Advertisement

Survival Pool Advice: Will Week 13 finally be an unlucky one?

Need a friendly ear and some direct advice for your survival pool picks? Friend me on Facebook. Or hit me up on Twitter @kevinkaduk. Let’s ride the roller coaster together.

Resources: Yahoo survival pool pick distributionSurvivorGrid.com
Week 12’s biggest killer: Tampa Bay Buccaneers over Seattle Seahawks (2.07 percent of entries)
Week 12s biggest winner: New York Giants over Cleveland Browns (38.39 percent)
Total Week 12 eliminations: 3.01 percent of entries
Perfect entries remaining on Yahoo: 13,061

There’s uneventful and then there’s frozen in carbonite field we saw in Week 12.

Only 3.11 percent of Yahoo users bit the dust, most of them thanks to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beating the Seattle Seahawks in Florida. That one really shouldn’t have come as a surprise given the Seahawks’ injuries and travel schedule, but it was the only one that did any real damage.

The docile weekend put an end to a November that didn’t see any large-scale wipeouts. No week in the month saw more than 11 percent of users eliminated with Green Bay’s loss to Indianapolis in Week 9 being the biggest upset with just 7.16 percent of users.

Will we finally see some movement now the calendar has flipped to December? Week 13 could lead to a few eliminations seeing as how the Cleveland Browns are finally on their bye week after 12 straight weeks of losing and the San Francisco 49ers head to Chicago for a coinflip game against the Bears.

Let’s look at a few of the games you should be considering in Week 13:

Denver Broncos over Jacksonville Jaguars
You know the old saying: When the Browns, Niners and Bears are out, pick against the Jags, they’ll never leave you in doubt. Or something to that effect.

About 40 percent of Yahoo users are going with Denver on Sunday and that does require picking a road team. But we’re late enough in the season and know enough about all 32 teams that we can confidently start focusing on matchups instead of blanket survival pool rules.

I can see why the Broncos are such an attractive pick. They haven’t attracted any real attention from the survivor crowd this year; their highest frequency came with 15 percent of the pool successfully picking them over the Chargers in Week 8. Plus, the 2-9 Jaguars have been just plain bad and the 7-4 Broncos are in desperate need of wins in the tight AFC West race (and overall playoff sprint) after that late loss to the Chiefs on Sunday night. If they don’t win here, they’re going to be in a lot of trouble.

It’s hard to imagine that defense won’t punish Blake Bortles from start to finish. But keep an eye on Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian’s status. He didn’t practice on Wednesday with a sprained foot and the Jaguars did a passable imitation of a good defense in the first half against the Bills last Sunday. It’s one thing to go with a rock-solid pick on the road; it’s another to go with an offense that practiced with starting quarterback uncertainty half of the week.

New England Patriots over Los Angeles Rams
It should go without saying, but if you’re one of the five people* who haven’t picked the Patriots yet, stop reading the article and GO PICK THE PATRIOTS for guaranteed entry to Week 14. Yes, the Patriots still have four games after this one, but I don’t see a single lock worth saving them for.

*It may seem like five people, but there’s actually at least 13 percent (~1,600 users) of the 13,000 people left in Yahoo pools who have held off on the Patriot so far because that’s how many had selected them by Wednesday afternoon.

Oakland Raiders over Buffalo Bills
Speaking of a good AFC West team that hasn’t been picked frequently, the 9-2 Oakland Raiders have been a virtual ghost on the survival pool picks distribution list. Their highest frequency was just 2.59 percent in a Week 2 loss against the Atlanta Falcons. So almost everyone still has the Raiders available on their boards.

Playing in a tough division has limited the Raiders’ appeal despite their great year. But now here we are with five weeks to go and the chances to pick the possible top seed in the AFC are dwindling. The Bills present a good chance here in Week 12 as does a visit from the Colts on Christmas Eve. Either game is going to come with some risk as the Bills and Colts aren’t exactly bottomfeeders, but I think you’re fine going with the Raiders for either game. (Personally, I’d keep the Raiders in my pocket for the Colts’ opportunity as the pickings in Week 16 might prove slim if you get that far.)

Green Bay Packers over Houston Texans
I’m really kind of puzzled as to why only ~10 percent of picks are going with the Packers this weekend. I know Aaron Rodgers and Co. haven’t been what they’ve been in years past, but they’re coming off a good road win over the Philadelphia Eagles and they’re set to face a Houston Texans team that has score 16 offensive touchdowns all season. Last week I went with the Saints over the Rams based on one simple question: Do you really think Drew Brees is going to lose at home against Case Keenum? Same rule applies here: No way is Rodgers going to lose a December game at Lambeau to Brock Osweiler.

If you don’t pick the Packers here, they’re either going to sit on your shelf the final four weeks or you’ll have to play them at Chicago or at Detroit. I’d rather pick the home game.

Seattle Seahawks over Carolina Panthers
About nine percent of people are picking the Seahawks over the Panthers and I think that’s another head scratcher. Not only have these two teams played a lot of close games the past few years, but the Seahawks have been banged up, which caused them to lose at Tampa Bay last Sunday. The Los Angeles Rams come calling to Seattle in two weeks, so why not just wait for then?

My pick: Green Bay over Houston

Who are you picking? Let me know in the comments below!

Aaron Rodgers led the Packers to a win on Monday night (AP)
Aaron Rodgers led the Packers to a win on Monday night (AP)