Top of the roster has been the Blue Jays' undoing

TORONTO — When the Toronto Blue Jays flew north from Dunedin to begin the 2018 season, there was some very real optimism around the team.

Sure, the Yankees and Red Sox outclassed them on paper, but some of their projections were sneaky-good and they looked like a credible wild-card threat even coming off a dismal 76-86 season. The primary reason to forecast a turnaround was that there were some formidable players at the top of the roster.

Although 2017 was an ugly year, Josh Donaldson put on a show in the second half, Justin Smoak was a breakout star, Marcus Stroman was outstanding once again, Roberto Osuna took another step, and J.A. Happ was good for yet another three-win year.

The reason that team tanked was not a lack of production at the top, but rather a series of brutal performances from the likes of Jose Bautista, Kendrys Morales, and the Ryan Goins-Darwin Barney duo that dragged the team into the abyss. The club’s parade of depth starters also played a major role as well.

So, when you take that core, plus a returning Aaron Sanchez, and surround them with theoretically better complimentary pieces like Curtis Granderson, Yangervis Solarte, Randal Grichuk and Jaime Garcia, it’s not hard to imagine how you’d have a winning team on your hands.

Here we are on the 28th of June and the 37-43 Blue Jays very much do not have a winning team on their hands.

You cannot blame the new additions though, with the exception of Garcia and early-season Grichuk, as all of them have given the Blue Jays at least what they expected — even their collection of veteran relievers on minor-league deals. The bottom of this club’s roster has been just fine.

The top? Not so much.

Everything that could go wrong for Donaldson has this season, to the point where he’s not even a viable trade deadline chip anymore. Osuna is in the midst of a 75-game suspension thanks to his assault charge. Stroman is just coming back after a rough April and some DL time. Smoak has fallen back to earth. Only Happ is a constant.

These five players combined for 17.9 WAR in 2017. So far this season that number sits at 4.1 — almost half of that belonging to Happ alone. Even though WAR is a cumulative statistic, that’s a huge drop off and although the team has had a few players step up, they simply aren’t getting big-time individual performances.

If we take the same measure of the Blue Jays core this year (their two top position players, two top starters, and best relievers by WAR), we’re looking at Teoscar Hernandez, Luke Maile, Happ, Marco Estrada and Ryan Tepera. That group is far from star-studded, and just doesn’t match up league-wide. Hernandez, for instance, is the Blue Jays’ top position player with 1.1 WAR, but ranks 111th in the majors.

Put another way, here’s a comparison between the Blue Jays’ top players and those on the Yankees and Red Sox:

Yes, that’s an unholy amount of WAR for one graph, and WAR isn’t perfect. That said, it’s a good approximation of value, and these numbers tell a story. The best the Blue Jays have to offer don’t compare to their division foes. Even if they were firing on all cylinders they’d have this problem to some extent, but right now the gulf is enormous.

To be honest, just a list of names is probably as effective as a chart. Do the Blue Jays top guns match up with Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Luis Severino, CC Sabathia and Aroldis Chapman? How about Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Chris Sale, Rick Porcello and Matt Barnes (who it must be said is a bit of a random name for this list)? The answer is a fairly resounding “no.”

There is a reason inane cliches like “your best players have to be your best players” continue to persist. There is truth in them, even if it’s an obtuse kind of truth. For a full gamut of reasons the Blue Jays’ best players have been unable to be their best players this year, and the next guys up have been more serviceable than game-breaking.

None of this is to say that no one on this roster can’t be a difference maker again. Stroman can certainly bounce back. Sanchez is as talented as anyone. Donaldson could catch fire in a largely futile manner down the stretch.

Even so, the club’s biggest names haven’t been near their respective peaks in 2018, and that — perhaps more than anything else — is why the biggest Blue Jays storyline more than a month from the trade deadline is who’s getting sold and for what.

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