Starting Pitcher Shuffle Up: The Mike Minor Problem and updated rest-of season values

The big one, the granddaddy, the Starting Pitcher Shuffle Up. The prices are unscientific and meant to show relative pockets of value. Players at the same cost are considered even, and if two players are separated by a small amount, don’t flip out over it.

Assume a 5x5 scoring format, as always. And what’s happened to this point is merely an audition — we’re trying to judge what happens from here on out.

Remember the golden rule — no pitcher gains or loses value simply because you roster him.

I am not ranking the injured arms — you can drink as little or as much of the injury optimism as you want.

The Big Ticket Items

$37 Justin Verlander

$34 Max Scherzer

$33 Gerrit Cole

$32 Chris Sale

$30 Jacob deGrom

$30 Blake Snell

$29 Trevor Bauer

Verlander was an easy No. 1 rank for me and although I don’t think I can take him third overall in this week’s Second Chance draft, I haven’t ruled it out yet, either. If you want to comp him to Scherzer (who I am not down on at all), remember Verlander has the better park, better offensive support, much better defense. And that Astros special sauce can’t be discounted — Verlander’s Houston stats are absurd (2.30 ERA, 0.84 WHIP — are you kidding me? — through 50 starts.)

Could be your ace, but a better No. 2.

$27 Walker Buehler

$26 Patrick Corbin

$25 Carlos Carrasco

$25 Stephen Strasburg

$25 Luis Castillo

$25 Clayton Kershaw

$25 Zack Greinke

$25 Aaron Nola

$25 Noah Syndergaard

$24 Jose Berrios

$23 Chris Paddack

$23 Hyun-Jin Ryu

I wanted to go higher on Ryu, I really did. Watching him is as relaxing as it gets (assuming you’re not screwed by the television snafu in Los Angeles). And heck, maybe I’ll draft him proactively this weekend in the NFBC. But the Dodgers are one of those teams overflowing with starting pitching, and they essentially know they’re already in the playoffs. Ryu has a history of being a high-maintenance pitcher, and the team won’t hesitate to back him up here and there if anything hiccups.

Greinke got crushed on opening day in an unfair assignment, a daytime game at Chavez Ravine with the ball carrying like mad. Since then, he’s made 10 starts: 2.12 ERA, WHIP well under one, seven walks, 64 strikeouts. He’s into the Ibanez All-Star part of his career, the boring but efficient veteran. And remember, Arizona is no longer a park of peril.

Syndergaard is starting to remind me of Strasburg, madly talented and usually purchased with upside in mind, but usually a trifle-bit disappointing. With the stuff these guys have, you wonder why they’re not a half-tier higher in their results, a little more consistent.

Worth knowing their schedule by heart

$20 Caleb Smith

$20 Shane Bieber

$20 Charlie Morton

$19 Jack Flaherty

$19 Matthew Boyd

$18 Mike Soroka

$17 Zack Wheeler

$15 Domingo German

$15 David Price

$14 German Marquez

$14 Masahiro Tanaka

$14 Luke Weaver

$14 Kyle Hendricks

$14 Cole Hamels

With Marquez, it comes down to a simple question — why run uphill if you don’t have to? I know he’s a good real-life pitcher. I know he’s a potential Cy Young contender if he ever leaves Colorado. But when it comes to our roto responsibilities, we’re not trying to work away from park effects, we’re turning into the skid. We have to accept the extreme realities. Very few pitchers have ever lived in the Colorado environment and had multiple seasons of usefulness. This is not an emotional roller coaster I am eager to ride on.

I realize projecting wins is something of a fool’s errand, but even with the Marlins playing better of late, Smith is still swimming against the tide on that lousy club. That takes a couple of bucks off his price. I’m still firmly in his corner.

You basically trust them more than you don’t

$13 Brandon Woodruff

$13 Lucas Giolito

$12 Frankie Montas

$12 Madison Bumgarner

$12 Robbie Ray

$12 Mike Minor

$11 Yusei Kikuchi

$10 Joe Musgrove

$10 Jon Lester

$10 Max Fried

$10 Miles Mikolas

$10 Jake Odorizzi

$10 Jose Quintana

$10 Brad Peacock

Minor’s season is reasonably legit, but I’m not fully signing for that 2.64 ERA — FIP pushes it to 3.24. The WHIP is strong, not elite. Last year’s 4.18 ERA might be a reasonable place to start your rest-of-season projection.

Arlington hasn’t shown its teeth yet, and although Minor has tamed the park fairly well since the beginning of 2018, that is never a bet I’m going to backline. Look what Cole Hamels and Martin Perez have turned into since leaving Arlington. The weather is going to warm up, the jetstream is going to push out some cheap homers. We see it every year. In a way I’ll miss this extreme park when the team shifts indoors next year, but I know a lot of MLB players can’t stand the oppressive heat. It’s a lousy take for fans, too — it’s grossly hot for most of the schedule.

I’m lukewarm on Bumgarner already, and if he gets traded to a neutral or worse park, I’m running away as fast as I can (which, to be fair, is not very fast).

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Solid depth but you need multiples ahead of them

$9 Mike Foltynewicz

$9 Rich Hill

$9 Yu Darvish

$9 Martin Perez

$9 Matt Strahm

$8 Kenta Maeda

$8 Zach Eflin

$8 Sonny Gray

$7 Jake Arrieta

$7 Eduardo Rodriguez

$7 Marcus Stroman

$7 Rick Porcello

$7 Marco Gonzales

$6 Steven Matz

$6 Jerad Eickhoff

$6 Julio Teheran

$6 Jordan Lyles

$6 Spencer Turnbull

$6 Joey Lucchesi

$6 Kevin Gausman

I could see Perez graduating a tier in short order. He always had a pedigree and Arlington is such an unfair home. I wish I had connected these obvious dots more often in the spring; I have a ton of Minnesota pitching shares, but I had to trade into my Perez portfolio, rather than get it more or less for free in March.

At least some plausible upside

$5 Zach Davies

$5 Corbin Martin

$5 Griffin Canning

$5 Trevor Williams

$4 Jon Gray

$4 Tyler Mahle

$4 Chris Archer

$4 Chris Bassitt

$4 Jalen Beeks

$4 Trevor Richards

$4 Chase Anderson

$4 Michael Pineda

$4 Aaron Sanchez

The rest of the list

$3 J.A. Happ

$3 Kyle Gibson

$3 Wade Miley

$3 CC Sabathia

$3 Dallas Keuchel

$3 Mike Fiers

$2 Lance Lynn

$2 Jeff Samardzija

$2 Pablo Lopez

$2 Gio Gonzalez

$2 Kyle Freeland

$2 Reynaldo Lopez

$1 Tanner Roark

Keuchel is going to need some amp-up time after he signs, and he’s the type of pitcher who desperately needs a pitcher-friendly environment. It’s natural to want to expect the best from this type of player after he signs, but I’m keeping my expectations grounded. It’s a shame Houston is so stocked at pitcher, that’s the ideal landing spot by far. At Keuchel’s best, he can induce weak contact, get grounders, field his position well. But does he miss enough bats to survive in the current context?

Injured Pitchers — No Ranks

Inj James Paxton

Inj Mike Clevinger

Inj Tyler Glasnow

Inj Andrew Heaney

Inj Luis Severino

Inj Jameson Taillon

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