Week 10 Preview: LeGarrette Blount major threat in Seahawks-Patriots tilt

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Let’s preview this week’s NFL action by first focusing on the games that are expected to produce the most real and fantasy points before I go around the league to highlight the key players we should be watching and why. An important note every week: check the player’s status. There is so much injury uncertainty and Friday’s practice, which occurs after this is posted, is key.

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Cowboys at Steelers (O/U 50): It’s unclear the extent to which Ben Roethlisberger ($35) was hampered by injury last week, but he’s not on the injury report. And he’s at home, where he’s been outstanding since the start of last season. Roethlisberger has been consistently awful on the road. So we should probably not concern ourselves with last week’s stinker in Baltimore, salvaged in garbage time (proving, perhaps, that he was not that hurt). Le’Veon Bell ($35) has not scored a TD in his five games this year, which is remarkable. That’s a fluke though — Bell has no goal-line carries (1-to-3 yards from paydirt) this year and the Steelers as a team have one all year. The next lowest is Houston with three. NO, DEN, SD have 13 each. This is a big deal because the conversion rate on these carries is 53%, meaning that each one of them has an expected value of 3.18 fantasy points (not counting the yards). The Cowboys do not reliably get Dez Bryant ($19) involved and perhaps that makes Dak Prescott ($33) more passer-rating friendly. But it can’t help the team. And it sure doesn’t help Bryant’s fantasy owners, who have to play him in weekly. This DFS price is so low though. On our Breakfast Table Podcast this week, Scott Pianowski and I debated whether Ezekiel Elliott ($39) could win the MVP should Matt Ryan ($38) falter. He looks bettable for an all-time rookie RB type of season, along the lines of 1983 Eric Dickerson.

[Week 10 rankings: Overall | FLEX | QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF | K]

Falcons at Eagles (O/U 50): Again, there is no one playable in the entire Eagles offense, not in daily. In annual, Jordan Matthews ($26) is a WR3. Ryan is a good play no matter what, so I would not be scared by the Eagles defense, which did allow four TD passes last week. Check the status of Tevin Coleman for sure, not so much to play him given him hamstring woes, but to see how fervently you should back Devonta Freeman ($28). Julio Jones’ ($36) targets are way down (9 per game versus about 13 per game last year). Predictably, his efficiency is up (TDs and yards per target). But we’d always trade volume for efficiency in PPR.

Seahawks at Patriots (O/U 49): Man, that LeGarrette Blount ($22) projection is low and seems to vary greatly with his DFS price. He’s on pace for 1,200 yards and 18 TDs and that’s with Tom Brady missing half of the season to date. The Seahawks aren’t going to keep New England out of the end zone and Blount is the most likely Patriot to score against any opponent. No way do I ever sit a goal-line back in the best offense in football. People ask me all the time if they should trade WRs and RBs for a QB like Tom Brady ($39) and the answer is always no. Never trade for a QB in a one-QB format. Seattle’s running woes are not about their running backs as much as they are about Russell Wilson ($29), I noted this week at The Wall Street Journal. Wilson has to prove he can generate value with his legs at this point but is sixth in the league in yards per attempt so is a streamable QB option, especially this week.

Notebook

— Again, given Brock Osweiler’s awfulness, bet the running back, Lamar Miller ($25), ahead of wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins ($20). Miller is not a good bet — about a quarter of running backs overcome similarly terrible QB play to post productive fantasy seasons. But no WR has — they’re capped at six TD catches, exactly Hopkins’ pace along with 868 yards.

— The good news is that Cam Newton ($35) has run seven times in each of the last two weeks. The bad news is last week, it was for 16 yards. Without the running, Newton, like Wilson, is only streamable. But this really boosts Jonathan Stewart ($25) to top 10 RB status.

— Todd Gurley ($21) is in Trent Richardson land. His longest carry is 18 yards. There’s a good chance now, at 3.1 per carry, that he’s just not good.

— Drew Brees ($36) is an automatic play this week against a beaten up Broncos secondary and especially at home. Scott Pianowski said Mike Thomas ($20) is a difference maker now at WR.

— I’m not worried about Kirk Cousins ($28) against the Vikings defense either. It’s not ideal. But Cousins has 22 touchdowns and a 106 passer rating in 12 home starts since 2015 (and four rushing TDs), if you’re looking for a push. But Cousins is on pace for 640 attempts and about 5,000 passing yards.

— Stefon Diggs ($25) has 27 targets the last two games and could be Julio Jones 2015 going forward, with the disappointing TD rate, too.

— Ty Montgomery ($22) is actually running pretty well and qualifies at running back on Yahoo in annual, but not yet in daily. Mike McCarthy said this week he considers Montgomery a three-down back. If so, he’s a throwback to long-ago era where players like Hall of Famers Lenny Moore and Bobby Mitchell were slash RB/WRs.

— If Doug Martin ($18) is active this week, just play him. I put zero stock in Chicago’s high ranking in limiting fantasy points to running backs.

— Melvin Gordon ($34) has a league-high 13 carries within three yards of the goal-line. No team has more. The Steelers, again, have one. So this is a total fluke. Gordon is running much better though and that is not a fluke.

— Scott and I both think David Johnson ($41) will have 100 rushing yards this week by halftime.