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Three-Point Stance: Can DeMarco avoid fantasy disaster in Tennessee?

DeMarco Murray will undoubtedly be one of the most debated fantasy rushers this draft season (AP).
DeMarco Murray will undoubtedly be one of the most debated fantasy rushers this draft season (AP).

In recent seasons, Tennessee was a location where fantasy value went to die. Now brimming with quality talent, it could soon rival the Steve McNair/Eddie George/Derrick Mason/Frank Wycheck glory days.

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Reheated fried fish. That’s what DeMarco Murray resembled last year in Philadelphia. Now out from underneath Chip Kelly’s oppressive thumb, he is hoping to rekindle the magic from his pace-setting 2014. Currently going at a very affordable price in average leagues (59.3 ADP, RB23), BELIEVE or MAKE BELIEVE Murray returns to top-15 form this fall?

Scott – MAKE BELIEVE. I realize Murray’s awful 2015 season was tied to a poor fit in Kelly’s since-mothballed offense, but a 3.6 YPC is red ink on anyone’s journal. Will Tennessee’s defense be good enough to keep Murray in positive game-flow this year? Does Murray have enough in the tank to hold off shiny, fresh rookie RB Derrick Henry? How much of the Titans rushing game will fall on the legs of sophomore Marcus Mariota? I’m once-bitten, twice-shy on Murray, and I’ve had some bad experiences with Mike Mularkey in the past, too.

Brad – BELIEVE. Everyone is quick to dismiss Murray after last year’s catastrophe in Philadelphia. He was the human “Party Rock Anthem,” everyday the dude was shufflin.’ But, as I stated even before the 2015 season began, he was a power runner transitioning to a zone scheme, an ill fit. Mix in Chip Kelly’s generally coarse nature and a downfall was unsurprising. Now thrust back into a downhill system suited to his skills, Murray is primed for a bounce back. Recall even in last year’s sidestep, he evaded an appreciable 4.2 tacklers per game and was active as a receiver (44 receptions), an advantage he has over Derrick Henry.

The Titans offensive line must advance, but it’s conceivable he lands in the RB12-RB15 range amassing some 1,100-1,200 total yards and 6-8 TDs. He may be the graying steak in the meat case, but the ‘manager’s special’ is worth the risk at his current ADP.

Marcus Mariota enters Year 2 bulkier and more confident. Expectations are the QB will take a step forward in his development this season. At his current 145.5 ADP (QB16) is the passer OVERVALUED, UNDERVALUED or PROPERLY VALUED?

Scott – UNDERVALUED. The Titans are expected to make more use of Mariota’s rushing ability and athleticism this year, and the receiving group improves with the addition of underrated WR Rishard Matthews. And Mariota has always earned high marks for his intelligence and work ethic; a new offensive scheme isn’t a deal-breaker for me. At the current sticker, you’re well priced for profit.

Brad – UNDERVALUED. Tennessee’s arsenal isn’t dazzling by any stretch, but it’s better than advertised. The addition of Rishard Matthews (2.15 fpts/TGT in ’15) bolsters a unit featuring ultra-reliable TE Delanie Walker, underneath asset Kendall Wright and upside play Dorial Green-Beckham. The fortified offensive line will have to mesh quickly and Mariota will have to improve his deep-ball touch, but the ingredients are in place for a significant step forward in production. Keep in mind, the Titans defense is full of warts and Mularkey has made it no secret he wants his QB to run more. That multidimensionality could make him this year’s Tyrod Taylor, an under-drafted dual-purpose producer who could crack the QB top-12.

Dorial Green-Beckham (87.3 ADP, WR43) capped his first year in the league with two 100-yard efforts in his last four. Off that noteworthy finish and with a full offseason under his belt, OVER/UNDER on final fantasy rank among WRs 36.5? (Under means he finishes inside top-36; over, outside.)

Scott – OVER has to be my play here. DGB looked raw and unpolished most of last year, sometimes not even knowing where to line up on plays. This is a team that wants to run the ball first and foremost, and there’s a crowded situation with the pass-catchers: Kendall Wright, freshly-acquired Rishard Matthews, stud tight end Delanie Walker. I’m not going to price in significant improvement for Green-Beckham, and if I’m late to the party, so be it. It’s not like this is a passing game overflowing with upside.

Brad – OVER, by a whisker. At 6-foot-5, 237-pounds, DGB owns the physical tools to develop into a poor man’s Calvin Johnson. His rookie season was defined by inconsistency, but his strong finish (two 100-yard games in his last four) lent support to a bright future.

Mularkey openly noted the receiver’s ongoing mental errors in OTAs/minicamp despite DGB’s claim he’s had a “good offseason.” Still, with Matthews, Walker and Wright to feed and given the rebuilt backfield, it seems unlikely Beckham cracks the WR top-36. Something in range of 65-750-6 feels right.

Harass Brad on Twitter @YahooNoise and Scott @Scott_Pianowski.