The Numbers Do Lie in Fantasy Baseball: Don't be fooled by these four stats

A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy categories doesn't always tell the whole story of how a player is performing. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify recent misleading numbers that are worth a closer look.

Yes ... The Numbers Do Lie.

Michael Harris’ .490 OPS is a lie

Harris has quickly gone from one of 2022’s best waiver-wire adds to one of this year’s biggest fantasy busts; only Jean Segura has a lower OPS among 162 qualified hitters. While pitchers have made adjustments against him this season, Harris has also dealt with lousy luck, with the second-biggest difference between his wOBA and expected wOBA among 250-plus hitters. Harris has a similar HardHit% and strikeout rate while almost doubling his BB% compared to last year, so better results are in his future. THE BAT X projects him to hit .266 with 27 homers/steals in fewer than 350 ABs rest-of-season.

Harris nearly went 20/20 in just 414 at-bats as a rookie last year, has been crushing the ball lately and should start producing a ton of fantasy value once again.

J.P. France’s one win is a lie

France has just one win despite allowing one run or fewer in four of six starts since joining Houston’s rotation. The Astros' offense has taken a step back this year, but Houston still has the fourth-most wins in baseball. France flashed some of the best Stuff+ in the minors and currently sports the same WHIP (1.15) as Cy Young favorite Shane McClanahan. He ranks top-15 among starters in CSW, just ahead of Kevin Gausman. France has pitched six-plus innings in each of his past two starts and is scheduled to face Cleveland’s league-worst offense (80 wRC+) next time out.

Pitching well and with the help of Houston’s strong bullpen and defense, France should start racking up wins soon. He’s available in more than 70% of Yahoo leagues.

MacKenzie Gore’s 1.42 WHIP is a lie

Gore is a former No. 3 pick and top pitching prospect who's figuring it out. WHIP will never be the young lefty’s specialty as a pitcher who struggles with walks, but Gore is throwing strikes far more this season, ranking top-35 in CSW. His .344 BABIP is the highest among 67 qualified starters, despite a .241 expected batting average (and a .301 xBABIP).

Washington’s shaky defense doesn’t help, but Gore ranks sixth in K% (29.2), sandwiched between Clayton Kershaw and Luis Castillo. He also ranks eighth in SwStr% (13.9), sandwiched between Shohei Ohtani and Kevin Gausman. He has transformed from having the yips in the minors to being one of fantasy’s best strikeout sources.

Gore has a tough upcoming schedule with matchups in Atlanta and Houston next, but he’ll make for an excellent fantasy target after that stretch.

Dane Dunning’s 2.52 ERA is a lie

Dunning has been one of the best SP adds off waivers this season, and he’ll likely continue to carry fantasy value with the help of a Rangers offense that has scored 20 more runs than any other team in baseball. His rotation spot is also fully safe now with Jacob deGrom out for the season.

Dunning hadn’t allowed a homer all season until his last start. Even after serving up three home runs Tuesday, his HR/FB% (5.5) is still one of the five lowest among 97 qualified starters. His fortunate home run rate also comes with a 5.5 K/9 and a lowly .257 BABIP that's 50 points below his career mark. It’s no surprise that Dunning has one of the biggest differences between ERA (2.52) and expected ERA (4.70) this season.

Dunning deserves credit for inducing weak contact, and he’s capable of striking out more batters, but his profile suggests that a big ERA correction is coming.