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Splitsville: Gray's big day

Jonas Gray, flash in the pan? (Getty)
Jonas Gray, flash in the pan? (Getty)

Let’s see if a model will help us forecast the likelihood of Jonas Gray being a flash in the pan versus a star.

I’ve set the single-game thresholds at 175 yards rushing and three rushing TDs. Of course, Gray had 199 and four last week. That gives us 18 names since 2000: Shawn Alexander, Mike Anderson, Tiki Barber, Marshall Faulk, Arian Foster, Eddie George, Gray, Jerome Harrison, Larry Johnson, Julius Jones, Jamal Lewis, Doug Martin, Alfred Morris, Adrian Peterson (three times), Clinton Portis, Fred Taylor (twice), LaDainian Tomlinson (four times).

So how many of the 18 were flashes in the pan? I’ll give you Anderson, Harrison, Jones, Martin (I know it’s early but I’m calling it). The other guys were/are good. So that’s four pan flashes of 18 or a 22% chance that Gray is the stiff most thought he was. In other words, odds are about 3.5-to-1 in favor of Gray being some degree of good (which would make him a top projected back for the remainder of the season).

We could say it’s less because Gray is playing for a coach that changes his game plan dramatically from game to game (though many coaches do this to some degree or have game flow do it for them) or, conversely, we can say this is unfair to Gray since his day was so much better than most of the others. I say, let’s throw all this out and stick with the simple model. I also believe the Patriots' signing of LeGarrette Blount is mere noise.

Remember, this does not mean the model is right if Gray turns out to be good, or wrong if he doesn’t. It's just trying to objectively assess the probability of an outcome.

Gray does have an undrafted, practice-squad pedigree, but that’s honestly of little concern at running back.

The more interesting question is whether Gray having such an epic day in his first start increases the probability that he’s the real deal. In other words, does the power of the data, no matter how small, make it somehow more meaningful as a predictive tool? I can’t find a good sourced answer but, of course it does. Imagine some ridiculous extreme where a first-time running back scored a touchdown on every carry. Would you still say you need to see more? So my inclination is that such a strong showing in one of his first showings increases the odds that he’s actually a good player, but I have no idea how much. So let’s just ignore that, too.

And no, you can’t quite put Blount in here by including playoff games, which are only the most important games. He went for 166 yards and four TDs against the Colts last January. If we resolve that’s close enough and give it to him, that’s five busts out of 19 and reduces the probability of Gray actually being good to about 3-to-1.

I prefer rate stats not totals and thus not point totals when assessing defensive matchups. That means that I am not really a fan of the “fantasy points against” stats, though I did provide that here one week this year. My problem is that touchdowns are mostly random events. Yardage that’s the result of volume is not as bettable as rate stats. Volume is generally merely a product of game flow and thus another uncertain thing to bet on. I’d rather attack in matchups the weaker defenses measured only by yards per pass attempt allowed and yards allowed per rush.

So pass defenses to exploit with QBs and receivers this week are (worst first, opponent this week in parentheses): CHI (opponent is TB), ATL (CLE), NYG (DAL), NO (BAL), STL (SD), JAX (IND), TB (CHI), NYJ (BUF).

Pass defenses to avoid (best first/opponent in parentheses): DEN (MIA), MIA (DEN), SF (WAS), CIN (HOU), CLE (ATL), KC (OAK), BUF (NYJ), SEA (ARI).

Similarly, most favorable rushing defenses to face: NYG (DAL), KC (OAK), IND (JAX), CLE (ATL), GB (MIN), DAL (NYG), SD (STL), CAR (off).

Least favorable: DET (NE), DEN (MIA), BAL (NO), NYJ (BUF), ARI (SEA), SEA (ARI), OAK (KC), MIA (DEN).

These are bettable only for tie-breaking purposes (players in about the same tier) only. You don’t move players up or down a tier based on an opponent matchup because it’s well established that offenses generally control outcomes (about 60-70%).

If you’re looking for a defense to play for defensive scoring this week, Denver is on a lot of waiver wires and Ryan Tannehill is one of the league’s most sack-prone QBs. The Dolphins likely will have to score in a high volume and come from behind and really don’t play that way.

Finally some statistical notes:

Mike Evans is second rookie WR since the merger to have three consecutive games of 120-plus receiving yards (2006 Marques Colston). Plus he’s had at least one TD in each of them, too. Yes, Evans is very good and very likely to stay that way. Someone asked me whether they should trade Josh Gordon for Evans in a dynasty league and as much as most of you know how much I love Gordon, the answer was a strong “yes.”

Gray could maybe one day join Fred Jackson on the leader board among undrafted running backs. Jackson needs eight yards to pass Willie Parker for third most, behind Priest Holmes and Foster.

Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Gates are in a race for most seasons with double digit tight end touchdowns (four). Each needs one. My money is on Gronk. My Wall Street Journal colleague Jason Gay had two hilarious tweets about Gronk on Sunday night that I’ll link here  and here and Gronk was a big topic of conversation on the WSJ Sports Retort podcast with Jason last Monday.  I could not agree more that Gronk’s charm is in being fun loving while always delivering on the field beyond any reasonable expectation.