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Coronavirus R rate could be higher than 1 in every region of England

Emily Cleary
·3 min read
Local residents and visitors, some wearing face coverings, shop in Peascod Street on 27th August 2020 in Windsor, United Kingdom. Tessa Lindfield, the Director of Public Health for Berkshire, has urged residents of the Royal Borough of Windsor and Maidenhead to follow social distancing guidelines following a significant rise in the number of positive COVID-19 tests there over the past week. (photo by Mark Kerrison/In Pictures via Getty Images)
Some shoppers in Windsor wear face coverings, but many don't, despite the director of public health for Berkshire urging residents to follow social distancing guidelines following a significant rise in the number of positive COVID-19 tests in the past week. (Mark Kerrison/In Pictures via Getty Images)

The coronavirus R rate of infection could be higher than 1 in every region of England, the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) has warned.

The growth rate of coronavirus transmission, which reflects how quickly the number of infections is changing day by day, has increased slightly across the UK since last week.

The latest growth rate for the whole of the UK is between -2% and +1% which means the number of new infections is somewhere between shrinking by 2% and growing by 1% every day. This is a slight increase from between -3% to +1% last week.

All regions in England now have an R rate range that reaches above 1 (gov.uk)
All regions in England now have an R rate range that reaches 1 or above (gov.uk)

Thursday saw England record the highest number of new COVID-19 infections since 18 June, with the number of new cases rising to 1,522 in 24 hours - up from 1,048 on Wednesday.

However, this is much lower than the 5,000 new cases a day in April, at the peak of the epidemic, and the Office for National Statistics said that rates are on the whole “levelling off”.

The organisation said there is not yet enough evidence to say there has been a fall in new infections in the most recent week and therefore “we continue to report that the incidence rate for England remains unchanged”.

The R number represents the number of people each COVID-19 positive person goes on to infect.

In England, the R is between is between 0.9 and 1.1, the same as last week, but with all areas now a range that could be 1 or above.

As a result, SAGE does not have confidence that R is currently below 1 in England.

As numbers of Covid-19 cases in Birmingham have increased in recent weeks, and with the city added as an 'area of enhanced support' on the UK's coronavirus watchlist of critical areas which are under threat of a local lockdown, people interact beneath a new public health advice advertising campaign featuring Bully the Bull Ring bull wearing a face mask with the slogan 'It's NO bull. Keep Brum safe' near to the iconic Rotunda building in the city centre on 24th August 2020 in London, United Kingdom. With other areas in the Midlands under localised lockdown, people and businesses are being urged to follow the Coronavirus advice for workplace and family life help reduce the risk. (photo by Mike Kemp/In PIctures via Getty Images)
As numbers of COVID-19 cases in Birmingham increases, a public health advice campaign featuring Bully the Bull Ring bull wearing a face mask has been launched to try and control the rate of infections (Mike Kemp/In PIctures via Getty Images)

Recent changes in transmission are not yet fully reflected in the estimates because the data used to calculate R and growth rate reflect the situation from a few weeks ago.

The figures, published each Friday on the gov.uk website, are estimates and there is a high degree of uncertainty with them, experts say.

A time delay between initial infection and the need for hospital care usually means it may take between two to three weeks for changes in the spread of COVID-19 to be reflected in the estimates.

The news comes as schools in England prepare to reopen after the summer holidays. Chief Medical Officer for England Professor Chris Whitty said this week that missing school could be worse than catching coronavirus for children.

However, experts have warned that while reopening schools has not been usually followed by a surge in COVID-19 transmission, it could mean the reproduction rate remains above one.

LONDON, ENGLAND - AUGUST 27: Visitors wearing face masks walk through the Egyptian exhibit at the British Museum on August 27, 2020 in London, England. The British Museum has reopened to the public after being closed for 163 days due to Covid-19 restrictions and lockdown. Many other museums have already reopened in the United Kingdom with safety precautions in place to help prevent the spread of Covid-19. (Photo by Chris J Ratcliffe/Getty Images)
The British Museum has reopened to the public after being closed for 163 days due to COVID-19 restrictions and lockdown, with strict safety measures in place to help prevent another rise in infections. (Chris J Ratcliffe/Getty Images)

Parts of the north of England are subject to local lockdowns, and areas including Birmingham and Slough were last week added to the government lockdown “watch list” after reporting rises in numbers of coronavirus infections.

Museums, bowling alleys and soft play centres have all reopened to the public, but with strict social distancing measures in place to try and prevent further rises in infection.

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