Week 12 Start/Sit: Smallwood a tasty bird for the holiday weekend

As we head into Week 12 of the 2016 NFL season, here are 12 players to give extra consideration to when filling out your lineups – six that are looking better than usual, and a half dozen that are looking worse:

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STARTS

QB – Carson Palmer, Ari ($29) – Palmer is an under $30 bargain in DFS and is 13th among QBs in Start% this week in Yahoo leagues. Considering that Palmer is fourth in the league in pass attempts per game and is facing an Atlanta defense that has allowed the most fantasy points per game to the QB position, it certainly feels to me like Palmer isn’t getting enough respect. The Falcons have also allowed the most receiving yards to the RB position, and Palmer has a running back at his disposal – David Johnson – who leads all RBs in receiving yards, so that should be a big part of Palmer’s success through the air on Sunday.

RB – Wendell Smallwood, Phi ($14) – With Ryan Mathews (MCL sprain) and Darren Sproles (broken rib) hobbled this week, look for Smallwood to push at least 20 touches against a Green Bay defense that has allowed 17-plus fantasy points to a RB five times in the past six games. The rookie is a reasonable bet to pick up roughly 80-90 total yards and a touchdown (assuming Mathews sits out this week).

RB – Bilal Powell, NYJ ($14) – Powell has eclipsed 40 receiving yards four times this season and ranks eighth among RBs in receptions (36). These stats are especially relevant this week as the Jets prepare to host a New England defense that allows the third-most receiving yards per game to the RB position. With game flow (read: New England jumping out to a lead) having a very good chance of pushing the Jets to the air early in this contest, Powell could see more than the season-high seven targets that he turned into seven catches, 57 yards and a TD against the Rams in Week 10.

WR – Tyler Lockett, Sea ($10) – Lockett is a bargain-basement $10 in DFS and is only 52nd among WRs in Start% this week. He’s only that far off the fantasy radar because a MCL injury early in the season has wreaked havoc on his production. But now finally healthy again, Lockett has considerable upside in a matchup against a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the WR position. And the Bucs lead the league in pass plays of 40-plus yards allowed (12). With the Seahawks starting to get things rolling on the ground, you can count on play action deep routes to be a big part of Seattle’s offensive game plan. And when it comes to going deep, Lockett, who just missed a TD last week on a 30-yard grab, is the best weapon Seattle has.

WR – Devante Parker, Mia ($17) – Going against a San Francisco defense that has allowed the most fantasy points per game (and a league-high 18 TD passes) to the WR position, Parker ranks just 35th in Start% this week. The Dolphins’ physically gifted second-year wideout has come on of late with a combined 18 targets, 13 catches, 182 yards a TD over his past two contests. In such a juicy matchup, I give Parker great odds of going for 70-plus yards and another score – don’t be surprised if teammate Kenny Stills also puts up similar numbers, and he is somebody I’d also be looking at if I was a desperate A.J. Green owner.

TE – Zach Ertz, Phi ($15) – Over the past three weeks, no tight end has more catches (20) and targets (25) than Ertz, yet he’s still just 14th at the position in Start% this week. But he has an easily-argued case for top 10 status against a Green Bay defense that has allowed five tight ends to eclipse 50 receiving yards this season, including in each of the past three games.

[Week 12 rankings: Overall | FLEX | QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF | K]

SITS

QB – Aaron Rodgers, GB ($38) – Considering the numbers he’s posted of late, it’d be hard to bench Rodgers in a standard Yahoo league. But I certainly wouldn’t pay for the third-highest priced QB in DFS this week. Rodgers will travel to Philly to face an Eagles defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to QBs in home contests – 234.5 passing yards per game, 0.5 TD passes per game and 1.0 INTs per game. And the Eagles haven’t faced all softies at home either, with Matt Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger among the list a quarterbacks that have been stymied in Philly.

RB – LeSean McCoy, Buf ($31) – McCoy is expected to play this week but, coming off thumb surgery, this isn’t the best time to pay up for Shady in DFS contests. And those owners with decent RB depth might want to consider holding out the Bills’ featured back, as his matchup isn’t great – Jacksonville allows less than 3.9 YPC to opposing RBs and has allowed 32.3% less fantasy points per game to the RB position than the league average over the past three weeks. I expect Buffalo to give backup RB Mike Gillislee a bigger workload than usual this week, especially at the goal line, where you would assume McCoy will be left out of the mix because of ball security concerns.

RB – Latavius Murray, Oak ($25) – Don’t assume that the absence of Luke Keuchly (concussion) from the middle of Carolina’s defense is going to open up the flood gates for Murray. The Panthers have held RBs to just one total touchdown in their past nine games, and the team is conceding just 3.6 YPC on the season. It takes a village (not just a great middle linebacker) to post those kind of numbers, and that village stepped up last season and held opposing RBs to a 3.5 YPC clip from Weeks 2-4 with Kuechly out, also because of a concussion. Murray tallied a solid 92 yards from scrimmage on Monday night in Week 11, but 59 of those yards came through the air as Oakland exploited the inability of Houston’s linebackers to cover running backs in the passing game. For Murray, his path to success in Week 12 would likely have to follow a similar pattern as Carolina can be hurt by RBs in the passing game, but it doesn’t give up anything on the ground easily. And I’m leery about basing my decision to start Murray this week on his upside in the passing game, as he’s only the third-leading receiver at the RB position on his own team.

WR – Emmanuel Sanders, Den ($23) – Sanders ranks just 32nd among WRs (minimum 5 games) in fantasy points per game, yet he is the 14th-most expensive receiver in DFS this week. Sanders’ main issue is an inability to consistently find the end zone, as he hasn’t splashed pay dirt in his past six games. Sanders also has an odd aversion to scoring touchdowns in home games, as he has just one score in his past 19 contests at Sports Authority Field (postseason games included). While the matchup against Kansas City, on paper, is not a major deterrent for Sanders, his lack of TD upside is.

WR – DeAndre Hopkins, Hou ($18) – I’m really hoping for a reverse jinx by slotting Hopkins in this spot, because he’s a fantastic talent and he deserves better than to be saddled with the ineptness of QB Brock Osweiler. But we have to call a spade a spade, at this point. Hopkins is currently the 14th-most started WR in Yahoo leagues this week, and there’s just no way he can justify that (though his DFS price tag is close to fair). Since Week 3, he’s 60th at his position in total fantasy points scored, averaging 46.6 yards and tallying just one touchdown in that eight-game span. Last week, he should have had a long TD, but the ref erred in calling him out of bounds en route to the end zone. It’s been that kind of season for Hopkins, and there’s nothing – including the matchup against San Diego defense that is middle of the pack in terms of limiting fantasy WRs – to suggest anything will change this week.

TE – Coby Fleener, NO ($13) – Like Hopkins, Fleener is priced appropriately in DFS this week, but the Yahoo season-long crowd is way too bullish on the Saints tight end, currently the 10th-most started at his position this week. Fleener did manage to find the end zone last week, but it was his first score in his past five games, a span in which he’s averaged just 33 yards per game, which just so happens to be the amount of yards (33.4) that his Week 12 opponent (Los Angeles Rams) yields to the TE position on a per game basis.