Survival Pool Advice: Week 17 presents a giant final hurdle

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Resources: Yahoo survival pool pick distribution • SurvivorGrid.com
Week 16’s biggest killer: San Diego losing to Cleveland (49.84 percent)
Week 16’s biggest winner: Green Bay over Minnesota (6.66 percent)
Total Week 16 eliminations: 76.32 percent
Perfect entries remaining on Yahoo: 2,489

If you’re reading this, congratulations! You avoided the dual gut punches delivered by the Cleveland Browns and Jacksonville Jaguars winning on Christmas Eve. Those two upsets were part of the biggest elimination weekend all season: 76.32 percent of entries in Yahoo survival leagues were sent packing. More people were eliminated in Week 16 than Weeks 10-15 combined.

But don’t get too cocky. While you only have one weekend to go before reaching paydirt, Week 17 is going to be the toughest pick yet. Indeed, making this one final selection is not for the faint of heart. If you’ve made it this far, you’ve already used up 15 teams, including most, if not all, of the league’s best teams. What’s more, Week 17 is always one of the most unpredictable weeks because so many things have already been decided. Ten of these final 16 games don’t mean a single thing in regard to playoff position and only one — Detroit vs. Green Bay — has playoff implications for both squads.

With that in mind, let’s look at a few of your options with one caveat: Make sure you’re continually tracking who’s slated to play and who isn’t. The last thing you want to do is lock in a squad on Thursday only to discover on Sunday that the star quarterback will sit and wait for 2017.

Indianapolis Colts over Jacksonville Jaguars
This is the top pick on Yahoo right now with about 33 percent of entries riding with Indy. This game is completely meaningless for both sides outside of draft order. The Colts blew out a bad Vikings team in Minnesota two weeks ago and would seem to be a good pick. However, the signs of life shown by the Jaguars against the Titans in last week’s upset is a bit worrisome. Both squads have had disappointing seasons on different levels and I’m not sure which might be more prone to roll over in a throwaway game. Everything about this screams “proceed with caution” if you’re set on the Colts.

Pittsburgh Steelers over Cleveland Browns
A few weeks ago, this looked like a lock to be an easy Week 17 ticket for those who didn’t pick the Steelers the first time they played the Browns. But that was before the Steelers locked up the AFC North and the AFC’s third seed with a win over the Ravens on Christmas, rendering this game completely meaningless. The Steelers have already announced that Ben Roethlisberger, Leveon Bell and Antonio Brown will sit, so there’s no way you can go to war with the Steelers. (And while it’d be a lot of fun to win the final week by picking RG3 and the Browns on the road, I don’t know anyone who’s actually crazy enough to do that.)

Kansas City Chiefs over San Diego Chargers
These two teams opened the 2016 season with the Chiefs’ furious late comeback at Arrowhead saving 13.3 percent of the pool from succumbing that first week. Now Kansas City presents an interesting choice in Week 17 as they need a win over the 5-10 Chargers (+ a Raiders loss at Denver) to secure a first-round bye in the playoffs. Picking the Chiefs against a depleted Chargers team that has lost four straight is a strong play, especially considering that a Derek Carr-less team losing at Denver is a very real possibility.

Atlanta Falcons over New Orleans Saints
The Falcons need a win to secure the second seed and a first-round bye in the NFC. This is maybe the biggest slam dunk of the day, but 18.63 percent of entries picked Atlanta over Los Angeles in Week 14 and another 54.96 percent picked them the next week over the 49ers. So if you’re one of the lucky few, who still have the Falcons available, this should be an easy pick. If not, thank the Falcons for getting you here.

Seattle Seahawks over San Francisco 49ers
The 9-5-1 Seahawks are still available to a good chunk of players and they need a win over the lowly 49ers if they want to steal the second seed if the 10-5 Falcons lose to the Saints. The Seahawks are playing at the same time as the Falcons, which ensures the Seahawks will at least be playing for something from the start (as opposed to having a Falcons win on the books before their game even starts). Also worth noting: Even if the Falcons win in a rout, the Seahawks need to play all the way to the end if they want to secure the third seed. A Seattle loss would give that slot to the winner of Green Bay/Detroit on Sunday night.

Green Bay Packers over Detroit Lions
It’s kind of crazy to think we’re even considering picking a road team in a divisional game against an opponent that can secure its own playoff spot with a win. But this is Aaron Rodgers and the streaking Packers we’re talking about. This is also Detroit we’re talking about. The Lions have won with smoke and mirrors all season — they trailed both the Jaguars and Bears in the fourth quarter at home before coming back to win — and there’s no way they’re going to beat Rodgers for the division title. And no, you shouldn’t worry that both teams will conspire to tie since a tie gets both into the playoffs. Can you imagine the outrage if they did?

My pick: Falcons if you still have them, then Seahawks over 49ers, then Chiefs over Chargers, then Packers over Lions. Best of luck to everyone!

Who are you picking? Let me know in the comments below!