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Spread Options: Dr. Saturday's Week 14 picks against the spread
.500 is not in the cards. After a 9-1 Week 12 we had a 4-6 Week 13. Our record heading into the final week of the season is 58-68-4. We’re not going 10-0 this week.
Western Michigan vs. Ohio (+17), 7 p.m. ET FRIDAY: We’re not calling for the upset, but think Ohio will hang with Western Michigan just enough to cover the number. Ohio’s defense gives up less than 22 points per game and hasn’t given up more than 28 since a Week 1 multiple-OT loss to Texas State. If Western Michigan wins Friday night, there should be no waiting on Sunday to send the Broncos to the Cotton Bowl at 14-0.
Washington (-7.5) vs. Colorado, 9 p.m. ET FRIDAY: This game may be the most straightforward of all the Championship Week games. Washington is No. 1 in the country in turnover margin while Colorado is No. 8. The winner of the turnover margin is going to win this game. And Washington is better at protecting the football. The Huskies have turned it over 12 times in 2016 while Colorado has 16 turnovers.
Kansas State at TCU (OVER 52.5), Noon ET: Kansas State’s offense isn’t sexy, but it’s getting the job done. The Wildcats are No. 48 in scoring offense, though we note that’s seventh in the Big 12. TCU is No. 40 (fifth in the conference) and both average over 32 points a game. When you have an over/under near 50 in the Big 12, take it.
Temple (+2.5) vs. Navy, Noon ET: Upset alert. Temple is one of the most-improved teams throughout the course of the season. Though we also don’t want to take away anything from a Navy team that’s been insanely efficient on offense throughout the month of November. The Midshipmen are No. 15 in the country in yards per play (6.6), ahead of USC, Florida State, Texas Tech, Texas A&M and others. Who says option offenses aren’t efficient?
Temple is at 6.0 yards per play. And given Temple’s defensive prowess over the last few weeks, we think the Owls have enough to win the AAC.
Oklahoma State at Oklahoma (OVER 76), 12:30 p.m. ET: The average Oklahoma game this season has 76 total points. The average Oklahoma State game has 67 points. If you put the offenses together, you’re at 85 points.
Yes, that’s incredibly rudimentary and not-at-all a reliable way to dissect a game, but there’s nothing from either defense we’ve seen so far in 2016 that leads us to believe this will be a defensive struggle. First one to 40 or even 50 wins the game. We wouldn’t be surprised if the fourth quarter isn’t underway when the SEC Championship goes on the air at 4 p.m. ET.
Baylor at West Virginia (-17.5), 3:30 p.m. ET: Do you really think Baylor is going to be competitive on Saturday? The Bears have looked hapless over the last five weeks and it’s hard not to think the team is counting down the end to the season. Given the dearth of bowl teams in the Big 12, the difference between a 7-5 Baylor and a 6-6 one for bowl selection purposes isn’t significant. And given the way Baylor has played recently, the Bears probably know that.
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San Diego State at Wyoming (OVER 61), 7:45 p.m. ET: The best running back matchup of the weekend happens in the Mountain West. SDSU RB Donnel Pumphrey can move to No. 2 all-time in rush yards with a 100-yard game while Wyoming RB Brian Hill is the country’s No. 4 rusher in 2016. The first matchup between the two ended 34-33 as Pumphrey was contained. We’re not sure Wyoming will hold Pumphrey down for a second time.
Wisconsin vs. Penn State (+3), 8 p.m. ET: The battle for the Rose Bowl should be a close game. And we’re going with Penn State given the uncertainty at quarterback for Wisconsin. Wisconsin quarterback Alex Hornibrook left Saturday’s game vs. Minnesota with a head injury and is questionable to start vs. the Nittany Lions. Meanwhile, Penn State QB Trace McSorley has quietly become one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the country.
Clemson (-10.5) vs. Virginia Tech, 8 p.m. ET: Virginia Tech does a good job against the pass. Though the Hokies haven’t faced a dynamic set of weapons like Clemson’s Mike Williams, Deon Cain and Jordan Leggett yet this year.
If Virginia Tech focuses too much on the Clemson pass threat, QB Deshaun Watson and RB Wayne Gallman are poised to strike on the ground. Clemson goes as Gallman goes and he needs just 57 yards for another 1,000-yard season. If Gallman has a big day, it’s lights out for the Hokies.
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Nick Bromberg is the assistant editor of Dr. Saturday on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at nickbromberg@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
