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Three-Point: After Peterson is Minnesota a frigid fantasy wasteland?

Can someone, anyone deliver starter-level numbers outside AD in Minnesota? (Getty)
Can someone, anyone deliver starter-level numbers outside AD in Minnesota? (Getty)

Brrrrrrrr! As witnessed in last year’s playoffs against Seattle, Minneapolis is a place where beers freeze, faces numb and serious shrinkage occurs. However, moving into cozier digs this season, the Vikings hope to Christen their new stadium with ample wins. In this edition of ‘The Stance,’ Brad Evans and Liz Loza pick through the ice in an attempt to uncover fantasy value outside Adrian Peterson.

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At 31 and with 2,619 career touches on his resume, Adrian Peterson isn’t exactly a lightly driven luxury vehicle. Though he still routinely clocking 4.45-4.52 40-yard times, on a scale of 1-10 with one being catching gentle passes from Drew Brees and 10 being acting as Vince Wilfork’s Slip ‘n Slide, how afraid are you of investing a Round 1 pick in Peterson?

Liz – EIGHT. Half-man, half-Lamborghini, AP is a one-of-a-kind talent. Still, towards the end of 2015 his body started to wear down, and he was forced to contend with a slew of nagging injuries. Even the Bears’ thirty-second ranked run defense (per Football Outsiders) was able to force Peterson from the field in Week 15. Any RB – even the Purple Jesus – is bound to break down as the season progresses. Given his age and odometer reading, however, it’s likely that the usual wear and tear of the game could be a catalyst for something more substantial sooner.

While I normally don’t recommend drafting handcuffs, I do think that Peterson owners are wise to invest in Jerick McKinnon. In 2015, each time the Georgia Southern product carried the rock more than 15 times he averaged at least 5.2 YPC and produced a minimum of 83 rushing yards. In the three times he’s had a shot to be the workhorse, McKinnon has finished among the top 25 fantasy players at the position (and that was with Matt Asiata vulturing the goal line).

To me, the biggest downside of drafting AP is that he’s going to cost you two roster spots. If you’re cool with that… then feel free to select ALL DAY.

Brad – FOUR. On the proposed scale, a four is equivalent to being Alex Smith’s punching bag, a slightly enhanced risk. Unlike other legends before him (e.g. Steven Jackson), Peterson remains quite the physical specimen at his advanced age (31). Last season he evaded the most tackles of any rusher in the league (122, 7.6 per game), tallied the 11th-best juke rate and even caught 83.3 percent of his attempts. His prolonged siesta in 2014 likely extended his career.

The muscle car’s dashboard reading is high and only four age-31 RBs since 2000 have topped 200 standard fantasy points, but the guy is a freak of nature. In an environment that emphasizes ball control, he should again finish well inside the position’s top-10. Father Time will have to wait.

Pick a player. Who has the better fantasy season: Stefon Diggs or Laquon Treadwell?

Liz – DIGGS. I want to say Treadwell. And I understand that’s the sexier pick. But in such a low-volume passing offense (454 attempts in 2015), I want the guy who’s going to see the most targets. Diggs isn’t the red zone monster that we all assume Treadwell will be, but he does have great hands and he’s good after the catch. Plus, he already has a year of experience under his belt. Treadwell certainly has a higher ceiling, but I’m more willing to bank on that upside next year.

Brad – DIGGS. Though Diggs may not be as finely skilled compared to Treadwell, the lessons he learned in Year 1 should vault him to the top of the Vikings targets heap. Knowledge is experience after all. Look for him to build on last season’s 84-52-720-4 (in 13 games).

According to Player Profiler, Diggs performed terrifically in traffic as a rookie notching a 58.3 contested catch rate (No. 15 among WRs). He also totaled a healthy 8.6 yards per target. Don’t expect a sudden leap, but final numbers in range of 65-875-6 are certainly reachable. Treadwell won’t lag too far behind, but I suspect he plays second fiddle over the season’s first half, hindering his overall upside.

Complete honesty, Teddy Bridgewater is only roster worthy in two-QB and 30-team leagues. Throwing a bone to that minuscule crowd, OVER/UNDER on TD passes this fall 18.5.

Liz – OVER (barely). After passing for 14 scores in back-to-back outings, Teddy’s ceiling seems cemented. However, I have faith that Treadwell can deliver in the red area of the field just enough to bump that total up. After all, it’s not a leap to assume that Minnesota spent a first-round pick on the 6-foot-2 and 221 pound wideout for that exact purpose. Plus, if AP falters, the Vikes will be forced to put the ball in the air slightly more.

Fearless Forecast for Bridgewater: 460 attempts, 303 completions, 3,406 yards, 19 TDs

Brad – UNDER. If you have faith Bridgewater, operating in a highly conservative offense (28.3 pass att/g in ’15, No. 32 of 32 in NFL) and given his limited offerings in his first two years in the league, will flirt with 20 TD passes this fall, you probably also believe Melania Trump would never peek at someone else’s test paper. He did post an admirable 65.3 completion percentage in 2015 and finished No. 14 in deep-ball percentage, but his sickly 3.2 air yards per attempt and general lackluster productivity lend pause. Even if Treadwell is a real deal No. 1, it’s hard to see him finishing with anything more than 18 TD passes. Wake me when he gets interesting.

Bull rush Brad @YahooNoise and Liz @LizLoza_FF on Twitter.