Tip Drill: Playoff advice for your December to Remember

The fantasy playoffs are a week away, and in some leagues, you might be facing an immediate must-win situation. It’s late in the season, and the stakes are going up. Here are some fantasy tips to consider, advice that’s specifically geared towards the playoff owner (and yes, some of it follows up on our November Tip Drill). Share your bonus tips in the comments.

• Get to the wire first

Look, I’m not telling anyone to wreck their sleep patterns or sabotage their marriage. But if you’re out of FAAB monies, it might behoove you to make sure you’re the first person getting to the unclaimed freight every week. (The corollary to this tip is our No. 2 theme: try to be a week or two early.)

• Look ahead, with an eye on the schedule

All that summer Strength of Schedule stuff, I think it’s a fool’s errand. Who’s to say which defense will be good three months into the future. Now, we have 12 weeks of data to pour through, and some steady trends and facts to rely upon. The NFL is constantly fluid, of course, but I feel a lot better about a Dec. 1 bet than I do a summertime one.

[Join the $100K Baller for Week 13 | Tips for your Daily lineup]

In the early part of the season, I’m unlikely to have extra depth at the fringe positions. I’m certainly not carrying extra defenses back then, and I’m probably going thin on tight ends, too. But when we get to this part of the year, the shape of my roster changes. It’s the only time of the year I’m cool with carrying more than one defense. We now know who we can pick on, and it makes a sense to get there early.

Play for the big inning in September, get the best team you can. Play the game position in December; get the best week-to-week starters you can, even if it costs you depth in the meantime. The bye weeks are effectively over. Your goals, your objectives are different.

• Slap on the cuffs

Handcuffing is like bunting in baseball, playing for a small inning over a big one. But I’m winning to consider handcuffing in the latter stages of a season, if the payoff is big enough and if we’re sure who the No. 2 option is. There’s a simple rule of thumb here — if the backup is unclear, I probably will not view anyone there as a priority add, all else equal.

• If you’re a big underdog, concentrate your scoring

It’s a simple tenet of game theory — the heavy favorites should play more conservatively, while the heavy underdogs need to add volatility, chase some upside. One way to do this is to concentrate your scoring, by hooking up your quarterback with one of his primary targets. You want to build the simplest plausible scenario that enables you to get lucky and take down someone with a better team. (Please understand, this is something you consider if the matchup is heavily lopsided, only.)

Dontrelle Inman versus Malcolm Mitchell could be a flex coin flip for you, but if you need Phil Rivers in the first place, maybe that’s enough to push the decision to Inman.

[Week 13 rankings: Overall | FLEX | QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF | K]

Sometimes when I find myself as a heavy dog, I look to a team defense that is on the same team as my opponent’s quarterback. Maybe if I own the Packers defense this week, it could score in place of Aaron Rodgers. It’s not a perfect correlation and again, it’s just something I’d consider in an unusual circumstance. I’m just looking for a plausible, possible story that could swing things to my favor.

• Re-evaluate as the game is in progress

Here is where your DFS experience and instincts can really help. Think like a late-swapper. As the week starts to gain definition, as the early and midweek results are coming in, ask yourself if you need to do anything different with the late-starting players on your roster. Perhaps it’s time to switch to upside or floor, based on where the score stands.

Also make sure your later-starting players are tied to flex spots, to give yourself the most flexibility.

• Be mindful of who you drop and when you drop them

Sometimes I’ll hold off on a dropped player until I’m sure they won’t clear waivers in time for Sunday. I don’t mean this as a spam-the-queue strategy, let’s be clear on that — picking up 19 tight ends just to stop an opponent, that’s against the spirit of the game, the stuff that ruins fantasy. But holding off on a drop where you fear the player could help an opponent this week, that’s just common sense.

• Listen to all you respect, but make your own decisions

This is a full-season, all-sport tip, but I like to roll it out at this time of year. If you pick right, the win will be more satisfying. And if you misfire, at least you made the decision you felt the best about. There’s nothing wrong with gathering all the good information you can find — that’s a good process — but trust yourself with the final call. You got yourself to the playoffs, right? Trust the man in the chair.

Yes, some of these tips are common sense, but heck, that’s just about the best thing a fantasy owner can have.

• As for strength of schedule . . .

I generally don’t think as much about Strength of Schedule as most pundits do — offenses control outcomes more than defenses do, and I tend to make big adjustments only in extreme examples. Nonetheless, I get asked about Playoff Schedules every year, and with that in mind, I ranked everyone’s SOS below, for how easy it is against the pass and the run. Easier schedules are at the top, and the harder ones are at the bottom. It’s a mixture of data and math, numbers and common sense. Please use it as a starting point, not a start-sit mandate.

Keep it all in perspective — an easy schedule might not push Todd Gurley to glory, and a hard slate might not stop Tom Brady. And of course every week of the NFL will bring new players, new injuries, new situations to analyze — the fluidity never goes away. We have to take a new snapshot every week.

Good luck in the second season.

Passing Schedules, Week 14-16 (Ranked easiest to hardest)

OAK: (@KC, @SD, IND)

DEN: (@TEN, NE, @KC)

CAR: (SD, @WAS, ATL)

LAR: (ATL, @SEA, SF)

CHI: (@DET, GB, WAS)

NYJ: (@SF, MIA, @NE)

MIN: (@JAC, IND, @GB)

ATL: (@LA, SF, @CAR)

NO: (@TB, @ARI, TB)

TB: (NO, @DAL, @NO)

NYG: (DAL, DET, @PHI)

JAC: (MIN, @HOU, TEN)

ARI: (@MIA, NO, @SEA)

PIT: (@BUF, @CIN, BAL)

SEA: (@GB, LA, ARI)

BAL: (@NE, PHI, @PIT)

HOU: (@IND, JAC, CIN)

WAS: (@PHI, CAR, @CHI)

KC: (OAK, TEN, DEN)

DAL: (@NYG, TB, DET)

SF: (NYJ, @ATL, @LA)

PHI: (WAS, @BAL, NYG)

CLE: (CIN, @BUF, SD)

SD: (@CAR, OAK, @CLE)

MIA: (ARI, @NYJ, @BUF)

BUF: (PIT, CLE, MIA)

TEN: (DEN, @KC, @JAC)

IND: (HOU, @MIN, @OAK)

DET: (CHI, @NYG, @DAL)

GB: (SEA, @CHI, MIN)

CIN: (@CLE, PIT, @HOU)

NE: (BAL, @DEN, NYJ)

Rushing Schedules, Week 14-16 (Ranked easiest to hardest)

LA: (ATL, @SEA, SF)

NYJ: (@SF, MIA, @NE)

ATL: (@LA, SF, @CAR)

CHI: (@DET, GB, WAS)

KC: (OAK, TEN, DEN)

SEA: (@GB, LA, ARI)

CAR: (SD, @WAS, ATL)

CIN: (@CLE, PIT, @HOU)

SF: (NYJ, @ATL, @LA)

SD: (@CAR, OAK, @CLE)

BUF: (PIT, CLE, MIA)

TEN: (DEN, @KC, @JAC)

MIN: (@JAC, IND, @GB)

HOU: (@IND, JAC, CIN)

IND: (HOU, @MIN, @OAK)

GB: (SEA, @CHI, MIN)

JAC: (MIN, @HOU, TEN)

NE: (BAL, @DEN, NYJ)

ARI: (@MIA, NO, @SEA)

DET: (CHI, @NYG, @DAL)

DEN: (@TEN, NE, @KC)

OAK: (@KC, @SD, IND)

CLE: (CIN, @BUF, SD)

MIA: (ARI, @NYJ, @BUF)

BAL: (@NE, PHI, @PIT)

PHI: (WAS, @BAL, NYG)

DAL: (@NYG, TB, DET)

TB: (NO, @DAL, @NO)

NYG: (DAL, DET, @PHI)

NO: (@TB, @ARI, TB)

WAS: (@PHI, CAR, @CHI)

PIT: (@BUF, @CIN, BAL)