Splitsville: C.J. all the way

Let’s start Splitsville this week by using last week’s results to illustrate again why it’s best to use rate stats and not fantasy points allowed when picking players to start based on their defensive opponent.

Last week, I listed the Chiefs as a run defense to target. The commenters noted that this is absurd because the Chiefs are one of the stingiest defenses in allowing running back points, courtesy of yielding zero rushing TDs.

But I ignored TDs in this assessment because I said they were random events. What would even be the argument for avoiding the Chiefs’ run defense? That they are good at preventing rushing touchdowns while being bad at allowing yards per attempt? Does that make any sense? This is the textbook case of something being descriptive (the Chiefs allowing few running back fantasy points because of a lack of rushing touchdowns) rather than predictive (actually being good at preventing rushing touchdowns). Something, eventually, had to give. And it did last week when Latavius Murray had two rushing TDs in the blink of an eye while the Raiders had the kind of running success last week’s Splitsville envisioned.

[Join FanDuel.com's $1.75M Week 13 fantasy league: $25 to enter; top 14,530 teams paid]

Now this week, again, the Chiefs are being talked about as a tough running matchup for C.J. Anderson owners because of their points allowed to running backs. But this is a joke given they are last in the league, allowing 5.0 yards per carry. So Anderson is actually in matchup heaven this week. What team would you rather go up against than the team allowing a league-worst rate of rushing yards? No team.

You can get the list of the best defenses in allowing yards per pass attempt and yards per rush here at Pro-Football-Reference.  Don’t bother with any other stats when breaking ties in who to start.

Speaking of Anderson, let’s do some quick and dirty ranks not just for this week but for the rest of the season.

[Week 13 rankings: Quarterback | Running Back | Receiver | Tight End | Kicker | DST]

Championship level-one running backs: DeMarco Murray, Le’Veon Bell (goal line carries now), Matt Forte, Jamaal Charles, Eddie Lacy, Anderson (yep, I’m saying that)

Level 2 RBs:  LeSean McCoy, Marshawn Lynch, Justin Forsett, Alfred Morris

That’s it. Those are the only backs that are good bets to really have a championship impact, though of course a number of others are serviceable and could end up having big days for unpredictable reasons.

Championship level-one WRs: Demaryius Thomas, Josh Gordon, Jordy Nelson, Dez Bryant, A.J. Green

Level 2 WRs: Antonio Brown, Calvin Johnson, Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Jr., Randall Cobb, Emmanuel Sanders, T.Y. Hilton

Again, others are good. But these are the guys that you expect to carry you to some degree and who you fear greatly if you’re playing. That doesn’t mean I don’t like anyone else or that the other players are dogs. It’s just that these guys can put up 40-point (level one) or 25-point (level two) games any week without it shocking anyone.

I want to put Julio Jones and Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall in there, really. But I just can’t. If those guys go 4-36, I’m not shocked. And I also like lower-regarded receivers Kenny Stills and Keenan Allen as solid championship contributors. But none are as scary to play right now as Beckham, probably the biggest surprise on my list, who Eli Manning is looking for first on every play (for good reason).

Tight end is easy. Rob Gronkowski is in a tier of his own and then Jimmy Graham and then the others, including the gimpy Julius Thomas at the moment. I have no idea whether Thomas will be fully healthy at any point the rest of the year. If he recovers, he’s the third guy, clearly. The rest of the tight ends? Who cares. Maybe they hurt you, maybe they don’t. I would not lose one second of sleep facing any of them.

The only quarterbacks you should never think of streaming are Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Tom Brady and — I’m hesitating here — Drew Brees. The other guys are not a big deal. I can stream QBs 13 to 17 and be 50/50 to beat whoever is playing, say, Jay Cutler every week. Now if you are in a 12-team league where everyone rosters two QBs just because, well, then, you’re maybe screwed if you don’t have a top guy. But fix these leagues by making your benches shorter or just starting more players. You have to start at least three wide receivers and a flex, for example.

Let me leave you with Happy Thanksgiving wishes. Feel free to note the running backs and wide receivers you are most afraid to face in the playoffs. This gets us away from thinking about our own players, resulting in a more objective list.