If Sunday felt like a really crazy day in the NFL, it was. There are stats to prove it.
There were three instances in which teams had less than a one-in-50 shot to win, and somehow pulled off the victory. That doesn't even count the Atlanta Falcons-Los Angeles Rams game, in which the Falcons went from trailing 28-3 to having the ball in Rams territory, down 31-25. Rams cornerback Jalen Ramsey picked off a pass from Falcons quarterback Marcus Mariota to stop that comeback attempt.
There were plenty of other successful comebacks on Sunday.
According to Next Gen Stats, the Miami Dolphins, New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals all had less than a 2-percent chance to win at some point during their games on Sunday. All three won. There had been only 17 games over the last seven seasons in which teams that reached 98-percent win probability lost, according to Next Gen Stats, and then it happened three times on Sunday alone.
That led to some absolutely bananas win probability charts.
Dolphins rally to beat Ravens
The Dolphins' comeback over the Baltimore Ravens happened over the course of the fourth quarter. Baltimore led 35-14 going into the fourth quarter. Miami scored its first touchdown of the fourth quarter with a little more than 12 minutes left, then hit two long touchdowns after that to tie the game. Justin Tucker hit a long field goal for the Ravens just before the two-minute warning but the Dolphins answered, with Tua Tagovailoa hitting Jaylen Waddle for the game-winning touchdown with 14 seconds left.
The Ravens scored touchdowns on five of their first seven possessions. At one point in the fourth quarter Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson had a perfect passer rating and also 118 yards rushing. And the Ravens lost.
Jets stun the Browns
The Jets' comeback was more sudden than either of the other two comebacks. The Browns had the game wrapped up with two minutes to play.
Nick Chubb's 12-yard touchdown at the two-minute warning gave the Browns a 30-17 lead. The extra point was no good but that didn't seem to matter. NFL teams had won 2,229 straight games when leading by at least 13 points in the final two minutes, according to ESPN Stats and Info. The last time a team blew that kind of lead was 2001 when the Chicago Bears beat the ... Browns.
The Jets were't a likely candidate to end the streak. But Joe Flacco hit Corey Davis for a 66-yard score. The Jets still needed to recover an onside kick, which is rare with the new rules. But it happened when a spinning onside kick was flubbed by Browns receiver Amari Cooper. The Jets took the ball right downfield and rookie receiver Garrett Wilson scored with 22 seconds left. The Browns still somehow had a shot in the final seconds to at least get a field-goal try when they reached their own 46-yard line, but Jacoby Brissett was picked off after that and the Jets had one of the craziest wins in their franchise history.
Cardinals come back vs. Raiders
The Cardinals looked bad in the first half against the Las Vegas Raiders. They trailed 20-0 deep into the third quarter. They were down 23-7 into the fourth quarter.
Arizona got one touchdown and then a wild two-point conversion from Kyler Murray in which he ran 85.69 yards according to Next Gen Stats.
That was a sign of things to come. The Cardinals got another touchdown on the final play of regulation and a two-point conversion (after taking a delay of game penalty) to tie it, then in overtime they got a fumble recovery return for a touchdown to win it. There was some history involved in that too.
Yesterday also marked the first time in NFL history a team scored a game-tying TD + 2-point conversion on the final 2 plays of regulation & then won in overtime pic.twitter.com/XHrRhaQz7x
— Mark Dalton (@CardsMarkD) September 19, 2022
On any other Sunday, that thriller would have been the talk of the NFL. In Week 2, it was just one of three crazy comebacks.