Texans Deshaun Watson is not Dak Prescott 2.0

On the surface, there are many similarities between Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott and Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson. A rookie quarterback coming into an offense with a strong running game and a dominant number one receiver. These comparisons are purely speculative and not based off of statistical data.

The glaring difference between Dallas and Houston is the offensive line. Dallas has one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, while Houston does not. The Cowboys have great linemen in Tyron Smith, Travis Frederick and Zack Martin, Houston has Duane Brown.

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In pass protection, Houston allowed 32 sacks compared to Dallas allowing 28. Due to the difference in philosophies, Houston’s adjusted sack rate is 5.5 percent compared to 5.6 percent for Dallas. This is due to Houston throwing 583 passes last season compared to Dallas throwing only 483.

Where the real difference is seen is the running game. Dallas was second in the NFL in rushing with 2396 yards rushing with 149.8 per game. Houston ran for 1859 yards averaging 116.2 per game. A difference of 33.6 yards per game adds up over the course of a season, adding up to a total yards differential of 537 yards.

Looking more in depth at the rushing statistics, the difference in quality of the linemen is even more glaring.

Rushing around the left end, Dallas ranks sixth overall compared to Houston who ranks 14th. The only spot on the line where Houston outranks Dallas is running behind the left tackle. Houston ranks fifth overall in runs behind left tackle compared to Dallas how ranks 21st.

Running behind the guards and center is where Dallas had a lot of success last season and Houston did not. Dallas ranks second in the NFL with runs behind the guards and center while Houston ranks an average 17th. Running plays behind this area of the line are never pretty and Houston embodied that description entirely last season.

Looking at the runs behind the right tackle, Houston disappointed with a 24th overall ranking while Dallas impressed with being sixth in the NFL. Rushing around the right end, the gap is not as glaring. Houston ranks 16th in rushes around the right end compared to Dallas who ranks 10th.

What is most concerning about the Texans offensive line is the lack of success running the ball behind the guards and to the right side. Historically, the left side of the line is the pass blocking side and right side is the run blocking side. The fact that Houston has better rushing numbers on the left compared to the right is not good. Granted, Duane Brown is one of the best linemen in football, rushing numbers should be better on the right, not the left.

How does this affect Watson and Prescott?

With the strong running game for the Cowboys, Prescott was not asked to do as much due how effective Ezekiel Elliott was behind the offensive line. Lamar Miller had a great season for the Texans, but he was not Elliott by any means. The reasoning for each players success is a mix of Elliott being a better running back and Dallas having a better offensive line.

With 100 less passing plays, Prescott had less pressure on him to perform while utilizing his skill set to his full potential. Watson will not have that same luxury in Houston. While the rushing game is above average, the offensive line is not as skilled. There will be more pressure on Watson to make big plays himself and not rely on others.

Watson will have to make more plays himself for the offense to score compared to Prescott being able to hand it off to Elliott and let him make a big play. Miller will be able to make some plays on his own, but not at the consistent level that Elliott does. Without a reliable fallback plan, Watson will have to make plays on his own.

While Watson is a playmaker, asking a rookie to be a dynamic playmaker is just asking for trouble. Look at what happened to Robert Griffin III in Washington. He was a dynamic playmaker who got hit too much, suffered a catastrophic leg injury and he was never the same.

If Houston wants Watson to be the answer at quarterback longterm, they will have to ensure he does not take unnecessary hits. This means they will not look to over use his playmaking ability and keep him inside the pocket. Keeping Watson healthy is the key to his longterm success. An injured quarterback is a useless quarterback. An upright Watson isn’t only what Houston wants, it is what it needs. Expecting Watson to make consistent plays outside the pocket is foolish. The coaching staff will keep him in the pocket and lean on the running game to maintain his health.

Prescott enjoyed success as a rookie due to the overly successful rushing attack and the great offensive line. Watson, if he is chosen as the starter, will have an above average rushing attack and just an average offensive line. This combination is not the recipe for the level of success Prescott enjoyed. Expecting Watson to play well out of the gate is not an accurate expectation. If Watson is going to be successful, it will be further down the line when the offensive line gets upgraded and he has experience being a quarterback who passes more than Prescott.

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