and Arizona (Week 15) mask otherwise uneventful numbers. He’s a prime example of how season-long data can be very deceiving. In a way, he’s the new Vincent Jackson, a statistical marvel outside yet an inconsistent midget in. Netting only 12.8 percent of the Saints’ red-zone targets (WR87) he’s almost entirely reliant on the long bomb, evidenced by his eight sub-8.0 fantasy point performances in standard formats. Much like his teammate, Drew Brees, Cooks typically thrives inside the Superdome. His 29-544-5 output is the ninth-most productive line by a WR in home games this season. Still, his erratic play labels him untrustworthy, particularly this week. The last time Cooks squared off against Brent Grimes, he gifted owners an unwanted yule log (5-61-0). The Tampa corner, one of the best kept secrets in the league, has contained a number of top-shelf WRs allowing a 47.4 catch percentage while totaling the third-highest coverage rating according to Player Profiler. Chef Boyardee will be a serviceable WR3 in PPR, but another shipwreck is likely in standard leagues.

Fearless Forecast: 5 receptions, 69 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 9.4 fantasy points

A.J. Green, Cin, WR (50 percent started, $30 in Yahoo DFS)
Matchup: at Hou
Good little fantasy girls and boys who’ve waited patiently for Santa to deliver a timely A.J reappearance will be sorely disappointed. Sorry kid, but that NES Classic you hoped was under the tree is, in actuality, a crappy Sega Saturn. Barring an unforeseen setback, the multi-time Pro Bowler is slated to return after missing four games due to a damaged hammy. Though the Bengals are out of playoff contention, there’s obvious motivation, presumably monetary based, for Green. He’s just 36 yards shy of his sixth consecutive 1,000-yard season. Still, owners should pump the brakes. Clearly, he possesses a lofty ceiling, but there’s no guarantee he’ll play a full complement of snaps. The matchup, too, isn’t exactly promising. The Texans may again be without the services of Johnathan Joseph (ribs), but their top corner, A.J. Bouye, is arguably the most underrated pass defender currently in the NFL. Rarely included in the coverage elites conversation, he ranks No. 1 in catch percentage (43.1), passer rating (32.5) and fantasy points per game (4.3) allowed to his assignments. Green will most certainly receive at least 6-8 targets, but possible limitations could lead to only marginal results. Consider him more WR3 than slam-dunk WR1 in 12-team leagues.

Fearless Forecast: 5 receptions, 66 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 9.1 fantasy points

BONUS WEEK 16 LAMES

#TEAMHUEVOS Picks of the Week
Each week one fortunate guest prognosticator will have a chance to silence the Noise. Following the rules stated above, participants are asked to submit their “Lames” (1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 D/ST) by midnight PT Tuesdays via Twitter @YahooNoise. How large are your stones?

Reader Record: 47-58

Noise Record: 82-65 (Week 15: 6-4; W: Antonio Brown, Tom Brady, Larry Fitzgerald, Doug Martin, Spencer Ware, KC D/ST; L: Golden Tate, Lamar Miller, Drew Brees, Jason Witten)

Follow Brad on Twitter (@YahooNoise) and check out his new TV show, ‘The Fantasy Football Hour,’ Wednesdays on Altitude TV (Channel 681 on DirecTV, 412 on DISH).