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UNC in position to shake up playoff bracket – but maybe not for itself

North Carolina is positioned to strike a mighty blow that shakes up the College Football Playoff.

A mighty blow that could help several teams more than the Tar Heels themselves.

The CFP selection committee moved the Heels up in the rankings Tuesday – but perhaps not far enough for them to get into the playoff even with a potential victory Saturday over No. 1 Clemson. North Carolina is No. 10 in the new rankings, up from 14th – meaning that it would need to A) upset the Tigers and then B) look good enough in doing so that they vault six places.

Despite winning 11 straight games, North Carolina is the lowest-ranked one-loss team from a Power 5 conference. It also is ranked behind three two-loss teams. What is “holding them back,” in the words of CFP selection committee chairman Jeff Long, is a non-conference schedule that includes two FCS schools and a loss to a South Carolina team that ended the year 3-9.

Marquise Williams and the Tar Heels are on the outside of the playoff looking in.(AP)
Marquise Williams and the Tar Heels are on the outside of the playoff looking in.(AP)

Placing North Carolina at No. 10 almost imposes a glass ceiling on the Heels – or at least keeps them behind some key competitors.

In their path is another team playing for a conference title Saturday. Stanford, elevated to No. 7 this week, has another quality-win opportunity in the Pac-12 championship game against USC, which is No. 20 in the CFP Top 25.

One spot ahead of the Cardinal is Ohio State, whose work is done at 11-1. Unlike Stanford, the Buckeyes can do nothing to improve their résumé – but if Clemson and Stanford both lose, they could lobby for a second annual fortuitous 11th-hour jump.

Still, all of this presupposes that Clemson would fall out of the top four with an ACC championship game loss. That may be faulty thinking. As my colleague Dan Wetzel pointed out in this column, if this comes down to a pileup of one-loss teams Clemson might still have enough clout to stay in the bracket.

The top four may remain the top four, even if Clemson loses.

Which means the best chance for an outside crasher might be the least likely result of the weekend: Florida beating Alabama in the SEC championship game. The Gators are limping into this matchup while the Crimson Tide is rolling, and we could have a third straight season of the SEC West champ mauling the SEC East champ. But if the Gators somehow shock the world and the Tide, that would boot the SEC from the mix and create a lively squabble over who fills the void.

Even with two losses, Stanford might be the team best positioned to take a spot. The Cardinal have played a great schedule, with wins over teams ranked eighth and 20th, and losses to teams ranked 14th and 16th, and no games against FCS competition. Add another quality win to the résumé and Stanford could easily vault past Ohio State and the Big Ten championship game loser.

Still, the committee does seem to have a soft spot for the Big Ten. It ranks five teams from that conference in its top 15, two more than the next-closest leagues (the Big 12 and ACC each have three). Fact is, this is a top-heavy league with half its 14 members outside the top 50 in the Sagarin Ratings – but being good at the top clearly has its privileges.

That has allowed Big Ten loyalists to besmirch the résumé of SEC kingpin Alabama, which until Tuesday night didn’t have any wins over the CFP Top 25. That’s now changed, with LSU and Tennessee both moving into the rankings. At No. 18, Florida would be a third win over a top 25 team for the Tide.

But the Alabama résumé speaks loudly enough to the committee. Just beat Florida on Saturday and the Tide are not just in the field but perhaps the most feared team in the field. Lose to the Gators and the league is dispatched.

North Carolina has the more realistic task of upsetting the bracket. But even with an upset of the No. 1 team, it might not upset it enough to put the Tar Heels in – or knock Clemson out.

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