Week 15 Fantasy Flames: Welcome back Alshon with loving arms

Every week the Noise highlights 13 under-started names who he believes are destined to torch the competition. To qualify, each player must be started in fewer than 60 percent of Yahoo! leagues. Speaking as an accountability advocate, I will post results, whether genius or moronic, the following week using the scoring system shown here (Thresholds – QB: 18 fpts, RB: 13 fpts, WR: 11 fpts: TE: 10 fpts; .5 PPR). If you’re a member of TEAM HUEVOS, reveal your Week 15 Flames in the comments section below.

[Week 15 rankings: Overall | FLEX | QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF | K]

Philip Rivers, SD, QB (53 percent started, $32 in Yahoo DFS)
Matchup: vs. Oak
Predominantly this season, the fantasy waters tied to Rivers are polluted. Wade in the sludge and nausea normally follows. The five-time Pro Bowler has chipped in the occasional top-12 performance, but persistent turnovers and general misfires have dragged his otherwise effective numbers down, which explains why he ranks QB16 in per game average. Over his past six contests he’s totaled a disgusting 15 turnovers and completed 57.1 percent of his attempts. That’s practically Blake Bortles territory, folks. Still, San Diego’s ongoing vulnerabilities on defense combined with lopsided game scripts have masked his deficiencies. Since Week 7 he’s raced past the 18 fantasy point line three times, logging six straight multi-TD efforts. His chemistry with Tyrell Williams and Dontrelle Inman has definitely bubbled. This week with title hopes on the line, the animated passer needs to be trusted. Possibly down Melvin Gordon, Rivers better do extra lat pulls in the gym to prepare his shoulder for a rigorous workload. Due to the RB’s potential absence and the high-powered opponent, Oakland, he could flirt with 50 attempts. In his first clash with the Raiders Week 5, he needed only 30 chucks to record his finest fantasy tally of the season (359-4-2). The Raiders have shown some improvement defending the pass since that dissection, but allowing 7.9 yards per attempt, 274.4 pass yards and 1.6 vertical strikes per game, another top-five output is attainable for the Bolo. Tom Brady (at Den), Drew Brees (at Ari) and Andrew Luck (at Min) owners panicking about daunting matchups should employ the Charger’s services with the utmost confidence.

Fearless Forecast: 301 passing yards, 3 passing touchdowns, 2 turnovers, 22.0 fantasy points

Jerick McKinnon, Min, RB (27 percent started, $12)
Matchup: vs. Ind
Place the Abominable Snow Monster of “Rudolph” fame behind the Minnesota offensive line and it’s doubtful it would average anywhere close to 4.0 yards per carry. After the loss of Matt Kalil in late September, the Vikings’ ability to create space disappeared into thin air. As a result, McKinnon and Matt Asiata are on pace for near historic futility. Seventeen teams have averaged below 3.0 yards per carry during a season since 1940. The 1994 New England Patriots, who actually made the playoffs and were led by ‘The Derrière’ Marion Butts, were the last to run in quicksand. Minnesota could soon add its name to the list. Though the rushing attack is in dire straits and McKinnon’s secondary metrics paint a hideous picture – he ranks outside the position’s top-30 in several key categories including evaded tackles, juke rate and catch percentage – he’s a recommended RB2/FLEX option in 12-teamers this week. The Colts are a very alluring matchup. On the year, they’ve yielded 4.5 yards per carry, 139.8 total yards per game and 13 total touchdowns to RBs, good for the 10th-most fantasy points allowed. Netting just over 62 percent of the opportunities since Week 11, McKinnon should push his way, mostly in three-yard chunks, to noteworthy numbers. Keep in mind 10 rushers have surpassed 13 fantasy points against Indy this year. He’s a complete wildcard, but remember playoff heroes always emerge from the strangest of places.

Fearless Forecast: 12 carries, 41 rushing yards, 5 receptions, 28 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 15.4 fantasy points

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Mike Gillislee, Buf, RB (3 percent started, $18)
Matchup: vs. Cle
To LeSean McCoy supporters, Gillislee is the Stripe of goal-line gremlins (BTW, “Gremlins,” like “Die Hard,” is a Christmas movie. I will fight anyone who disagrees, in a steel cage if necessary). He’s, an incredibly annoying poacher who, similar to what Karlos Williams did last year, has stolen multiple scores from the RB1 and lowered his overall ceiling. In fact, he’s found the end zone six times in his past nine games. As a standalone, the second-year rusher is a high quality back. Behind Buffalo’s above average offensive line – it ranks No. 15 in run-blocking according to Football Outsiders – 10.6 percent of his runs have gone for 15 yards or more, the fourth-highest rate at his position. Equally impressive, his 1.25 fantasy points per opportunity tucks inside the RB top-five. McCoy will continue to hog the heavy side of the 75-25 split, but on a projected 10-plus touches this week, Gilly has to be considered a legitimate RB2 in 12-team and deeper formats. His opponent, the Chihuahuas, shower their opponents with unconditional love. On the season, they’ve surrendered 4.5 yards per carry and the second-most fantasy points to RBs. In total, 11 plowshares have rolled their way to double-digit outputs against them. With game flow sure to favor the ground game after halftime, it’s entirely predictable the youngster compiles one of his most productive efforts of the season. Feed him after midnight.

Fearless Forecast: 12 carries, 63 rushing yards, 1 reception, 5 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 13.3 fantasy points

BONUS BACK: Kenneth Dixon, Bal, RB (17 percent started, $16)
Matchup: vs. Phi
It finally happened. No, I didn’t succumb to social media pressures demanding I apply a Bic to my sparsely-haired dome … DIXON BROKE OUT! Box score warriors, who would idiotically cite his 3.5 yards per carry while blindly ignoring his receiving production and game tape, disagree, but the rookie from Louisiana Tech was nothing short of spectacular Monday in Foxboro. Shades of Ray Rice, he routinely made defenders miss, showed considerable power and caught nearly every pass thrown his direction (8 of 11 to be exact). His most impressive run of the night was a six-yard gain with 6-foot-3, 270-pound Chris Long strapped to his back. Most importantly for fantasy purposes, he relegated Terrance West to the bench after halftime commanding the snap (42-14) and touch counts. In the end, he finished with 81 yards and a score on a season-high 19 touches. Hyped in this space for weeks, it was refreshing to see the rookie, a player who could be next year’s Melvin Gordon, bolster his profile. This week, he should be trusted as an RB2, even in eight-team leagues. He and the Ravens exchange pleasantries with an Eagles run defense that’s allowed 4.3 yards per carry and the 10th-most rushing yards to RBs (98.8) since Week 6. Assuming John Harbaugh deploys Dixon as the featured back, bank on at least another 80-plus total yards with a score.

Fearless Forecast: 14 carries, 60 rushing yards, 5 receptions, 27 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 17.2 fantasy points

Alshon Jeffery, Chi, WR (16 percent started, N/A)
Matchup: vs. GB
Dropped in droves weeks ago after the league announced he was slapped with a four-game suspension due to a positive PED test, Alshon is not only worth re-acquiring, he’s a very employable WR2 even in shallow leagues. Paralleling his franchise, Jeffery has largely experienced a lost season. When in the lineup, the free-agent-to-be flushed $100 bills routinely. His 22.3 percent targets share was fairly handsome, but his 55.4 catch rate, two touchdowns and No. 47 rank in yards after catch were positively dreadful. His subsequent 7.7 fantasy points per game (WR39) forced him, understandably, to fantasy benches. Alongside Allen Robinson and DeAndre Hopkins there’s no bigger wide receiver bust. But Jeffery could save some face during the most critical time of the season. This week, he and the Bears welcome arch-nemesis Green Bay and its beleaguered secondary. To be fair, the Packers have excelled defensively the past couple weeks, evidenced by Russell Wilson’s Week 14 tanking. Still, its pass D remains pliable. Green Bay has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to WRs this year. Getting specific, corners Damarious Randall and Ladarius Gunter have given up a combined 11.4 fantasy points per game to their assignments. Matt Barkley and Alshon will need to establish a rapport quickly, but gut says they connect at least 4-6 times, especially if Aaron Rodgers unloads early on Chicago’s ragtag defense.

Fearless Forecast: 5 receptions, 61 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 14.7 fantasy points

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Pierre Garcon, Was, WR (19 percent started, $18)
Matchup: vs. Car
Many fantasy owners would label Garcon the escargot of wide receivers, a generally unappetizing item no matter the matchup or amount of butter sauce applied. However, the savvy veteran is on an upward trend, which most are turning a blind eye to. Over his past five games, he’s generated a sizable targets share (7.2 per game) racking 5.6 receptions and 75.4 yards per game. He’s also found the end zone twice and notched a 70-plus catch rate. For those with PPR interests, he’s been more than serviceable as a WR3. The Panthers have tightened up in recent weeks defensively, especially against the pass. They rank middle of the pack in fantasy points per game allowed to the position, but 13 different wideouts have crossed the 65-yard mark against them. Garcon will likely scrap with James Bradberry more often than not, a talented rookie who’s surrendered 7.1 fantasy points per game and a 74.7 passer rating to his assignments. Still, Kirk Cousins, with the exception of last week’s average offering, has exhibited a fiery hand over the past several weeks (314.5 ypg, 13:3 TD:INT split), which explains the uptick in production for the receiver. The algebra isn’t hard: scorching quarterback plus targets increase equals useful fantasy numbers. If you’re the studious type, insert Frenchy into your lineup.

Fearless Forecast: 6 receptions, 63 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 15.3 fantasy points

WEEK 15 SHOCKER SPECIAL (Under 10 percent started)

Robby Anderson, NYJ, WR (1 percent started, $13)
Matchup: vs. Mia
Yukon Cornelius and Hermie the Dentist. The Grinch and his trusty dog Max. Frosty and Karen. Unbreakable bonds decorate the television screen this time each year. Similar to their cartoon equivalents, Bryce Petty and Anderson are equally inseparable. Their on-field romance is budding right before owner eyes. It started immediately when Petty replaced Ryan Fitzpatrick in the Colts’ Monday night trampling two weeks ago and rekindled last Sunday in San Francisco. In those contests, Anderson was targeted 22 times, the second-most looks by any wide receiver during that stint, catching 10 balls for 162 yards and a TD. His four drops were embarrassing, but it’s quite clear Petty has a serious man-crush on the speedster. Expected to lure another significant targets share, Anderson shouldn’t be viewed as a flash-in-the-pan, but rather a viable WR3 even in 10-team settings. His Saturday showdown with Miami will only raise his worth. Though the Dolphins rank middle of the pack versus wide receivers in fantasy points allowed, corners Tony Lippett and Byron Maxwell have largely been sucker punched by their assignments, conceding a combined 10-plus fantasy points per game. It’s very possible Anderson burns either deep at least a couple times. No, it’s not the eggnog talking. Anderson is an ascending star who could prove to be an unsung playoff hero.

Fearless Forecast: 5 receptions, 83 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 16.8 fantasy points

BONUS WEEK 15 FLAMES

#TEAMHUEVOS PICKS OF THE WEEK
Each week one fortunate guest prognosticator will have a chance to silence the Noise. Following the rules stated above, participants are asked to submit their “Flames” (1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 D/ST) by midnight PT Tuesdays via Twitter @YahooNoise. How large are your stones?

Reader record: 29-66

Noise season record: 58-96 (Week 14: 5-7; W: Malcolm Mitchell, Kenny Britt, Rob Kelley, Isaiah Crowell, Joe Flacco; L: Breshad Perriman, Christine Michael, Tyrod Taylor, Derrick Henry, Ted Ginn, Cameron Brate, Detroit D/ST)

Follow Brad on Twitter (@YahooNoise) and check out his new TV show, ‘The Fantasy Football Hour,’ Wednesdays on Altitude TV (Channel 681 on DirecTV, 412 on DISH).