Strikeouts key to finding closer value

We rank our closers incorrectly. Projecting saves for guys who have the job is a fool’s errand because there is a poor correlation between team wins and team saves.

Consider that last year, the AL East champion Blue Jays, winner of 93 games, ranked 27th with 40 wins of three runs or less. The Phillies who led the majors in losses with 99 had 42 of these wins that broadly met the save criteria.

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Instead of projecting saves, we should just look for the guys with the job who are best in strikeouts minus innings. This is very different than our stat last week with starting pitchers: (K-BB)/IP. The reason is that these relievers don’t pitch enough for there to be a strong correlation between (K-BB)/IP and ERA, especially. And I’m looking more for help with Ks from my closers than help with averages — though of course the averages often are driven by strikeouts.

By looking only at the projected strikeouts that exceed the innings pitched, the goal is to transform as many innings for my starters as possible; for every K over IP, you earn a boost of a K/9 for nine innings. This adds up fast. And if done correctly, it can turn a fantasy staff near average in strikeout efficiency to one that’s good.

Lets’s look at the chart. I’ve used projected Ks and innings. Our projections of course are Yahoo’s but no matter which you use this particular aspect of the projection will be in a pretty narrow range.

Closers Ranked by Projected SO Minus IP | PointAfter

Aroldis Champman, the king of this statistic, is suspended for the first month. So let’s look at the second-tier grouping of relievers who dominate in strikeouts. That’s Kenley Jansen, Cody Allen and David Robertson. Assume you target two of them and Jansen is too expensive so your relievers are Allen and Robertson, a combined 48 Ks over innings pitched. Take them away and these relievers still have a very solid K/9 of exactly one per inning but ALSO boosting the K/9 of other pitchers on your staff by 1.0/9 (huge) for 432 innings.

Since we pay for strikeouts in our drafting/bidding of starting pitchers, you can EFFECTIVELY and quite cheaply turn two middling starters in Ks who limit walks and even hard-contact (as we outlined in an earlier piece here) into top 20 strikeout assets. 

Best of all, the teams that do target more expensive strikeouts with their starting pitching are paying retail for the K benefit that you are getting wholesale because closers in this era of fantasy tend to be discounted. The teams who pay heavily for the strikeout starters are probably going to go most cheaply with their closers and thus are more likely to get guys like Jonathan Papelbon, Huston Street and Santiago Casilla who are actually underwater in K-IP.

In the Tout Wars mixed league draft, Allen cost the 86th pick and Robertson the 110th. So they are gettable back-to-back around rounds 8 and 9. But to convey how irrational even the expert market is with this hidden value of closers, consider that Mark Melancon — one of our least attractive closers given his struggles in punch outs — went 79th.

Even Wade Davis, who is generally the first closer off the board and was once more in Tout Wars, should not be going over Jansen given that Jansen with his strikeouts is projected to impact about 100 more innings in the manner we’ve outlined.

Via the same Tout Wars link, we can see the auction this past weekend was similar. Melancon took more money ($15) than Allen ($14) and Davis and Jansen took the same amount ($21). Note that Robertson went for $17, as high as I’ve seen. Corey Schwartz of MLB.com did what I would aim to do by getting both Jansen and Robertson, expected to be a combined 51 Ks minus innings. Kershaw ($38) is projected to be just 25 Ks-IP so I’m getting twice the benefit here and possibly as good an ERA impact. Kershaw wins WHIP over these two I will stipulate but 80 saves are worth way more than 20 wins and Robertson and Jansen combined went for the same $38. Plus Schwartz paid as much as anyone will make you. (And remember there is huge inflation here too with 15 teams instead of 12 chasing the same players.) 

You can plainly see the buys in our chart. But the closers to avoid if you rank them this way are not shown. The guy you want least is Brad Ziegler (minus-30 Ks-IP, putting you 270 inning IN THE HOLE). Melancon (minus-8 or minus-72 innings) we’ve mentioned, along with Papelbon (minus-7 Ks) and Street (minus-3 Ks). But you also want to pass on David Hernandez (minus-5 Ks) unless you have premium strikeout starters. And note that Glen Perkins (plus-1 K) is cheap for a reason.

If you listen to my Breakfast Table podcast with Scott Pianowski you’ve heard me saying Jeurys Familia is a relief bargain. But that was wrong advice. While Familia is an elite closer in reality, he’s not dominant enough to warrant paying the current market price. You are better off waiting for Robertson or even the even more undervalued A.J. Ramos.