Survival Pool Advice: Don't fall for the road trap in Week 14

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Resources: Yahoo survival pool pick distribution • SurvivorGrid.com
Week 13’s biggest killer: New Orleans Saints over Detroit Lions (6.04 percent of entries)
Week 13’s biggest winner: Denver Broncos over Jacksonville Jaguars (32.78 percent)
Total Week 13 eliminations: 10.06 percent
Perfect entries remaining on Yahoo: 11,029

We’re running out of time for survival football to have an extinction-level event.

Week 13 was another veritable cakewalk with only 10 percent of entries being wiped out. It would have been even less than that, but 6 percent of people doubted the Lions could win down in New Orleans. I wasn’t a big fan of that pick given the Saints’ defense, but far be it from me to question people who don’t buy into the Lions. I’ve won more than a couple of survival weeks in my day picking against them.

Anyway, there are just four weeks left, so onto Week 14 and some of the games you should be considering as Sunday afternoon approaches …

Lions over the Chicago Bears
If we have a huge elimination this week, it’s going to be delivered in Detroit by the Monsters of the Midway. Over 60 percent of Yahoo users are going with the Lions. The 3-9 Bears won the team’s first matchup in Chicago earlier this season by causing a lot of problems for Matthew Stafford, but a lot of things have changed since then. The Bears were healthier, the Lions hadn’t found their stride and the game was being played in Chicago.

There’s still some danger in this pick, though. The Bears haven’t played terribly since Matt Barkley took over and running back Jordan Howard has proven capable of carrying the ball and controlling the clock. Plus the Lions are just three weeks removed from needing a late comeback to beat the Jaguars at home. Still, the Lions are 8-4 and still have a shot at a first-round playoff bye.

Also worth noting: The Lions have won 6 of their last 7 against the Bears.

Atlanta at Los Angeles
Cincinnati at Cleveland
Minnesota at Jacksonville

Three of the next four most-selected games are all road games and they’re all problematic.

Nineteen percent of picks are for the Falcons to win in Los Angeles. This is your classic “should I save them?” pick. The Falcons should win easily, seeing as how the Rams have lost 7 of their last 8 with their only victory being a 9-6 triumph over the New York Jets in Week 10. But the Falcons also have a home date with the lowly 49ers next weekend so if you hate picking road teams AND have another good option this week, you may want to avoid.

The Bengals travel to Cleveland to play the Browns, but many of you may have already picked Cincinnati the first time these teams played. Plus the weather in Cleveland is supposed to be terrible and you never know what can happen. The Bengals trounced the Eagles last week, which is promising to those of us who think this is where the 2016 Browns get their one win.

Finally, the Vikings winning on the road in Jacksonville? Do. Not. Want. Under what circumstances would you ever pick a team that’s lost six of its last seven to win on the road? Just because the Vikings started off 5-0 doesn’t make this one OK.

Indianapolis Colts over Houston Texans
Last week I told you that there’s no way Brock Osweiler would beat Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau and I came away right. This week, I’m telling you the same thing: There’s no way Osweiler wins a shootout against Andrew Luck in Indianapolis. If you think the meteor is finally coming to hit everyone who’s lining up with the Lions, this is a fantastic spot to hang out and watch it all happen.

My pick: Lions over Bears.

Who are you picking this week? Let me know in the comments below.