What to watch: Week 4 college football viewing guide, picks against the spread

Like we’ve done in years past, every Friday throughout the season we’ll highlight the five best games of the coming weekend. This year, we’ll pick those games against the spread, plus some other matchups that caught our eye from a betting perspective.

We’re already a quarter of the way through the college football season.

Week 4 has only two games between ranked teams, and one involves Alabama as nearly a four-touchdown favorite. That doesn’t seem like the most promising slate, but with nine ranked teams going on the road to face unranked foes, there is a ton of potential for upsets. And upsets, as Wisconsin showed last week, can come from anywhere and drastically alter the course of the season.

Let’s go.

(Games on Saturday unless otherwise noted, all times ET)

5. No. 14 Mississippi State (3-0) at Kentucky (3-0)

Time: 7 p.m. | TV: ESPN | Line: Mississippi State -9.5

So far, so good for Mississippi State under Joe Moorhead. The Bulldogs are off to a 3-0 start, including an impressive road win over Kansas State. Saturday night’s game in Lexington will be another road test for the Bulldogs. It’s also Moorhead’s SEC debut. He has his offense performing at a high level with Nick Fitzgerald at quarterback and Kylin Hill averaging 9.2 yards per carry at running back.

On the other side, Kentucky has a talented running back, too. Benny Snell (375 yards, 3 TDs) is one of the most underrated players in the country. Snell, along with dual-threat quarterback Terry Wilson, will have to contend with the stout defensive line of MSU, led by Jeffery Simmons and Montez Sweat. Kentucky, with that elusive win over Florida already under its belt, has the chance to start 4-0 for the first time under Mark Stoops. An upset win over MSU would be a serious statement for the Wildcats.

Picks: Sam Cooper: MSU -9.5, Nick Bromberg: MSU -9.5

4. No. 22 Texas A&M (2-1) at No. 1 Alabama (3-0)

Time: 3:30 p.m. | TV: CBS | Line: Alabama -26

With Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback, Alabama has looked like far and away the best team in the country through three weeks. After so many years of dominance, it’s hard to be surprised or even impressed by an Alabama team. But last week’s 62-7 beatdown of Ole Miss in Oxford was almost surreal to watch. Sure, Ole Miss is no juggernaut, but the Bama offense looked completely unstoppable.

Perhaps Texas A&M can make the Tide look mortal. The Aggies, in the first year of the Jimbo Fisher era, have been impressive. With QB Kellen Mond and RB Trayveon Williams leading the way, A&M took Clemson to the brink of an upset in Week 2. But that was in front of the 12th Man at Kyle Field. Saturday’s trip to Tuscaloosa is the first road game of the year for the Aggies and Fisher’s SEC debut (as a head coach, at least).

Picks: Sam: A&M +26, Nick: Alabama -26

3. No. 18 Wisconsin (2-1) at Iowa (3-0)

Time: 8:30 p.m. | TV: FOX | Line: Wisconsin -3

Wisconsin was the biggest upset victim of the season so far when it lost to BYU at home last week. BYU is much-improved, no doubt, but this was a lifeless performance by the Badgers — a team many expected to contend for a spot in the College Football Playoff. If Wisconsin even wants to sniff CFP contention, it needs to win out, and that starts with a trip to Iowa City, one of the toughest places to play in the Big Ten.

Iowa has given up 24 points — total — in wins over Northern Illinois, Iowa State and Northern Iowa. ISU’s offense looked pretty good against Oklahoma last week, so that might be an indication that the Hawkeyes boast a pretty great defense. Against the Hawkeyes, ISU mustered only 188 yards, including just 44 yards on 17 carries from David Montgomery. Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor gashed Iowa for 157 yards in last year’s 38-14 win in Madison. That can’t happen again if Iowa wants to pull off the upset and be a legitimate threat to win the Big Ten West.

Picks: Sam: Wisconsin -3, Nick: Wisconsin -3

2. No. 17 TCU (2-1) at Texas (2-1)

Time: 4:30 p.m. | TV: FOX | Line: TCU -3

TCU carried a 21-13 lead midway through the third quarter against Ohio State last week before a wacky four-minute span swung the game in Ohio State’s direction, a game the Buckeyes eventually won 40-28. Despite the loss, the Horned Frogs had an impressive showing, showcasing dynamic team speed on both sides of the ball. That speed, from the likes of Shawn Robinson, Darius Anderson and Jalen Reagor, will be a big test for the Texas defense.

Texas showed noticeable improvement in last week’s 37-14 home win over No. 22 USC. Texas trailed for much of the first half but led 16-14 going into the break. From there, the Longhorns controlled things and turned a close game into a blowout by blocking a field goal and returning it for a touchdown in the third. To beat TCU, the offense needs to take another step forward, especially with the run game. The Longhorns have lost their last four against Gary Patterson’s program.

Picks: Sam: TCU -3, Nick: TCU -3

1. No. 7 Stanford (3-0) at No. 20 Oregon (3-0)

Time: 8 p.m. | TV: ABC | Line: Stanford -2

After three tuneups, we’ll get a chance to see what Oregon is really made of on Saturday night. It’s been a while since Oregon has played a marquee game at Autzen Stadium and the Ducks have a great opportunity to gain an early edge in the Pac-12 North if they can take care of Stanford. Oregon has won nine of its last 11 games started by Justin Herbert, who already has 12 touchdown passes on the year. The Stanford defense will be much tougher than any unit he has faced so far this year.

Herbert was injured when Stanford crushed the Ducks 49-7 last fall. In that win, eventual Heisman runner-up Bryce Love had 147 yards and two scores on 17 carries. Love scuffled in Week 1 but had 136 yards and a score in the Week 2 win over USC. However, an undisclosed injury kept him out last week vs. UC Davis, but it was likely a precaution more than anything. He should be ready to go against the Ducks on Saturday. Oregon has big-play wideout JJ Arcega-Whiteside to deal with, too. He is averaging 24.9 yards per catch and already has five touchdowns on the year.

Picks: Sam: Oregon +2, Nick: Stanford -2

Week 3’s best bets

Nick Bromberg (Last week: 1-2, Overall: 5-4)

No. 2 Georgia (-15) at Missouri: Oh why the heck not. This stretch of season is a huge test for Missouri QB Drew Lock’s draft hopes. The Tigers play Georgia, South Carolina and Alabama over the next four weeks and a win on Saturday puts the SEC East in play. I have little confidence that Missouri will pull the upset, but I think it keeps it close enough to cover a more than two-TD spread. Pick: Missouri (+15)

Arizona (-7) at Oregon State: If the Wildcats can’t excel at Oregon State, where else will they? It’s been a bad start to the season for Kevin Sumlin’s squad, though the second half against FCS school Southern Utah might have been a turning point last week. Oregon State came back and almost won against Nevada on the road in Week 3. Let’s see what Arizona can do. Pick: Arizona (-7)

Michigan State (-5) at Indiana: Indiana has looked pretty good so far this season. But the Hoosiers are getting a Michigan State team coming off a bad road loss that has had an extra week to prepare for the game. That doesn’t feel like a good recipe. Michigan State barely won in Week 1 but this should be the game where the Spartans win by 10 or so. Pick: Michigan State (-5)

Sam Cooper (Last week: 2-1, Overall: 5-4)

Louisville at Virginia (-5): The Louisville offense has struggled so far this year and needed a late rally just to beat Western Kentucky at home last week. That rally was sparked by a change at quarterback. Malik Cunningham came in for Jawon Pass and led the team to a 20-17 win after trailing 14-0. Cunningham, who also outperformed Pass in Week 2, will get the start Saturday at UVA. This feels like the week the Cardinals get things going. Pick: Louisville +5

South Carolina (-2) at Vanderbilt: Vanderbilt had plenty of chances to pull out an upset last week against a physical Notre Dame team, but just couldn’t do quite enough offensively. South Carolina got an unexpected week off because of Hurricane Florence. The Gamecocks have to be just itching to get back on the field after getting blown out by Georgia in Week 2. Pick: South Carolina -2

Northern Illinois at Florida State (-10.5): This line almost feels too good to be true. But that’s how I felt last week ahead of the FSU-Syracuse game, too, so I stayed away from fading the Seminoles. That proved to be overthinking things. FSU has been flat-out terrible on offense through three weeks, and NIU has a really strong defense. FSU will probably get the win, but won’t have the firepower to cover the spread. Pick: Northern Illinois +10.5

For Pat Forde and Pete Thamel’s Week 4 picks, check out Race for the Case: