Advertisement

The big MLS Decision Day storylines to follow on Sunday

Oscar Pareja and Pablo Mastroeni
Oscar Pareja’s FC Dallas will try to hold off Pablo Mastroeni’s Colorado Rapids for MLS’s best record. (AP Photo)

We kind of hate to say it, because we like Major League Soccer. It’s a fun league that is visibly getting better by the year and sates our soccer cravings during the long summers between European club seasons when there isn’t a major international tournament. It’s our domestic league, but we don’t just watch on principle. We watch because it’s good television.

That said, the regular season, for the most part, is kind of lost on us. To wit, when MLS kicks off its final round of regular-season games simultaneously on Sunday to decide the last playoff places, there are just six teams that don’t have anything to play for. The other 14 have either clinched a playoff spot and are jostling for seeding or the Supporters’ Shield, or they’re fighting just to land one of the dozen berths.

[ Major League Soccer: Decision Day Tracker | Scoreboard | Standings ]

You could convincingly argue that so many teams still having something to play for on the final day is a positive – held up as one of the key benefits for promotion and relegation, by the way. But that masks a problem: 33 rounds of regular-season games knocked out just six teams, or 30 percent of the field.

Which is to say that very little was accomplished in almost eight months of soccer. With 60 percent of teams reaching the playoffs, the regular season loses a lot of meaning. All it achieved was to sift out the abject and the forgettable – the Chicago Fire, the Houston Dynamo, the Columbus Crew, the Vancouver Whitecaps, the San Jose Earthquakes and Orlando City SC. It’s no wonder the regular season still struggles to make a cultural dent in the mainstream.

The slow part of the year is over, though, and things are finally about to get dramatic. So here’s what to watch for on Sunday at 4 p.m. ET when the last 10 games kick off.

Who wins the Supporters’ Shield?

Two teams remain in contention to succeed the New York Red Bulls as MLS’s regular season champions. Oscar Pareja’s indomitable and paradigm-shifting FC Dallas, with its scintillating soccer and thriving youth academy, which missed out on goal difference last year. And Pablo Mastroeni’s miraculous worst-to-first Colorado Rapids, who came last in the West in 2015, but trail Dallas by just two points. Amazingly, the Rapids have scored the second-fewest goals in MLS – 38. But then they’ve conceded just 31, six fewer than anybody else.

Mauro Diaz-less Dallas needs only a tie to sew this thing up, provided the Rapids don’t make up three goals on the goal difference. But FCD travels to the Los Angeles Galaxy, a team that tends to get hot this time of year. The Rapids, meanwhile, play host to the Dynamo, who have lost three of their last four.

Who nabs the last four spots?

Let’s start with the East, where things are simplest. The Red Bulls, New York City FC, Toronto FC, D.C. United and the Montreal Impact have a lock on their spots. The Philadelphia Union and the New England Revolution are in a tussle over the last place in the postseason. On paper anyway. The Union hold a three-point lead and – just as crucially – are up 12 in goal difference. Philly, in other words, would have to lose by a half dozen or so to the Red Bulls at home, while the Revs also beat the Impact, who are playing for seeding, by around half a dozen goals. Yeah … not happening.

In the West, it’s all much more complicated. Only Dallas, Colorado and L.A. are certain of their places. Behind them, four teams are fighting for three spots. Real Salt Lake has 46 points, Seattle Sounders 45 and both Sporting Kansas City and Portland Timbers with 44. Of the latter two, SKC holds the goal difference edge by just one goal. Now here’s where it gets fun: the top two of these teams, RSL and the Sounders, play each other in the Emerald City. But SKC and the Timbers play teams already eliminated – the Quakes and the Whitecaps, respectively. Which is to say that this thing remains wide open.

What about the Golden Boot?

Bradley Wright-Phillips
Bradley Wright-Phillips leads the MLS with 23 goals. (Getty Images)

NYRB’s Bradley Wright-Phillips is a man of few words, so it’s worth remarking on his behalf that his three-season haul of 67 goals has never been equaled by anybody in league history. His 2016 tally of 23 puts him in the lead for a second Golden Boot in three years, after he matched the MLS single-season scoring record with 27 in 2014.

But New York City FC’s David Villa is turning into one of the finest Designated Player signings around, as he’s netted 22 times so far after getting 18 last season.

The Impact’s Ignacio Piatti has just 17 and isn’t in contention for this trophy. Neither are the next men back, Sebastian Giovinco, Dom Dwyer and Fanendo Adi, who are all tied at 16.

Do the Red Bulls quietly win a third Eastern Conference regular season title in four years?

Remember when the first New York franchise was the most dysfunctional in the league? That feels like a long time ago.

Unless New York City FC beats the Crew, the Red Bulls lose to the Union and the Yankee Stadium-dwelling upstarts somehow figure out how to make up 13 in the goal difference, Jesse Marsch’s team will win a third conference regular season title in four years – while twice claiming the Supporters’ Shield as well. And that’s in spite of going 1-6 in their first seven games this year. Oh, and they smashed NYCFC 7-0 away this season.

Remarkably, this has happened in the midst of a total philosophical shift from star-driven team to a more equitable, low-profile side built around stalwarts like BWP, captain and midfield metronome Dax McCarty, playmaker Sacha Kljestan and ironman goalkeeper Luis Robles.

Will both 2015 MLS Cup finalists miss the playoffs?

For the first time in league history, both defending finalists could miss out on the playoffs the following year. As you’ll recall, the Timbers beat the Crew in Columbus last year, on two quick goals that held up when Kei Kamara got one for the home team in the 18th minute. After that, Caleb Porter’s side was favored to keep winning in 2016.

But the Timbers lost some key pieces, had some injuries and, while they sport the third-best home record in MLS, managed to go until now without an away win. A final chance to redeem themselves at the ‘Caps can avoid a winless season on the road. But any team that hasn’t won a single road game – or merely one – probably doesn’t belong in the playoffs.

As for the Crew, their season crumbled when Kamara publicly took shots at fellow star Federico Higuain early in the season when the Argentine denied him a penalty to complete Kamara’s hat trick. He was traded and the Crew have never been the same. They’re already out of contention for the playoffs, and with an 8-13-12 record, not exactly undeservedly so.

Leander Schaerlaeckens is a soccer columnist for Yahoo Sports. Follow him on Twitter @LeanderAlphabet.