Week 13 Fantasy Over/Unders: What players will ruin/reward your title dreams?

With the fantasy playoffs on the horizon, this week’s OVER/UNDER piece takes on a slightly different personality. Including is a DFS snapshot for the upcoming week and BOLD predictions for what players boom/bust during the most important time of the fantasy football year.

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Gazing into the crystal ball, what marquee name will ruin owner hopes of scoring a virtual trophy this playoff season (Weeks 14-16)?

Liz – ANDREW LUCK. The most sacked QB in the league, Andrew Luck has been knocked to the ground a whopping 35 times. To his credit, he remains the eighth most productive fantasy QB overall. Still, his schedule is not kind from Weeks 14 through 16, as he’ll host Houston and then go on the road for two straight weeks @ Minnesota and @ Oakland.

The Texans and Vikings are among squads giving up the fifth fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs (and while the Vikings have faltered, they’re much better at home than on the road). The Raiders are a more seemingly friendly matchup, but their defense has improved and Kahlil Mack is shaping up to be one of the league’s most dominant edge rushers.

Add in the fact that the team’s best receiver has been dealing with both a nagging hamstring and back injuries, and it appears Luck may be running out.

Dalton – MARCUS MARIOTA. He not only has a bye this week but has to face Denver and then two road games, including Jacksonville. I love Mariota, but the Broncos have allowed the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks while the Jags have ceded the seventh fewest, so it’s a tough road ahead.

Brandon – JAY AJAYI. Ajayi became a marquee name after rolling off a combined 529 rushing yards and 4 TD rushes over a three-game stretch from Weeks 6-9. But he’s quieted down since then, averaging just 67 rushing yards over his past three games. And now he’ll face a murderer’s row of fantasy run defenses (@BAL, ARI, @NYJ, @BUF) over the next month, with none of the four teams that he’ll face allowing 4.0 YPC, and the next next two opponents allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to the RB position.

Andy – I really hate to say this, but I’ve gotta go with MARCUS MARIOTA. He’ll face two of the NFL’s three stingiest pass defenses in Weeks 14-16 (Den, Jax). In the fantasy playoffs, I’m looking for players who have a shot at mega-weeks, not guys who might be able to deliver, say, a 220-2-2 fantasy line. It’s been a great ride with Mariota, but you won’t want to use him in the money weeks.

Scott – My depressing Titans fade went up last week; check it out, here. I also think it could be a petering out for ROB KELLY in Washington; he doesn’t see an easy rushing matchup (Philly, Carolina, Chicago) over the final three weeks, and two of those games are on the road. That offense is all about chucking the ball first and foremost, anyway.

Brad – JAY AJAYI. Before you projectile spit your beer onto the screen, hear me out. Miami’s offensive line is in a ruinous state and the rusher’s schedule isn’t for the faint of heart. Yes, he pummeled the Jets and Bills earlier this season, but no two games are ever the same. Considering those contests are on the road, they should play out very differently.

And chances are you won’t survive the opening round with Ajayi in your lineup anyways. Miami’s Week 14 foe, Arizona, has allowed just 68.3 rush yards per game and 3.2 yards per carry to RBs this year. Expect several sub 80-yard performances down the stretch.

On the flip side, what largely overlooked commodity will reward risk takers as a playoff pillar?

Brandon – COLIN KAEPERNICK. He’s the No. 2 fantasy QB over the past month, and the No. 6 overall fantasy QB since he took back over the reins of the 49ers offense in Week 6. And his upcoming schedule is far from daunting, as each of his next four opponents rank among the 13th-most generous in terms of QB Rating allowed – that Week 15 matchup with Atlanta looks especially good.

Andy – JAMEIS WINSTON isn’t overlooked, exactly, but he’s not an auto-start for fantasy owners. He’ll face New Orleans twice in the fantasy playoffs, in Weeks 14 and 16, and it’s tough to imagine that not going well. The Saints rank No. 27 against the pass, and they’re allowing 7.8 yards per attempt. Winston should be a monster in the most important weeks on the fantasy calendar.

Scott – JASON WITTEN currently stands No. 12 on the PPR leaderboard at tight end, so not everyone views him as a sure starter right now. But with the Giants, Bucs, and Lions on the fantasy playoff schedule, that could change quickly. Witten had nine grabs against NYG earlier this year; Tampa’s seam coverage has evaporated over the last month; and Detroit is the ultimate in tight-end escorting.

Brad – DONTRELLE INMAN. People are turning a blind eye on the Charger, but he deserves to be a focal point. Tyrell Williams is fantastic, but Travis Benjamin isn’t the same player since suffering a PCL injury. As a result, Inman has quietly attracted at least 20 percent of the targets share in three consecutive weeks. His 6-119-1 Week 12 versus Houston wasn’t an aberration. Blessed with undeniably the easiest fantasy playoff slate for wide receivers (at Car, Oak, at Cle — each ranks inside the top-10 in fantasy points allowed to WRs), 5-70-1 lines could become routine. Mine that diamond, #TeamHuevos.

Liz – CAMERON BRATE. Started in just over 30 percent of leagues, Brate has a dream schedule upcoming. Facing New Orleans twice with a trip to Dallas sandwiched in the middle, the Bucs’ second most productive pass-catcher will face two defenses amongst the most generous to the tight end position.

Dalton – THOMAS RAWLS. I’m sticking with him even after such a disappointing Week 12. I still ranked Rawls as an RB1 this week and will be using him in DFS. The Seahawks play three of their next four games at home, and he remains their clear lead back on a team that’s going to be heavily favored. Don’t give up on him. He’s going to be a difference maker.

Donning the DFS cap, what commodity is terribly UNDERVALUED in Week 13?

Andy – I’ll take MARQUESS WILSON at $16, coming off an 11-target, 125-yard game. Do I think Wilson is actually good, by NFL standards? Um … no, not particularly. But he clearly enjoys rapport with Matt Barkely (also not good), and the matchup is plenty friendly. The Niners’ defense has already allowed 26 passing TDs, the second-highest total in the league.

Scott – If Jordan Reed isn’t able to go, VERNON DAVIS is an easy punch at $10. I don’t know how the Niners and Broncos screwed this up last year, but Davis has plenty of juice left in those 32-year-old legs. I’ll also sign off on the Wilson endorsement above; for more on that, check out the Week 13 Rankings Podcast.

Brad – TYREEK HILL. ‘The Freak’ possesses enough electricity to power megalopolises. His variable scoring (receiving, rushing, returning) and prime matchup (vs. Atlanta down Desmond Trufant) arrow to another double-digit effort, especially if Jeremy Maclin is unable to return. At $18 in our DFS contest, he’s sure to turn a tidy profit in range of 70-80 total yards with a TD.

Conversely, what DFS option is the most OVERVALUED in Week 13?

Scott – Given the yips of Carson Palmer, I can’t drop a $26 check on LARRY FITZGERALD. Arizona’s top wideout hasn’t scored since Week 5, although his catches and yards have been fairly reliable. You can still play him in standard formats, but you need a better upside — and heck, a better floor too — for the DFS clipboard, especially at this buy-in.

Brad – DOUG MARTIN. His price ($18) is very attractive and the workload is sure to land in the 20-25 touch range, but he averaged a pedestrian 3.0 yards per carry the past two weeks and failed to find the end zone. San Diego, which has surrendered only 3.9 yards per carry, is stiffer than its No. 6 ranking in fantasy points allowed to RBs implies. Throw in Tampa’s cross country trip and the Swole Mongoose is worth circumventing.

Liz – JAY AJAYI ($26). Like many good-but-not-quite-elite RBs, Ajayi’s success is directly related to the effectiveness of his offensive line. It’s no surprise that he began to dominate fantasy rosters once his o-line was healthy and gelling. Over the past few weeks, however, the Phins have been without three of their five trenchmen… and Ajayi’s production has consequently slumped. There’s a chance that the Dolphins get Branden Albert and Laremy Tunsil back in Week 13, but with injuries still lingering, and facing a Ravens squad that’s allowed the fewest points to opposing rushers on the season, Ajayi isn’t an automatic RB1.

DUMPSTER DIVING. With shovel in hand, what player under 25-percent started should fantasy owners insert into their lineups?

Brandon – MARQUESS WILSON. Wilson is currently (as of Thursday) only started in 4 percent of Yahoo leagues, which is crazy when you consider that he is coming off a 8/125/1 line against Tennessee last week and faces a 49ers defense in Week 13 that has allowed the most fantasy points per game to the WR position – including 20 TD receptions allowed to wideouts, three more than any other team in the league.

Liz – DONTRELLE INMAN. On the field for over 90 percent of the team’s offensive snaps since Travis Benjamin went down with a knee injury, Inman has emerged as San Diego’s No. 2 WR. With Tyrell Williams battling a shoulder issue (which he also dealt with in college), Inman figures to see an uptick in volume. After putting up a 6-119-1 stat line in Week 12, the Virginia product will do battle against a Tampa Bay secondary that – while improved – has struggled against wideouts taller than six feet.

Dalton – DONTRELLE INMAN. After seeing nine targets in each of his previous two games, Inman secured all six of his looks last week, going for 119 yards and a score against a Houston secondary that’s yielded the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Tyrell Williams is now banged up and highly questionable to play this week in a game the Chargers are favored with a pretty high over/under. Inman is a sneaky play.

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