Survival Football Advice: The best play is for the birds in Seattle

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Resources: Yahoo survival pool pick distribution • SurvivorGrid.com
Week 3’s biggest killer: New York Jets over Miami (19.7 percent)
Week 3’s biggest success: Green Bay over Cincinnati (27.56 percent)
My picks so far: Buffalo – Oakland – New England

If you’re reading this, I assume you survived one of the craziest survival Sundays in recent memory.

Just over 40 percent of the Yahoo Survival Football field bit the dust thanks to misplaced confidence in a Miami Dolphins team visiting the New York Jets and a Pittsburgh Steelers team that again played up to their reputation on the road and lost to the Bears. Throw in the sizable portions who rolled the dice with the Broncos on the road in Buffalo and the Ravens playing in London and you can see why we often advise against staking your entry on a visiting team.

Then again, huge home favorites were no picnic either. Those of us who picked the New England Patriots are always going to remember that incredible Tom Brady-Brandin Cooks touchdown that saved our hides and players who picked the Packers are still singing odes to the heroics of Aaron Rodgers. Had the Patriots and Packers not pulled through, less than 10 percent of our pool would be left and I’d be writing for almost no one. Survival football, what a game.

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Anyway, we’re still here and we’re onto week 4.

The Seattle Seahawks are the overwhelming favorite and are being selected by almost 40 percent of users to beat the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. I’ve looked at this week from a number of different angles and I can’t see how I can go with any other team than the Seahawks.

The Seahawks are 1-2 and didn’t look great in their lone victory, a 12-9 home victory over the 49ers that had a large portion of players sweating in Week 2. Nevertheless, they are still two touchdown favorites, they’re riding an 11-game home winning streak against AFC opponents and Colts quarterback Jacoby Brissett has never started a road game before. You think he’s going to go into arguably the league’s toughest environment and pull out a victory?

Taking a look at Seattle’s remaining schedule should only make you feel more confident in your pick. They won’t be favored as much in any game as this Colts contest and the other possibilities provide plenty of room to doubt.

At home against Houston in Week 8? Doesn’t do much for me, plus Philadelphia hosting San Francisco will probably be the play. On the road in Week 12 against a Niners team that almost beat them in Seattle? Nope. On the road in Jacksonville two weeks after that? Nope. There are home games against the Rams and Cardinals in Weeks 15 and 17, but it’s doubtful the Seahawks will be as favored as much in those games as they are against the Colts.

Two weeks ago, both Oakland and Seattle were overwhelming favorites and I advised everyone to take the Raiders because of their diminished future value. If you fell in line with me, it’s time to do the same with Seattle in Week 4.

Other thoughts: Two other bird teams — Arizona and Atlanta — are big favorites at home this weekend and present interesting opportunities. I just don’t have much faith in the 1-2 Cardinals to take the risk over a 49ers team that’s playing hard for Kyle Shanahan. As for the Falcons, if you like them against the Bills this week, you should also like them against the Dolphins at home two weeks from now … The Packers and Cowboys are two of the best teams in the NFC, but have you checked out their future value? Neither are really as great as they should be. That said, I’d still like to have both in my pocket going forward so I’m not going to try and force anything, especially with the banged-up Packers playing on a short week against the Bears … That said, if you have multiple picks in a pool, you might want to consider spending a few on the Cowboys over the Rams in Arlington. The adjusted value provides a good payoff should the Colts spring the upset in Seattle … I’m a little surprised to see that the Patriots are only drawing 5 percent of the picks over the Panthers considering that around 75 percent of Yahoo players still have New England available to them. Then again, it’s probably a good idea to let Bill Belichick figure out his problems on defense before riding with the Pats … Up for this week’s “funishment” is Yahoo fantasy expert Scott Pianowski, who promises to shave his head should the Seahawks fall short. Picture in this column next week if it happens …

(Amber Matsumoto/Yahoo Sports)