UFC Tampa predictions, odds, full card picks: Is Colby Covington still an elite welterweight?

UFC Tampa sends us into 2025 on Saturday night as the final event of 2024's calendar year for the MMA leader. After another year loaded with wild and chaotic moments, welterweights Colby Covington and Joaquin Buckley look to deliver one final masterpiece in the main event.

A one-time interim titleholder, Covington returns two days short of a one-year absence after last competing in December 2023. On the other hand, Buckley has been a breakout star of 2024, going 3-0 and extending his current win streak to five. One more win over Covington could be the cherry atop the year-end sundae that puts Buckley at the forefront of title contender talks in the new year.

Who comes out on top? Let's take a look.

Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.

170 pounds: Colby Covington (+220) vs. Joaquin Buckley (-275)

This is the last hurrah for Covington.

The 36-year-old welterweight turns 37 in February and has been remarkably inactive in recent years. Against Buckley, Covington somehow faces his first non-champion opponent to be coming off a win since "Chaos" claimed interim gold against Rafael dos Anjos in 2018. He's 2-3 over his past five with losses to Kamaru Usman and Leon Edwards, the latter of which was his most recent UFC appearance.

UFC 296 was arguably the worst performance of Covington's career. His usual high pace and volume striking/takedown style was largely absent until the final round, though he claims to have broken his foot in the early moments by kicking the elbow of Edwards. At his best, that's what Covington is — a weaponized cardio machine with nonstop, in-your-face-wrestling.

We've seen the 30-year-old Buckley bested or outwrestled by worse wrestlers than the aging Covington. He's going to get taken down in the fight, possibly multiple times. The problem for Covington is his lack of finishing ability. A rib injury suffered by an end-of-career Tyron Woodley is the California native's lone stoppage win since his 2016 knockout of Max Griffin.

Buckley can afford to drop a round or two to Covington because he packs cannonballs in his gloves. As seen in his big knockout of Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson this past October, Buckley only needs one shot — no matter how poorly the fight plays out for him before that.

Covington has been rocked before and has declined in performance in recent years. This matchup has all the makings of a rough result for the three-time title challenger.

Buckley wins his sixth straight with his most important knockout yet.

Pick: Buckley

145 pounds: Cub Swanson (+130) vs. Billy Quarantillo (-160)

Cub Swanson still has violence to deliver.

The WEC OG notches fight No. 44 of his thrilling career when he collides with Billy Quarantillo. Swanson, 41, is clearly in the twilight of his MMA run, having returned to featherweight two fights ago after a stint at bantamweight. Despite his age, Swanson has seemingly caught a second wind, picking up a strong recent win over Hakeem Dawodu before losing a controversial split decision to fellow veteran Andre Fili.

Swanson is a solid and powerful boxer who mixes in his kicks brutally when comfortable. Quarantillo will be happy to engage in a potential war, but may also attempt to take the action to the mat if needed.

Quarantillo, 36, isn't in a spring chicken either, but he carries less wear and tear and can put anyone's lights out, both with punches and powerful knees. Unfortunately for the legendary featherweight, Quarantillo's versatile offense will be too much for Swanson to handle en route to a late TKO loss.

Pick: Quarantillo

125 pounds: Manel Kape (-375) vs. Bruno Gustavo da Silva (+290)

Manel Kape's UFC career has been such a bizarre ride.

I had extremely high hopes for the former RIZIN bantamweight champion when he signed in 2021 off a win over Kai Asakura. After a hesitant UFC debut against the now-flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja, "Starboy" never quite returned to that same confidence level we saw from him in Japan.

Nonetheless, Kape is still one of the best flyweights in the world and matchmaking him against Bruno Gustavo da Silva is admittedly odd considering their rankings. However, Silva has won four in a row by finish — three knockouts, one submission — since losing three straight to start his UFC run.

Kape, 31, is simply the more seasoned and talented competitor overall. A sharp and patient striker when necessary, Kape has explosive punches and takedowns that will give Silva problems.

Silva, 34, will have to land first, but Kape won't give him the chance. A rebound win looms for the former RIZIN champion after his controversial decision loss to Muhammad Mokaev this past July.

Pick: Kape

205 pounds: Vitor Petrino (-300) vs. Dustin Jacoby (+240)

Dustin Jacoby is fighting for his career this weekend.

Once a feel-good story of resurgence, the 36-year-old Jacoby appears to be reaching his limit after losing four of his past five UFC fights. The last time we saw the former GLORY Kickboxing standout, he was melted in two minutes by Dominick Reyes this past June.

Vitor Petrino also targets a rebound with this matchup. After Anthony Smith dealt the Brazilian prospect loss No. 1 of his 12-fight career at UFC 301 in May, he's been given a favorable matchup at UFC Tampa.

Petrino, 27, is more than content to throw hands with opponents, scoring knockouts in seven of his 11 wins. Jacoby, 36, is the superior and more technical striker with his strong kickboxing background; the problem here is his chin and fading defense.

Pick: Petrino

135 pounds: Adrian Yanez (+175) vs. Daniel Marcos (-210)

Bantamweight bangers rarely let us down. Adrian Yanez vs. Daniel Marcos is your frontrunner for the Fight of the Night.

Marcos is a talented prospect out of Peru who's looking to make a big impression by taking out the ever-talented Yanez and going 17-0. He was a champion in a regional fight promotion in his home country and successfully defended his title a whopping six times before his arrival through UFC's Contender Series.

In other words, the dude has been unstoppable.

Ask his UFC debut opponent Saimon Oliveira, who crumbled at the heavy hands and knees of Marcos in Round 2. A punishing striker throughout his career, when Marcos smells blood, combos and flurries are in your immediate future.

Yanez, 31, has long been touted as one of the best up-and-coming boxers in UFC. He reminded the world of his capabilities his last time out, scoring a vintage knockout of Vinicius Salvador in Round 1.

Momentum is a fighter's best friend and both these guys have it. Marcos may have more tools in his toolbox, but Yanez is just clean with his punched and you're in trouble when he connects. It's a coin flip for me. I'm sticking with the veteran. Yanez has fought the better competition and plays spoiler.

Pick: Yanez

205 pounds: Navajo Stirling (-700) vs. Tuco Tokkos (+500)

Ladies and gentlemen, this is a showcase to open the main card.

Tuco Tokkos has been on the receiving end of highlight reels in his recent two losses to Oumar Sy and Zhang Mingyang, the latter of whom absolutely obliterated him. Unfortunately for Tokkos, Navajo Stirling is an Australian smashing machine.

Standing 6-foot-4 at an undefeated 5-0, Stirling is built for this division. He's knocked out every opponent since his pro debut. That's not to say the 6-foot-4 Tokkos isn't also a rangy fighter, but he's still a former middleweight as opposed to Stirling, who previously fought at heavyweight.

The 27-year-old City Kickboxing product is going to catch another body this weekend.

Pick: Stirling

Preliminary notes

Joel Alvarez, Joel Alvarez, Joel Alvarez, Joel Alvarez.

Did I mention Joel Alvarez?

"Must-see TV" is a common description used in our prelim notes and the Spaniard embodies it to the fullest. Twenty four wins, 17 submissions and 4 knockouts. And he's fighting Drakkar Klose, who's known to provide a sneaky banger here and there.

Saying anything else about the prelims is pointless because this is all you should care about.

Quick picks:

Michael Johnson (-225) def. Ottman Azaitar (+180)

Joel Alvarez (-450) def. Drakkar Klose (+340)

Sean Woodson (-155) def. Fernando Padilla (+130)

Felipe Lima (-250) def. Miles Johns (+200)

Miranda Maverick (-550) def. Jamey-Lyn Horth (+400)

Davey Grant (-110) def. Ramon Taveras (-110)

Josefine Lindgren Knutsson (-250) def. Piera Rodriguez (+195)