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Six storylines to watch on college basketball's opening night
Reigning national champion Villanova, top-ranked Duke and the rest of the AP Top 25 will be in action Friday night when the 2016-17 college basketball season tips off. Here’s a look at six storylines worth following during opening night.
1. Which elite freshmen will impress in their college debut?
Kansas wing Josh Jackson, Rivals.com’s top prospect in the 2016 class, will have a big stage in Honolulu when the third-ranked Jayhawks face 11th-ranked Indiana in one of the marquee games of the night. Jackson is a fiercely competitive 6-foot-7 athletic dynamo whose skill set is reminiscent of Andrew Wiggins but with the assertive mentality of an alpha dog.
The other must-see game of the night also features a handful of heralded freshmen. Forward Miles Bridges is the centerpiece of a heralded Michigan State class that may be the best Tom Izzo has ever signed. Guards Rawle Alkins and Kobi Simmons and skilled Finnish forward Lauri Markkanen will be asked to shoulder more of the scoring load than expected early on for Arizona with Allonzo Trier not expected to be in uniform against the Spartans.
Kentucky’s stable of talented freshmen will also make their debuts when the Wildcats host Stephen F. Austin. Powerfully built Bam Adebayo is a one-man solution to Kentucky’s lack of interior toughness last season, while high-scoring Malik Monk and speedy DeAaron Fox will team with Isaiah Briscoe to form a potent backcourt. Duke has the only freshman class touted more than Kentucky’s, but forward Harry Giles and center Marques Bolden are both out with injuries, leaving only point guard Frank Jackson and swingman Jayson Tatum to make their debuts Friday against Marist.
2. Will Arizona or Michigan State handle adversity better?
When the 10th-ranked Wildcats and 12th-ranked Spartans meet Friday night in Honolulu, neither will feature the full contingent of players they once expected to have.
Michigan State’s three top big men all suffered preseason injuries, forcing the Spartans to likely start prized 6-foot-7 freshman Miles Bridges at power forward and 6-foot-6 former walk-on Kenny Goins at center. Arizona will be without leading returning scorer Allonzo Trier, who is expected to remain in Tucson because of an unspecified eligibility issue, and former five-star prospect Ray Smith, who won’t be available either after suffering a career-ending third ACL tear.
What those absences create is some major frontcourt mismatches. Goins will have a difficult time contesting the shot of 7-footer Dusan Ristic on the low block, but 7-foot Lauri Markkanen won’t have it any easier trying to stay in front of Bridges off the dribble at the other end. For Arizona,winning the battle in the paint will be critical because the Wildcats may be outmanned on the perimeter without Trier. Freshmen Rawle Alkins and Kobi Simmons will have to provide much of Arizona’s backcourt scoring in Trier’s absence.
3. Will Kansas or Indiana make an early statement?
Third-ranked Kansas is a trendy Final Four pick and a heavy favorite to win its 13th straight Big 12 title. Eleventh-ranked Indiana has been hailed as a contender both in the Big Ten and nationally. One of these two heavyweights will leave Honolulu with a statement-making win on Friday night when they meet in the nightcap of the Armed Forces Classic.
The team with the stronger backcourt is certainly Kansas thanks to the return of starters Frank Mason and Devonte Graham and the arrival of ultra-talented wing Josh Jackson. Throw in NBA prospect Svi Mykhailiuk and promising Lagerald Vick off the bench, and the Jayhawks have enough depth to occasionally dabble with some four-guard looks if Jackson can prove he can defend opposing power forwards.
Indiana will miss Yogi Ferrell’s scoring, distributing and leadership at point guard, but the Hoosiers could have the advantage in the paint. Former McDonald’s All-American big man Thomas Bryant would likely have been a first-round draft pick had he turned pro last spring, rapidly blossoming defensive standout O.G. Anunoby may evolve into one as well by next June and Juwan Morgan will provide quality depth off the bench.
4. What’s Friday night’s most compelling under-the-radar game?
One year after missing the NCAA tournament despite 27 wins, a regular season sweep of Gonzaga and a co-WCC title, Saint Mary’s knows what’s at stake in November and December. The Gaels have to prove they’re NCAA tournament-caliber against non-league competition in case the selection committee undervalues the WCC again.
The first chance for a statement win arrives Friday when Saint Mary’s gets a visit from a Nevada program on the rise under Eric Musselman. The Wolf Pack could emerge as the top challenger to San Diego State in the Mountain West if Cameron Oliver blossoms into a 20-point, 10-rebound threat and newcomers Marcus Marshall, Devearl Ramsey, Jordan Caroline and Leland King bolster the supporting cast.
The key to Friday’s game could be whether Nevada can speed up the tempo and disrupt Saint Mary’s methodical but ultra-efficient attack. The Wolf Pack were among the Mountain West’s top defensive teams last season, but the Gaels return every rotation player from a team that shot 41 percent behind the arc and 56.4 percent inside it, both top 10 nationally.
5. Which small-conference power could upset a higher-profile team?
With four starters back from last year’s 29-win Southern Conference Championship team including standouts Casey Jones and Tre McLean, Chattanooga has a realistic chance of exceeding last year’s achievements. The Mocs will get their first chance to prove themselves on Friday night when they visit a youthful Tennessee team that probably would have been better off opening with a less dangerous opponent.
The Vols have eight newcomers on their roster and only three juniors or seniors, making this a rebuilding season that could pave the way for future success under Rick Barnes. Freshman guards Lamonte Turner and Kwe Parker have potential, as do forwards Admiral Schofield and Grant Williams, however, they’ll have their work cut out for them on Friday night.
In addition to Tennessee, Stanford should be on high alert when it meets Harvard in Shanghai. Questions about for a Cardinal backcourt lacking outside shooters or a proven point guard, while Harvard should be much improved thanks to the arrival of a Top 25 recruiting class and the return of starting point guard Siyani Chambers, who missed all of last season with an ACL tear.
6. Which new coach can make the biggest splash in his debut?
Of all the new coaches hired last spring, Vanderbilt’s Bryce Drew has the best chance to win over his new fan base on opening night. The Commodores meet Marquette at the Veteran’s Classic in Annapolis, a matchup that gives both programs a chance for an early resume-building win over a power-conference opponent.
While Vanderbilt will miss point guard Wade Baldwin and center Damian Jones, the Commodores will try to replace them with a roster loaded with outside shooters. Matthew Fisher-Davis, Jeff Roberson and Riley LaChance are each among the SEC’s top 3-point threats and even skilled center Luke Kornet can force opposing shot blockers out of the paint with his jump shot.
It has been three years since Marquette made the NCAA tournament, and the Golden Eagles have a realistic chance to end that drought despite Henry Ellenson’s departure to the NBA. Guard Haanif Cheatham can score in a variety of ways, transfers Katin Reinhardt and Andrew Rowsey will further bolster the backcourt and senior Luke Fischer provides badly needed interior scoring, rebounding and shot blocking.
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Jeff Eisenberg is the editor of The Dagger on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at daggerblog@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
