Wallet 2016: Doug Baldwin versus the Regression Police

One of the biggest draft weekends is upon us. Let’s get down to brass tacks. Here’s a list of the main players in my fantasy portfolio to this point, a chunk of players who will define the success of my season, for good or for bad. (If you want the players I’m not drafting, that list is over here.)

And for what it’s worth, I’ve never drafted and pre-drafted as often as I have this summer. I’ve put in the reps. We’ll see where it takes us.

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• Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks: It’s perfectly reasonable to use the R Word — Regression — when discussing Baldwin. Just make sure you start the conversation there, you don’t end it there.

Baldwin was the No. 2 fantasy receiver in the second half of 2015, a torrid two months (47-724-12). You’ll find no one who expects Baldwin to approach those numbers again. You don’t have to caution anyone about chasing last year’s stats, no one’s doing that.

But what will Baldwin regress to? Should we be more optimistic or pessimistic on him entering 2016?

I see all sorts of positives here. Baldwin got paid in the offseason; the Seahawks are committed to him as their No. 1 downfield option. He’s never going to be heavily peppered with targets, but every pass he sees comes from Russell Wilson, an elite quarterback. Seattle’s offense had a different shape to it down the stretch last year, a wildly-successful approach that will probably be replicated. And while Baldwin’s TD count isn’t something to go after, last year’s catch-and-yardage volume seems attainable to me.

Baldwin’s work ethic deserves some mention — he’s one of those players who desperately wants to be great. He’s got some Steve Smith in him, some Anquan Boldin; and let’s not kid ourselves, not everyone in the league approaches their craft this seriously. I’m taking Baldwin in the fourth round in most formats, an easy and comfortable slot. I see floor and upside here.

Fantasy Theme: Fade the Regression Police (sometimes)

• A.J. Green, WR, Bengals: Green was already on everyone’s radar, for the lovely fantasy floor he provides (WR14, WR4, WR5, WR23, WR8). But now the Bengals need to replace a boatload of targets — Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones are gone, and Tyler Eifert is in limbo. Green averages 141 targets a year, but you get the idea he’s going far past that number in 2016 (stork notwithstanding).

Fantasy Themes: Increased opportunity; high floor meets high upside

• Brandin Cooks, WR, Saints: A common draft fork is Cooks vs. Mike Evans, a couple of dynamic third-year receivers. Cooks gets the check mark because he’s tied to a much better quarterback and offense. It doesn’t hurt that the Saints play indoors, and might have a shoddy defense again.

Fantasy Theme: When receivers are tied, let the quarterback break the tie

• Philip Rivers (and friends), QB, Chargers: Rivers was the No. 2 fantasy QB for two months last year, then Keenan Allen got hurt and things fell apart. A dream setup is in place for 2016: sketchy defense; sketchy running game; all sorts of weapons (Allen, Antonio Gates, even a reunion between Rivers and OC Ken Whisenhunt). You can get a solid QB value almost any time you want it in 2016; when I dip into the middle-round market, Rivers is my preference. I’m also significantly invested in Allen (a PPR god) and Gates.

Fantasy Themes: Boring but reliable veteran; go where the carnival is

• Jeremy Hill, RB, Bengals: Although Hill’s efficiency fell through the floor last year — a fumbling problem didn’t help — he still led the NFL in rushing touchdowns, cushioning his fantasy tumble (RB13). And bless Hill for recognizing the problems in his game; he’s come to camp a more dedicated and prepared player this year. Don’t sweat the timeshare in the Cincinnati backfield; Hill and Gio Bernard (who I also have multiple shares of) are good at different things, and there isn’t a notable third option to get in the way.

Fantasy Theme: Not all time-shares are killers

• Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns, WR, Jaguars: No matter what you think of Blake Bortles, I still want a healthy share of his receivers. Robinson has proven to be a bankable stud, dating back to his Penn State days — shining in spite of spotty quarterback play. Not everyone is sold on Robinson as a sure first-round fantasy pick, but he’s become my go-to in the second half of the first round, assuming Green is gone.

As for Hurns, if he merely comes in somewhere between his rookie season and last year’s breakout, you’ll at least get your investment back, perhaps some profit. I don’t see great receivers after the Allens, either; Jacksonville has a somewhat narrow usage tree, always a fun fantasy hack.

Fantasy Themes: Fade the regression police; invest in a narrow tree

• Isaiah Crowell, RB, Browns: Hue Jackson might have another Hill-Bernard on his hands with Crowell (the banger) and Duke Johnson (the satellite player). Okay, it might be a discount rack Hill-Bernard imitation, but Crowell is for the lion’s share of carries here. The biggest reason I have so many Crowell shares — there’s nothing particularly exciting to his game. I’ve been gobbling up a boring value in the double-digit rounds.

Fantasy Theme: A solid-floor, low-ceiling player can make sense at the right price

Quick Hitters: When I get the No. 1 pick, I take Antonio Brown. No questions asked. When I get the No. 2 or No. 3 pick, I lean Odell Beckham over Julio Jones — more touchdown upside — but I’m fine with either . . . My Kamar Aiken stance hasn’t changed from a few weeks back, when this propaganda piece ran . . . Baltimore’s backfield is awfully crowded — you get the idea a big name will be cut between now and the opener — but Javorius Allen has youth and pass-catching ability on his side . . . Bilal Powell and Charles Sims are lottery tickets who might be immediately playable while we’re dreaming of a bigger role down the line . . . When I’m chasing a fantasy defense, the first thing I look for is a team in a winning situation. Week-to-week, let the point spread be your guide (and roll with favorites). Preseason, the over/under market is a good meter to follow. They’re unlikely to be the absolute best fantasy defenses, but in my Best Ball leagues, I have a number of Cincinnati, Green Bay, Pittsburgh and New England shares. They should be playing with leverage more often than not.

I don’t want to see Jamaal Charles get hurt, but I can’t overlook the medical file. Spencer Ware is a preferred lottery ticket of mine . . . I’d say Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson are close to even money to outscore Cam Newton, but they come so much cheaper. I grabbed a few Luck and Wilson shares during the MFL season (where I drafted 55 times). Mind you, you can play this same game against any tier of quarterbacks — there’s always someone cheaper, always a value play later on. Rivers, Eli Manning, and Kirk Cousins are my favorite middle-round guys, and I have some Joe Flacco and Marcus Mariota interests . . . Has anyone ever regretted an Eric Decker investment? He always seems to be a good value . . . Jonathan Stewart is an Ibanez All-Star, the boring vet again . . . The Niners might be a mess, but someone has 70-80 catches coming. Is it Bruce Ellington? His abilities might best line up with Blaine Gabbert . . . In full PPR, I’m fine with Jarvis Landry in the third round. His reception floor is extremely high, and his touchdown count last year has to be a little bad luck given how much he saw the ball. The same general theme applies to Gio Bernard, a good target for the Zero-RB crowd (count me in). Bernard’s efficiency was fine last year, and I dare him to only score two touchdowns this time around. He had 15 in the two previous seasons. Think of it like a batter’s hit rate, a low BABIP unlikely to repeat. It’s not all luck, but some of it comes down to chance.