Week 11 fantasy football rankings: Start Taysom Hill at your own peril

We’re now entering Week 11 of the NFL season, meaning the fantasy football playoffs are quickly closing in. There are four teams on bye this week, with the Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers getting an opportunity to recuperate up while the rest of the NFL plays on.

Below are my half-point PPR rankings for Week 11.

QB

1. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (at Seattle Seahawks) - Played on Thursday

2. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs (at Las Vegas Raiders)

Of the three AFC West opponents Mahomes has matched up against in his career, statistically, he’s had the most success against the Raiders. In five games, he has averaged 306.8 passing yards per game while owning a 13:2 touchdown-interception ratio, both of which are his best numbers against divisional foes. In his first matchup against Las Vegas in 2020, Mahomes and the Chiefs lost, but the Super Bowl champion did post his fourth-best fantasy performance of the season. The Raiders have been a welcomed matchup for opposing passers, as they are allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per game to the position this season. Additionally, Las Vegas placed eight defensive starters on the COVID-19 reserve list on Wednesday. Their status for Sunday’s game is uncertain.

3. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. New York Jets)

4. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks (vs. Arizona Cardinals) - Played on Thursday

5. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers (at Jacksonville Jaguars)

6. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens (vs. Tennessee Titans)

7. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (at Indianapolis Colts)

8. Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans (vs. New England Patriots)

9. Cam Newton, New England Patriots (at Houston Texans)

Newton has now strung together three straight solid outings, and although his performance last week — 16.82 fantasy points — won’t turn many heads, it wasn’t a horrible effort considering the weather conditions he was playing in. For Week 11, the elements won’t be an issue as the dual-threat QB will play indoors at NRG Stadium. When playing in a dome, Newton has a better completion percentage and a better QB rating than playing outdoors. He also has an impressive 30:13 TD-INT ratio in 17 indoor games. The recent emergence of Jakobi Meyers as the team’s No. 1 wide receiver has also aided this offense.

10. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (at New Orleans Saints)

11. Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Los Angeles Rams)

12. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (at Washington Football Team)

13. Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints (vs. Atlanta Falcons)

It was reported on Friday by Adam Schefter of ESPN that Hill will start for the Saints on Sunday as he took all of the starter’s reps at practice this week. Additionally, Dianna Russini stated that QB Jameis Winston will not be part of any QB packages during the game. Of course, while trying to be coy, head coach Sean Payton failed to officially name who will actually be starting under centre. I’m going to follow Schefter and Russini’s lead, and assume Hill is starting and will play. There’s not much data to analyze on the 30-year-old, as he has 18 total passing attempts in his career. Dating back to his collegiate career at Brigham Young University, Hill didn’t profile as a great passer. The one thing we do know about Hill is that he can run, which should make him fantasy relevant this weekend against Atlanta. The Falcons are allowing the most fantasy points per-game to passers this season. This may be an instance where Hill is actually a better fantasy QB than real-life QB. Given the uncertainty surrounding New Orleans’ QB situation, fantasy managers will have to play Hill understanding the risks.

14. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (at Denver Broncos)

15. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings (vs. Dallas Cowboys)

Efficient is the word I’ll use to describe Cousins over his past three games. It’s clear that Minnesota’s philosophy on offense is to run the ball with Dalvin Cook, but when the team has elected to throw, Cousins has been extremely effective. The veteran gunslinger is averaging 0.68 fantasy points per dropback, which is the fifth most in the NFL since Week 8. That puts him ahead of players like Josh Allen, Justin Herbert and Russell Wilson. The Vikings battle the Cowboys, who are allowing the 11th-most fantasy points per game to QBs this season. If you’re looking for a QB to add off the waiver wire, you could do worse than starting Cousins.

16. Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Kansas City Chiefs)

17. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans (at Baltimore Ravens)

18. Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions (at Carolina Panthers)

19. Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles (at Cleveland Browns)

20. Alex Smith, Washington Football Team (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)

21. Andy Dalton, Dallas Cowboys (at Minnesota Vikings)

22. Teddy Bridgewater, Carolina Panthers (vs. Detroit Lions)

Bridgewater suffered an MCL Sprain during the team’s blowout loss to the Buccaneers in Week 10. The QB, however, was able to get in some limited practice this week and there’s a chance he’s able to suit up and play this weekend. It’s fair to assume that even if he’s under centre, he won’t be anywhere close to fully healthy for the contest. If he’s not able to play, P.J. Walker or Will Grier will start in his place. Regardless, this is a situation that I’m avoiding entirely as the upside doesn’t seem great in starting a hampered Bridgewater.

23. Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)

24. Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

In Week 10, I lost any confidence I had left in Goff as a reliable fantasy football player. In the best matchup possible against a struggling Seahawks secondary, the former first overall pick managed to become the only QB this season to not score a touchdown in any fashion against Seattle. He threw for 302 yards, but that mark is actually the second fewest of any QB against the Seahawks this season. Additionally, Goff offers absolutely zero rushing upside as he’s only topped five rushing yards just three times this season. Against a Buccaneers defense allowing the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to QBs this season, he’s a hard pass in Week 11.

25. Philip Rivers, Indianapolis Colts (vs. Green Bay Packers)

26. Jake Luton, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers)

27. Joe Flacco, New York Jets (at Los Angeles Chargers)

28. Drew Lock, Denver Broncos (vs. Miami Dolphins)

RB

1. Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints (vs. Atlanta Falcons)

Despite missing practice on Thursday, Kamara was able to practice on Friday and was removed from New Orleans’ injury report. He’s the best RB option on the board for Week 11.

2. Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings (vs. Dallas Cowboys)

3. Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans (at Baltimore Ravens)

4. Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers (at Indianapolis Colts)

5. Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)

Let’s be clear: Chubb wronged many fantasy managers and bettors when he elected to run out of bounds at the one-yard line to end last week’s game against the Texans. Cleveland has been the league’s punching bag for years — it’s the last team that should be going easy on opponents. Anyways, his performance — 19 carries for 126 yards and a score — was stellar. His Week 11 opponent, the Eagles, are a tougher draw as they’ve allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing runners. Regardless, Chubb’s consistent volume and extreme talent make him a near-lock for a weekly top-10 finish.

6. Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles (at Cleveland Browns)

7. Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Kansas City Chiefs)

8. James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers)

9. James Conner, Pittsburgh Steelers (at Jacksonville Jaguars)

Since Week 8, Conner is averaging an abysmal 2.84 yards per carry. With weather impacting last week’s Bengals-Steelers game and Pittsburgh running away with the contest, Conner posted just 36 yards on 13 carries. His -1.71 rushing yards over expected per attempt was the second-worst number of all running backs in Week 10. In Week 11, he gets a pretty good get-right spot against the Jaguars, who are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to halfbacks this season. If he can’t take advantage of this matchup, major questions should be casted upon Conner’s hold on the team’s top spot.

10. Mike Davis, Carolina Panthers (vs. Detroit Lions)

11. Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)

12. Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)

13. Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys (at Minnesota Vikings)

14. Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals (at Washington Football Team)

RB Joe Mixon (foot) did not participate in Bengals practice all week meaning Bernard will be drawing his fourth straight start. In the three games he’s started in place of Mixon, Bernard is averaging 15.4 fantasy points per-game. Over its past two games, Washington has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to RBs.

15. Todd Gurley, Atlanta Falcons (at New Orleans Saints)

16. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs (at Las Vegas Raiders)

17. Damien Harris, New England Patriots (at Houston Texans)

If you’re a fan of old school, smashmouth football, Harris is the type of player you’ll enjoy watching. He’s a physical runner who is fifth in the entire NFL in rushing yards over expected per attempt, and he’s tied for the third best yards per carry mark in the entire NFL. He’s worthy of a start in Week 11 as he squares off against the Texans, who are allowing the highest yards per carry mark to running backs (5.53) of any team in the NFL. Maybe the most impressive part of Harris’ success this season is that he’s faced eight-plus defenders at the line of scrimmage on a league-high 43.53 percent of his plays this season. New England did activate RB Sony Michel off of injured reserve on Saturday, so he could cut into Harris’ workload a bit in this matchup.

18. Duke Johnson Jr., Houston Texans (vs. New England Patriots)

19. Adrian Peterson, Detroit Lions (at Carolina Panthers)

Rookie RB D’Andre Swift suffered a concussion this week, and will miss this Sunday’s game after having a breakout performance in Week 10. Peterson will likely handle the majority of work in his place. Peterson has been somewhat effective this season, averaging 3.8 yards per carry. The matchup is what makes the veteran RB a start this week, as he draws the Panthers. Carolina is surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points per-game to RBs this season.

20. Ronald Jones, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Los Angeles Rams)

21. Nyheim Hines, Indianapolis Colts (vs. Green Bay Packers)

I always like to follow teams for trends when they emerge from their bye weeks, and it’s been hard to ignore Hines. Since the Colts’ Week 7 bye, Hines has been the RB4 in all of fantasy football and his 78 offensive snaps top all Indianapolis running backs since Week 8. Playing with a QB like Philip Rivers, whose 7.5 average depth of target ranks 24th amongst passers, having Hines as a checkdown option could be vital to the Colts’ success. It’s a role that Austin Ekeler held when Rivers played with the Chargers, and he finished last season as RB6. Keep an eye on Hines — he could be a game-changer moving forward.

22. Kalen Ballage, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. New York Jets)

23. J.D. McKissic, Washington Football Team (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)

24. Kenyan Drake, Arizona Cardinals (at Seattle Seahawks) - Played on Thursday

25. Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Los Angeles Rams)

26. Salvon Ahmed, Miami Dolphins (at Denver Broncos)

27. Darrell Henderson, Los Angeles Rams (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

28. Carlos Hyde, Seattle Seahawks (vs. Arizona Cardinals) - Played on Thursday

29. Melvin Gordon, Denver Broncos (vs. Miami Dolphins)

30. Chase Edmonds, Arizona Cardinals (at Seattle Seahawks) - Played on Thursday

WR

1. Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs (at Las Vegas Raiders)

2. DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals (at Seattle Seahawks) - Played on Thursday

3. Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers (at Indianapolis Colts)

4. Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons (at New Orleans Saints)

5. Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints (vs. Atlanta Falcons)

Thomas fantasy managers, get ready: This is the week you get a performance you’ve been waiting for all season. In Week 11, Thomas and the Saints get a matchup with the Falcons, who are allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to WRs this season. Since returning from injury Thomas has commanded a robust 37.1 percent of the Saints’ total air yards. It seems pretty obvious now that Drew Brees was playing through an injury and wasn’t at full health. Whether the likely move to QB Taysom Hill is a plus or not remains to be seen.

6. Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. New York Jets)

7. Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)

8. D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks (vs. Arizona Cardinals)

9. Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings (vs. Dallas Cowboys)

10. Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks (vs. Arizona Cardinals)

11. Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers (at Jacksonville Jaguars)

12. A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans (at Baltimore Ravens)

13. Chase Claypool, Pittsburgh Steelers (at Jacksonville Jaguars)

14. Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons (at New Orleans Saints)

Ridley was removed from Atlanta’s final injury report, which should give fantasy managers confidence in starting him this week. He’s been one of the best draft values in fantasy football this season, far exceeding his 51.3 Yahoo Fantasy Football ADP. His 15.83 fantasy points per game ranks fifth among WRs this year, and his 82.1 receiving yards per game are the ninth-best total at the position. New Orleans is allowing 9.05 yards per target to WRs, the fifth most of any team.

15. Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings (vs. Dallas Cowboys)

16. Christian Kirk, Arizona Cardinals (at Seattle Seahawks) - Played on Thursday

Kirk is a top candidate of mine for regression over the rest of the season, and we saw some of that in Week 10 against the Bills. However, it’s hard to not jam Kirk into your lineup for Week 11 against the Seahawks. The last time Kirk and the Cardinals battled their divisional rival, he caught five of his eight targets for just 37 yards, but had a pair of scores. I expect Seattle to dedicate a lot of resources to stopping Hopkins, which should funnel a lot of volume to Kirk. Plain and simple, the Seahawks don’t have enough talent in the secondary to take away one top receiver, let alone two, so that’s why Kirk is a must-start this week. Seattle is allowing the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers by a pretty wide margin.

17. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh Steelers (at Jacksonville Jaguars)

18. D.J. Chark, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers)

Chark struggled in Week 10, but considering the weather conditions that both teams’ passing games were subject to, his 7.60 fantasy points weren’t horrible. This week he draws a Steelers defense that has surprisingly been below league average in fantasy points allowed per game to WRs. This year, Pittsburgh has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to WRs. At home in Jacksonville, the wind or weather aren’t projected to be a problem.

19. Will Fuller V, Houston Texans (vs. New England Patriots)

20. Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals (at Washington Football Team)

21. Robby Anderson, Carolina Panthers (vs. Detroit Lions)

22. Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals (at Washington Football Team)

Higgins is making an extremely strong case for best performance by a rookie wide receiver in 2020. Since Week 3, Higgins has scored less than 11.00 fantasy points just once. He has clearly established himself as the Bengals’ No.1 WR on the outside while veteran A.J. Green has struggled all season. Although I do think Justin Jefferson is pacing the 2020 draft class at this position, Higgins checks out as the fourth-highest graded rookie WR according to PFF. He does draw a tough matchup in Week 11, as the Football Team is allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to WRs this season.

23. Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

24. Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Los Angeles Rams)

25. Amari Cooper, Dallas Cowboys (at Minnesota Vikings)

The Cowboys were a team that desperately needed a bye week to sort things out after QB Dak Prescott’s injury in Week 5. I’m very interested in seeing how Dallas performs now that Andy Dalton is back as the starter. This will be a great test for the Cowboys’ passing attack, especially Cooper, as the unit gets to face the Vikings, who are tied for allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to WR this season. Despite the uncertainty surrounding this offense, Cooper has still managed to score 10.00 or more fantasy points in three of his last four games. If he can have a standout effort against the Vikings, fantasy managers should be hopeful about his prospects moving forward.

26. Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Los Angeles Rams)

27. DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins (at Denver Broncos)

28. Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos (vs. Miami Dolphins)

29. Jakobi Meyers, New England Patriots (at Houston Texans)

30. Marvin Jones Jr., Detroit Lions (at Carolina Panthers)

TE

1. Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs (at Las Vegas Raiders)

2. Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens (vs. Tennessee Titans)

The injury to TE Nick Boyle is a huge loss for the Ravens, as he’s PFF’s eighth-highest graded run-blocking tight end. His absence, however, leaves Andrews as the only true TE on the team’s roster, which should see his snap count spike. Thus far, Andrews has played on 64.96 percent of Baltimore’s offensive snaps, but that number should increase in the upcoming weeks. It’d be nice to see Andrews return to the end zone, as he hasn’t hit paydirt since Week 5.

3. T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions (at Carolina Panthers)

4. Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Kansas City Chiefs)

5. Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles (at Cleveland Browns)

6. Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Los Angeles Rams)

Gronkowski only saw three targets last week, but he was able to catch two for 51 yards and a touchdown. With WR Antonio Brown now in the picture, it’ll be much harder to predict Gronk’s target volume, but his prowess near the end zone (four touchdowns in his last five games) is enough to warrant starting him in fantasy football.

7. Hunter Henry, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. New York Jets)

8. Hayden Hurst, Atlanta Falcons (at New Orleans Saints)

9. Noah Fant, Denver Broncos (vs. Miami Dolphins)

Fant has been hampered by injuries all season, and on Wednesday, he missed practice with a new rib injury. He did manage to get in a limited practice on Thursday, however. Fant got off to a thunderous start to the year, recording 32.30 fantasy points across his first two games. Since then, he has failed to score double-digit fantasy points in any game. You’re likely starting him as there probably aren’t any better options available on the waiver wire.

10. Austin Hooper, Cleveland Browns (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)

11. Jonnu Smith, Tennessee Titans (at Baltimore Ravens)

12. Logan Thomas, Washington Football Team (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)

13. Eric Ebron, Pittsburgh Steelers (at Jacksonville Jaguars)

14. Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers (at Indianapolis Colts)

15. Jared Cook, New Orleans Saints (vs. Atlanta Falcons)

16. Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys (at Minnesota Vikings)

17. Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins (at Denver Broncos)

Gesicki and Hockenson were the two tight ends I was highest on in the preseason, and while Hockenson has been useful for fantasy managers, Gesicki just hasn’t been. In his third season in the league, he’s actually on pace to finish with fewer receptions and touchdowns than he did in Year 2.

18. Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings (vs. Dallas Cowboys)

19. Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

20. Trey Burton, Indianapolis Colts (vs. Green Bay Packers)

DEF

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (at Jacksonville Jaguars)

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Los Angeles Rams)

3. Los Angeles Chargers (vs. New York Jets)

4. Miami Dolphins (at Denver Broncos)

5. Cleveland Browns (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)

6. Indianapolis Colts (vs. Green Bay Packers)

7. Baltimore Ravens (vs. Tennessee Titans)

8. New Orleans Saints (vs. Atlanta Falcons)

9. Kansas City Chiefs (at Las Vegas Raiders)

10. New England Patriots (at Houston Texans)

11. Philadelphia Eagles (at Cleveland Browns)

12. Los Angeles Rams (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

13. Minnesota Vikings (vs. Dallas Cowboys)

14. Washington Football Team (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)

15. Cincinnati Bengals (at Washington Football Team)

16. Denver Broncos (vs. Miami Dolphins)

17. Detroit Lions (at Carolina Panthers)

18. Carolina Panthers (vs. Detroit Lions)

19. Tennessee Titans (at Baltimore Ravens)

20. Green Bay Packers (at Indianapolis Colts)

K

1. Justin Tucker, Baltimore Ravens (vs. Tennessee Titans)

2. Younghoe Koo, Atlanta Falcons (at New Orleans Saints)

3. Harrison Butker, Kansas City Chiefs (at Las Vegas Raiders)

4. Rodrigo Blankenship. Indianapolis Colts (vs. Green Bay Packers)

5. Wil Lutz, New Orleans Saints (vs. Atlanta Falcons)

6. Jason Sanders, Miami Dolphins (at Denver Broncos)

7. Zane Gonzalez, Arizona Cardinals (at Seattle Seahawks) - Played on Thursday

8. Michael Badgley, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. New York Jets)

9. Chris Boswell, Pittsburgh Steelers (at Jacksonville Jaguars)

10. Jason Myers, Seattle Seahawks (vs. Arizona Cardinals) - Played on Thursday

11. Daniel Carlson, Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Kansas City Chiefs)

12. Matt Prater, Detroit Lions (at Carolina Panthers)

13. Brandon McManus, Denver Broncos (vs. Miami Dolphins)

14. Randy Bullock, Cincinnati Bengals (at Washington Football Team)

15. Greg Zuerlein, Dallas Cowboys (at Minnesota Vikings)

16. Ryan Succop, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Los Angeles Rams)

17. Dan Bailey, Minnesota Vikings (vs. Dallas Cowboys)

18. Nick Folk, New England Patriots (at Houston Texans)

19. Joey Slye, Carolina Panthers (vs. Detroit Lions)

20. Mason Crosby, Green Bay Packers (at Indianapolis Colts)

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