Week 11 Fantasy Over/Under: Dixon to get down in Big D

Fantasy is a speculative game. Predict the future, and you look like a genius. Don’t, and you’re painfully human. Gazing into the crystal ball, here’s our view on six intriguing over/unders for Week 11.

Donning the DFS cap, what commodity is terribly UNDERVALUED in Week 11?

Andy – MARTELLUS BENNETT is a steal at $16, with Gronk unlikely to play against the Niners. Bennett just delivered a seven-catch, 102-yard performance versus Seattle, and he’ll face far less resistance on Sunday. For a week, he’s a DFS gift.

Scott – I know CAMERON MEREDITH hasn’t shown much with Jay Cutler, but the usage tree narrows significantly with Alshon Jeffery out of the mix. Meredith can have a mediocre game and still make a tidy profit on his $12 tag.

Brad – ALLEN ROBINSON ($23). Finally starting to rebuild damaged reputation. Attracted 39 targets and caught 23 passes for 253 yards with a pair of scores the past two weeks. Blessed with fast-track matchup against Detroit secondary surrendering 7.8 pass yards per attempt. Voice of reason says he tops 75 yards and finds the end zone yet again.

[Week 11 rankings: Overall | FLEX | QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF | K]

Conversely, what DFS option is the most OVERVALUED in Week 11?

Scott – DOUG MARTIN ($23) can’t be used on the road against KC, especially after a lousy efficiency game (2.1 YPC) last week. I’m something of an ISAIAH CROWELL sympathizer, but his $22 days are far in the rear-view mirror. TODD GURLEY ($21) is on probation until further notice. GOLDEN TATE ($25) is on a nice run, but the goal is to find the next value wideout; he’s not good enough to command an expectant price.

Brad – LARRY FITZGERALD ($27). Palmer is a shell of his 2015 self. Several secondary measurements are heading in the wrong direction including his laughable play on the road (72.0 passer rating). Fitz has been a warrior, but dealing with a tender knee and facing an intimidating Minnesota secondary, with or without Xavier Rhodes, arrows to disappointment. It’s conceivable he falls short of 70 yards.

Liz – TOM BRADY ($40). I get it. The matchup is plumb and Tommy Boy is a stud. But less than a week ago, we watched the Patriots take the ball out of the air and feed LaGarrette Blount at the goal line. The 49ers are allowing the most rushing yards per game (180.4). There’s no reason to lean on the pass, especially with Gronk sidelined. Of course Brady will produce, but I don’t think he’s the best QB play this Sunday.

DUMPSTER DIVING. With shovel in hand, what player under 25-percent started should fantasy owners insert into their lineups?

Brad – KENNETH DIXON. The time is now for Baltimore’s most talented back. He’s healthy and exhibiting the vision, sharp cuts and versatility that seduced many out of the NFL Draft. West may still carve out a goal-line/early-down role, but Dixon is a good bet for 13-14 touches, 80-plus yards and a possible score. Keep in mind Dallas has allowed 4.3 yards per carry and 5.1 receptions per game to RBs this year.

Liz – ROBERT WOODS. Listen, I didn’t want to make Robert Woods a thing, but with Sammy Watkins’ return date up in the air, Woods has stepped up… and, well, become a thing. Before heading into the team’s Week 10 bye, Woods stunned skeptics (like me) by converting 10 of 13 balls for over 160 yards at Seattle. His production is far from consistent, but in Week 11 he’ll face a Bengals squad that gave up three receiving scores to the Giants last Sunday. FF: 6 for 76 and 1 TD

Dalton – COLIN KAEPERNICK. He’s averaged 45.6 rushing yards since taking over starting duties, and Kap is going to have to throw a ton as 14-point underdogs in a game with an over/under of 51.5 points. The Patriots defense isn’t anything special, so I have Kap (who’s gotten 8.8 YPA over the last two games) as a borderline QB1 this week. He’s readily available in the vast majority of leagues.

Dak Prescott was the talk of the town this past week after his and Zeke Elliott’s heroics in Pittsburgh. Hosting the Ravens in Week 11, final fantasy rank among QBs 15.5. (Under = Inside the top-15; Over = Outside the top-15).

Liz – UNDER. The Ravens have the best run defenses in the league. The way to beat them is through the air. Dak is going to have to sling the ball. Luckily, he has one of the league’s most talented outside threats among his arsenal of passing weapons. Since coming out of the team’s bye, Prescott has been a top-seven fantasy QB each week. Behind a rock solid offensive line, and with full command of the offense, that trend figures to continue for the fourth consecutive outing.

Dalton – UNDER. In fairness I have Prescott as my QB15 this week, so it doesn’t get any closer than that. He’s been on fire of late, totaling 11 touchdowns over the past four games, and he’s up to 8.4 YPA on the year. But Dallas’ defense is playing well, and they remain a run-first team that should mostly be playing with the lead as touchdown favorites at home against an inferior Ravens squad (that defends QBs pretty well), so his upside is limited this week. Still, he’s in the top-15 for me.

Brandon – UNDER. He’s finished top 15 in seven straight games, and he’s facing a Baltimore defense that has allowed 9 TD passes in four road games. On the season, Prescott is top 10 in fantasy PPG at the QB position, and I don’t think the matchup is so dire as to discount him outside the top 15, especially with the usual crowd of top 15 quarterbacks thinned by the bye-week observances of Matt Ryan and Philip Rivers.

[Join the $110k Baller for Week 11 |Tips for your Daily lineup]

Marvin Jones, who’s failed to find the end zone in three straight weeks and is coming off a 1-5-0 clunker vs. Minnesota, receiving yards versus the Jags 79.5.

Dalton – UNDER. He’s averaged 35.8 yards (on a modest 5.6 targets) over his past five games, as he’s simply not being used like he was earlier in the season. Jacksonville has actually allowed the 10th fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this year, so the matchup might not be as enticing as it seems either. Jones falls under this number.

Brandon – UNDER. Jones has gone under this number in five of his past six games, and way under in four of those contests. Then you have to consider that Jacksonville is no slouch against opposing wideouts, having allowed the fourth-fewest yards per game to the position.

Andy – I’ll take the UNDER on this one, because A) the Jaguars have been excellent against the pass (6.2 Y/A) and B) Jones’ targets have evaporated. He’s averaging just 5.6 chances per game over his last five. I haven’t completely given up on him, mind you, because he’s still a terrific downfield and red-zone option for Detroit. But his opportunities aren’t what they were back in September.

C.J. Prosise, off a monster workload and 100-plus total yard game, standard fantasy points scored this time around against visiting Philadelphia 9.9.

Brandon – UNDER. I have Prosise projected for something in the neighborhood of 80-90 total yards, but I don’t see him getting a TD, and that’s going to hold him under. I’d expect Thomas Rawls to get any point-blank shots at the goal line, and the Eagles aren’t very generous in terms of giving up RB touchdowns – just 5 TDs allowed for the season, and none in the past four games.

Andy – OVER, because I’m feeling bold. It’s great that Rawls is back, but I expect him to be merely a rotational runner this week. I’ll be surprised if Prosise doesn’t see 15-18 touches, coming off a stellar game. He won’t need to break the plane to hit this total.

Scott – OVER. Bet on the baton, and bet on a player in good form. I need to see it from Thomas Rawls before I project it; he’s missed too much time.

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