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It doesn’t always align so cleanly, but this week, the biggest story in the college football world also happens to (unsurprisingly) align with the biggest story in sports betting. LSU heads to Alabama as 6-point underdogs with the over/under set at 65.
Here’s why I think the total is offering value.
LSU at Alabama (-6)
3:30 p.m. ET | CBS
For those of you following along on the Action App, I bet the over/under multiple times following Sunday’s opening line release. CG Technology released a total of 63, while the Westgate SuperBook opened with 64. Our Action Network projection for this titanic game is 69.
The Action Network will have this game covered top to bottom, but there are reasons to discuss the early wagers on the over. I have personally kidded in media spots that LSU and Alabama are basically now Big 12 schools.
Both teams feature high-caliber, lightning-paced offenses that minimize defensive efficiency and could tire any unprepared team by the second half. LSU had 46 rushing attempts and 42 passing attempts in their last game against Auburn and wore out the vaunted Tigers defenses by the end of the game.
Alabama and LSU rank second and third in passing offense due to two star quarterbacks in Tua Tagovailoa and Joe Burrow, meaning there should be plenty of passing on Saturday. LSU is the most efficient passing offense in the nation, so Burrow should have a big day even against a strong Alabama defense. LSU’s defense ranks 113th in opponent pass explosiveness, which infers that Mac Jones or Tagovailoa should have plenty of YACs to Henry Ruggs, Jerry Jeudy and DeVonta Smith.
If the market total gets closer to the projection of 69 there may be a buyback on the 63.5 and 64, but I expect this game to have plenty of scoring from the two best offenses in the nation.
The Pick: Over 65