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Three-Point Stance: Forget 'Title,' Green Bay is 'Turnaround' Town

Aaron Rodgers isn't the only one thrilled to have Jordy Nelson back. (Getty)
Aaron Rodgers isn’t the only one thrilled to have Jordy Nelson back. (Getty)

Last season, the Packers were the meat in the grinder. Staring with Jordy Nelson’s season-ending injury in the Preseason and punctuated with wretched efforts from Aaron Rodgers, Eddie Lacy, Davante Adams and Randall Cobb, once fantasy fruitful Green Bay spoiled. In this edition of ‘The Stance,’ Brad Evans and Liz Loza detail just how big the bounce backs will be by the Bay.

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Thanks to Jordy’s absence, Lacy’s drop off and the embarrassment that was Adams, Aaron Rodgers suffered his worst fantasy season as a starter finishing QB14 in points per game. Is the following statement BELIEVE or MAKE BELIEVE: Mr. Munn immediately regains his 2014 mojo, totals at least 40 combined scores and finishes atop the QB ranks.

Liz – BELIEVE. Maybe I drank the cheddar-flavored Kool-Aid, but I’m in on a hearty bounce back for Rodgers. I don’t think he’ll best his 2014 numbers, but I do expect him to come close, passing for 4,350 yards, 36 TDs, and another 2 scores via the ground. An angry unit who, beyond all reason, cobbled together a postseason run that nearly took them to the NFC Championship, this squad is motivated.

With Nelson and Cobb back to health as well as the edition of a slimmed-down Lacy, Rodgers should have the weapons necessary to steal the division and dazzle the league. And if all else fails… Jeff Janis has GOT TO BE on the precipice of a breakout, right?

Brad – MAKE BELIEVE. Taking the make believe side isn’t pointed derision at Rodgers. He, like Tom Brady, is a living legend who continues to rev his engine at a high RPM. Last year’s catastrophe was due to a series of unfortunate events — Nelson injury, offensive line setbacks, Cobb inefficiency, Lacy cupcake consumption, etc.

Nelson’s return, Lacy’s weight loss and with the offensive line, regarded as a top-five unit by Pro Football Focus, intact once again, Rodgers should storm back with a vengeance. However, I’m banking on Cam Newton or Andrew Luck besting him in the category. Keep in mind, the decorated passer hasn’t topped the QB ranks in points per game since his magical 2011. Unless the Cheesehead defense is overly moldy, it’s hard to fathom him notching a similar 48:6 TD:INT (pass and rush TD) ratio. He’s firm as my QB3.

Shockingly, there are some in the fantasy community who are bashful when it comes to drafting Jordy Nelson. At his 16.1 ADP (WR9) is the recovered wideout OVERVALUED, UNDERVALUED or PROPERLY VALUED?

Liz – PROPERLY VALUED. Maybe a smidge undervalued. While torn ACLs aren’t the death knell they used to be, and all reports seem to indicate that Nelson’s rehab is ahead of schedule, I’d still like to see him taking contact before pronouncing him a top-five prospect. After all, he’s been away from football for a whole season and just turned 31 years old. I currently have him ranked as my No. 8 receiver, behind Alshon Jeffery and ahead of Allen Robinson. Assuming Aaron Rodgers’ favorite target is 100 percent, I’d forecast a 1,300 yard and 10 TD campaign for the nine-year pro.

Brad – UNDERVALUED. Nearly a year removed from tearing his ACL, Jordy should regain his classic form in short order. He isn’t straight from the womb at 31, but his rehab has come along smoothly, he fits the offense perfectly and has a Hall of Fame level quarterback slinging spirals in his general direction. As long as his vintage separation speed is there, he should come close to the WR4 value he achieved in 2014 (151-98-1519-13). After the big three (Brown, Beckham and Julio), Hopkins and Dez, he’s the most trustworthy option at the position. Take the money and run in Round 2.

Eddie Lacy, who resembled a corpulent roly-poly last year, has reportedly dropped several folds this offseason. OVER/UNDER, 209.5 total fantasy points (.5 PPR) for the P90X punisher.

Liz – UNDER. Lacy has averaged 15.5 totes per game through the past three campaigns overall. Assuming that number of totes for a 16-game season at (a conservative) 4.1 YPC, Lacy would produce 1,017 rushing yards. Adding in another 33 receptions (nearly 2 per game for 16 games) for 275 receiving yards as well as 10 total TDs (double his number of scores from 2015, but fewer than either 2013 or 2014), the former Bama back would produce 206 fantasy points at the year’s end.

That sort of output would make Lacy a low-end RB1, which is spot on to his current ADP (RB10). Could he beat those numbers? Sure. But this is the floor, folks.

Brad – OVER. Ignore last year’s disaster. No longer pounding Little Debbie products, ‘Fit’ Lacy should regain his previous fool-flattening form. If he exhibits those characteristics in training camp, it’s feasible he’ll slide back into the 17-18 touch per game (2.6 rec/g) workload he tallied in 2014. Assuming even the low end of his projected share, at his 4.85 yards per touch career average, he would finish with 1,292 total yards and double digit scores TDs. Using the abacus, that would equal 210.2 fantasy points, which seems realistic. In the Packers offense, the chance of him bettering that output is significant. He’s an appealing selection at his 29.2 ADP (RB10).

Bull rush Brad @YahooNoise and Liz @LizLoza_FF on Twitter.