2021 Super Bowl betting: All-time great Patrick Mahomes and his passing props

Joe Garza
·2 min read

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the best football player on the planet.

None of the all-time greats of any of the major American pro leagues — Tom Brady, Michael Jordan, LeBron James, Barry Bonds, Mike Trout, whoever — can match Mahomes’ success through their age-25 seasons.

Mahomes is 38-8 in the regular season, was an MVP and made the AFC title game in 2018, won the Super Bowl in 2019, and is in the Super Bowl again.

His playoff numbers are even more fascinating. He’s 6-1 and his average margin of victory is 13.2 points. He’s thrown 17 touchdowns to two interceptions, and has four additional rushing touchdowns.

The oddity? Mahomes has passed for more than 300 yards just twice in the postseason and his career-high passing yardage in a playoff game is 325 yards, which he accomplished against the Bills two weeks ago in the AFC championship game.

So what’s Mahomes’ passing yardage total at BetMGM for Super Bowl LV? It’s a pretty sharp 329.5 yards.

The Bucs have a stout run defense, and the Chiefs aren’t great at traditional rushing. What Kansas City does do effectively is run jet sweeps and reverses with its speedy receivers to keep defenses off-balance.

But you can’t run those plays very often, so it’s safe to assume Mahomes will be dropping back to pass plenty, perhaps even relying on a shorter passing game to counteract the Bucs’ pressure. BetMGM’s number for Mahomes’ passing attempts is 41.5 and that is an indicator of what can be expected. In the first matchup against the Bucs in Week 12, the Chiefs passed on 80 percent of early downs and Mahomes threw it 49 times in a 27-24 win.

Mahomes has attempted 40 or more passes 20 times in his career, including the postseason. In those 20 games, he has passed for more than 300 yards 14 times. And of those 20 games, 10 occurred this season, when Mahomes took on even more responsibility for his team’s success.

The Super Bowl could resemble the Chiefs’ 2019 Week 13 matchup against the Ravens, when Mahomes attempted 53 passes for 377 yards in a 27-24 Kansas City win.

The numbers at BetMGM seem to be right on, but still, we are looking at both Mahomes overs. The Chiefs’ success in the big game will rely on their generational talent doing what he does best.

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