Russian bloggers fill in counteroffensive blanks as Kyiv’s troops probe frontline

Ukraine may not have formally declared its counteroffensive has begun, but the attacks being reported on Russian lines overnight and into Monday morning look like the first steps of what is likely to be a tough military campaign.

Kyiv is of course mindful of the need for surprise, releasing a video on Sunday of its soldiers holding fingers to their lips, but the volume of reports from the Russian side tells its own story, with Moscow’s Ministry of Defence reporting a two-brigade assault on the Donetsk end of the southern front.

The Kremlin was quick to declare the attack repulsed, but several in Russia’s community of ultra-nationalist military bloggers were more sceptical. Relying on their own sources, they suggested Ukraine had made some initial gains.

Igor Girkin, perhaps the best known, said the Russian MoD’s statements were “not quite true”, that “the enemy managed to cut into our position”, and argued that it looked likely the counteroffensive had finally begun.

War Gonzo, run by the war correspondent Semyon Pegov, was more specific. The blog suggested Ukraine had penetrated two kilometres into Russian-held positions before Novodonetske, between Velyka Novosilka and Vuhledar. Kyiv’s forces were using western mechanised vehicles to bring up reserves, the blog added.

Individual reports should be viewed sceptically but taken together they can build up a picture. What is clear is that there is not an all-out assault, but also that the level of forces being committed are non-trivial. These are not exploratory raids, but most likely probing attacks, searching for local Russian weaknesses.

If the Russian Ministry of Defence is correct, and Ukraine has attacked with two brigades, that amounts to a force of several thousand troops. Interestingly, neither of the attacking units named by the ministry, the 23rd and 31st mechanised, are listed as among the 12 western-equipped units in the leaked Pentagon Papers.

Compared with farther west, south of Zaporizhzhia, the Novodonetske part of the southern front appears less fortified in the rear, although the terrain is largely open fields, punctuated by tree lines, where troops will be dug in. A very successful attack could be a pathway to cutting the Crimean land bridge close to Mariupol, although, for the moment, that is a long way off.

There is also evidence of Ukraine undertaking attacks elsewhere on the 1,000km front. The leader of the Wagner mercenary forces, Yevgeny Prigozhin, complained that Russian troops had fled from part of Berkhivka, a village north of the recently taken Bakhmut, on the eastern front, suggesting that exploratory attacks may not only be taking place in the south.

It is possible, too, that Ukraine does not even know where it wants to place its key counter-attack forces, until a point of weakness is found. The aim of the initial attacks would be to secure a breakthrough that a subsequent force, held in reserve, can exploit to then surround the defenders.

This is manoeuvre warfare, more reminiscent of the second world war rather than the grim trench and building-to-building fighting that has dominated the campaign so far. But defending is always easier, and the Ukrainian attackers will need three-to-one battlefield superiority or more to be confident of success.

It is obvious how much is at stake for Ukraine, politically and emotionally. But in Kyiv, the anxiety runs deeper than that. “I know that when the counter-offensive starts, a lot of people I know will die,” a politician told the Guardian on Sunday. However necessary Ukraine believes this moment is, so much ahead is uncertain.